Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad

作     者：Kat S.Rock Ching-I Huang Ronald E.Crump Paul R.Bessell Paul E.Brown Inaki Tirados Philippe Solano Marina Antillon Albert Picado Severin Mbainda Justin Darnas Emily H.Crowley Steve J.Torr Mallaye Peka 

作者机构：Mathematics InstituteUniversity of WarwickAcademic Loop RoadCoventryCV47ALUK Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology&Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research(SBIDER)University of WarwickAcademic Loop RoadCoventryCV47ALUK Independent ConsultantEdinburghUK Department of Vector BiologyLiverpool School of Tropical MedicineLiverpoolUK Institut de Recherche pour le DéveloppementUMR INTERTRYP IRD-CIRADUniversitéde Montpellier34398MontpellierFrance Swiss Tropical and Public Health InstituteBaselSwitzerland University of BaselBaselSwitzerland Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics(FIND)GenevaSwitzerland Programme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine(PNLTHA)MoundouChad 

出 版 物：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》 (贫困所致传染病（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第11卷第1期

页      面：34-46页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation(www.gatesfoundation.org)through the Human African Trypanosomiasis Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy(HAT MEPP)project[OPP1177824 and INV-005121](CH,REC,PEB,MA,EHC,KSR) through the NTD Modelling Consortium[OPP1184344](KSR),and the Trypa-NO!project[INV-008412 and INV-001785](PRB,AP,SJT,PS and IT) SJT received funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council(www.bbsrc.ukri.org Grants BB/S01375X/1,BB/S00243X/1,BB/P005888/1).The funders had no role in study design,data collection and analysis,decision to publish,or preparation of the manuscript 

主　　题：Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) Modelling Elimination of transmission Validation Tsetse Vector control Glossina Diagnostics 

摘      要：Background:In recent years,a programme of vector control,screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis(gHAT)infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of *** represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse,we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model,fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by *** present study outlines refinements to the model to:(1)Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting;(2)quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction;and(3)predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different ***:Our previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data(2000-2019)and a series of model *** include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method(increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured).A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the ***:We estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015,by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection,and 1.5-fold for stage *** find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific(95%credible interval(CI):99.9-100%,Specificity=99.9%),the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false *** also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting(95%CI:96.1-99.6%,Reduction=99.1%)is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring *** line with previous results,the model suggests that transmission was