Lifetime prediction based on Gamma processes from accelerated degradation data

作     者：Wang Haowei Xu Tingxue Mi Qiaoli 

作者机构：Graduate Students’ Brigade Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University Department of Ordnance Science and Technology Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University 

出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 (中国航空学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第28卷第1期

页      面：172-179页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070104[理学-应用数学] 0701[理学-数学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61273058) 

主　　题：conjugate accelerated prior lifetime Bayesian determining illustrated likelihood acceleration fitting 

摘      要：Accelerated degradation test is a useful approach to predict the product lifetime at the normal use stress level, especially for highly reliable products. Two kinds of the lifetime prediction based on Gamma processes were studied. One was to predict the lifetime of the population from accelerated degradation data, and the other was to predict the lifetime of an individual by taking the accelerated degradation data as prior information. For an extensive application, the Gamma process with a time transformation and random effects was considered. A novel contribution is that a deducing method for determining the relationships between the shape and scale parameters of Gamma processes and accelerated stresses was presented. When predicting the lifetime of an individual, Bayesian inference methods were adopted to improve the prediction accuracy, in which the conjugate prior distribution and the non-conjugate prior distribution of random parameters were studied. The conjugate prior distribution only considers the random effect of the scale parameter while the non-conjugate prior distribution considers the random effects of both the scale and shape parameter. The application and usefulness of the proposed method was demonstrated by the accelerated degradation data of carbon-film resistors.