Forecast for the Cameroon’s Residential Electricity Demand Based on the Multilinear Regression Model
Forecast for the Cameroon’s Residential Electricity Demand Based on the Multilinear Regression Model作者机构：Institute of Technology University of Douala Douala Cameroon Higher Teacher Training College University of Yaoundé I Yaoundé Cameroon
出 版 物：《Energy and Power Engineering》 (能源与动力工程（英文）)
年 卷 期：2020年第12卷第5期
页 面：182-192页
学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学]
主 题：Modeling of the Electricity Demand Forecast Residential Sector VAR Model Cameroon
摘 要：The electricity needs of populations in Cameroon are increasing and are still very inadequate. Companies, public buildings and households are facing frequent blackout which constrain development and social well-being. Therefore, the present work tried to forecast the electricity demand in the residential sector in Cameroon, in order to contribute significantly to the mastery of electricity consumption and highlight decision-makers in this sector. Six macroeconomics parameters covering the period 1994-2014 are used for these issues. Stationarity tests within gross domestic product, gross domestic product per capita, electricity consumption, population and numbers of subscribers and households respectively;reveal that all the series are I(1). Thus, the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model has been retained to forecast the electricity demand until 2020. The cusum test and the cusum of squared test attest the stability of that model with a margin of error of 0.02%. Previsions are then more reliable and show that the electric request will skip from 1721 GWh in 2014 to more than 2481 GWh in 2020 approximatively, following a growing yearly rate of 5.36%. In order to reach its emergence, Cameroon ought to speed up its production in the domain of hydroelectric and thermal grid in order to meet the requirements in electric power in short and long term.
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