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Supplier Development under Supply Risk and Reputational Risk

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2024年第3期33卷 360-388页

作者： Zhaowei Miao Yu Wang Rongjing Zhu Lili Shangguan school of management Xiamen UniversityXiamen361005China school of Economics and management Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China

This paper considers the supplier investment decision-making problem in a supply chain consisting of an original equipment manufacturer(OEM),a global supplier,and a local *** reduce dependence on global suppliers and improve supply stability,we develop a differential game model to investigate the optimal investment decisions of the OEM towards the local supplier under different risk scenarios and the impact of different risks on the optimal *** results show that investment efficiency and risks have a significant impact on OEM investment ***,when the OEM has higher investment efficiency,investing in the local supplier is profitable for the OEM;conversely,when the investment efficiency of the OEM is lower,it does not *** addition,an increase in the supply risk of the global supplier will lower the entry threshold for OEM investment,but an increase in the supply risk of the local supplier and the reputational risk of both will increase this threshold,meaning that only the OEM with significantly higher investment efficiency can profit.

关键词： Supplier investment supplier development supply risk reputational risk dual sourcing

Complex adaptive system theory,agent-based modeling,and simulation in dominant technology formation

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2024年第1期35卷 130-153页

作者： ZHANG Ruihan SUN Bing Glorious Sun school of Business and management Donghua UniversityShanghai 200051China school of Economics and management Harbin Engineering UniversityHarbin 150001China

Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and ***,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical *** results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and ***,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical *** is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different *** study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.

关键词： complex adaptive system theory agent-based modeling and simulation dominant technology socio-technical landscape adaptation-choice

Advanced Algorithm for Parameters Estimation of Negative Binomial Distribution with High Dimensional Sparse Group Structure

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2024年第5期37卷 2173-2195页

作者： LI Meiqi JIN Baisuo school of management University of Science and Technology of China

Negative binomial regression is a powerful technique for modeling count data, particularly when dealing with overdispersion. However, estimating the parameters for large-dimensional sparse models is challenging due to the complexity of optimizing the mean and dispersion parameter of the negative binomial distribution. To address this issue, the authors propose a novel approach that employs two iterations of the majorize-minimize(MM) algorithm, one for estimating the dispersion parameter and the other for estimating the mean parameters. These approaches improve the convergence speed and stability of the algorithm. The authors also use group penalty for variable selection, which enhances the accuracy and efficiency of the algorithm. The proposed method provides an explicit solution,simplifies the iteration process, and maintains good stability while ensuring algorithm ***, the authors apply the proposed algorithm to the zero-inflated model and demonstrate its promising predictive performance on specific data sets. The research has important implications for count data modeling and analysis in various fields, such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics.

关键词： Group structure majorize-minimize (MM) negative binomial

Customer Joining Behavior and Regulation Strategy in Visible Multi-Server Queues with Synchronous Vacations of Partial Servers

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2024年第3期37卷 1209-1232页

作者： SUN Wei WANG Hao XIE Xumeng LI Shiyong school of Economics and management Yanshan UniversityQinhuangdao 066004China

This paper studies customer joining behavior and system regulation strategy in nonexhaustive visible M/M/m queues with synchronous vacations of a part of the *** this part of the servers are idle,they take multiple vacations simultaneously(vacation period).Until there are customers waiting in the queue,they are reactivated and all servers are busy or idle(busy period).The authors call this part of the servers as“partial servers”.In view of the fully visible queue and the almost visible queue,the authors obtain customers’equilibrium joining threshold strategies and their socially optimal joining threshold strategies,respectively,and observe that customer joining behavior in equilibrium generally makes the system overcrowded,which makes the equilibrium social welfare lower than the optimal social *** regulation,interestingly,for optimizing social welfare,the system manager hopes not only customers arriving in vacation period pay attention to the number of partial servers,but also customers arriving in busy period should care about it rather than ***,arranging more servers for vacation does not necessarily lead to the decrease of social welfare on condition that the number of partial servers is close to *** for the information advantage of the fully visible case,it is not obvious for increasing social welfare and even unfavorable to servers’profit unless the number of partial servers is big ***,given the different composition of social welfare,there exists the optimal number of partial servers and the optimal arrival rate of customers for maximizing social welfare.

关键词： Customer behavior non-exhaustive service partial servers regulation strategy synchronous vacations visible queue

Non-Convex Optimization of Resource Allocation in Fog Computing Using Successive Approximation

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2024年第2期37卷 805-840页

作者： LI Shiyong LIU Huan LI Wenzhe SUN Wei school of Economics and management Yanshan UniversityQinhuangdao 066000China

Fog computing can deliver low delay and advanced IT services to end users with substantially reduced energy ***,with soaring demands for resource service and the limited capability of fog nodes,how to allocate and manage fog computing resources properly and stably has become the ***,the paper investigates the utility optimization-based resource allocation problem between fog nodes and end users in fog *** authors first introduce four types of utility functions due to the diverse tasks executed by end users and build the resource allocation model aiming at utility ***,for only the elastic tasks,the convex optimization method is applied to obtain the optimal results;for the elastic and inelastic tasks,with the assistance of Jensen’s inequality,the primal non-convex model is approximated to a sequence of equivalent convex optimization problems using successive approximation ***,a two-layer algorithm is proposed that globally converges to an optimal solution of the original ***,numerical simulation results demonstrate its superior performance and *** with other works,the authors emphasize the analysis for non-convex optimization problems and the diversity of tasks in fog computing resource allocation.

关键词： Fog computing non-convex optimization optimal resource allocation successive approximation method utility function

Modeling the Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles in China Considering Subsidy Policies

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Journal of Systems Science and Information 2024年第4期12卷 457-475页

作者： Lingling PEI Ruijin ZHAI Minghuan SHOU Jingzhong LUO school of management Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics school of management Hangzhou Dianzi University

The new energy vehicle(NEV) subsidy policy introduced in China in 2013 has significantly boosted the adoption and sales of NEVs, with sales increasing more than 40-fold. However, the mechanisms by which subsidy policies influence the diffusion of NEVs in China remain unclear, posing challenges for governments to design future strategies. Thus, the primary objective of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of subsidy policy on the diffusion of new energy vehicles and to forecast future development trends using the grey Bass model, a predictive model suited for new product adoption forecasting. Our findings suggest that while the sales of NEVs in China will continue to rise,the growth rate will slow. Key milestones include the first inflection points for new energy vehicles and battery electric vehicles, anticipated in 2025 and 2024 respectively, with peak sales expected in 2028 and 2027. These insights are crucial for manufacturers, enabling them to adjust their production strategies timely and enhance their resilience in the market.

关键词： grey predictive model grey Bass model subsidy policy new energy vehicle battery electric vehicle

Dynamics of information diffusion and disease transmission in time-varying multiplex networks with asymmetric activity levels

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Chinese Physics B 2024年第3期33卷 690-699页

作者：谢笑笑霍良安董雅芳程英英 Business school University of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghai 200093China school of Intelligent Emergency management University of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghai 200093China school of management Henan University of Science and TechnologyLuoyang 471023China

While the interaction between information and disease in static networks has been extensively investigated,many studies have ignored the characteristics of network *** this study,we construct a new two-layer coupling model to explore the interactions between information and *** upper layer describes the diffusion of disease-related information,and the lower layer represents the disease *** then use power-law distributions to examine the influence of asymmetric activity levels on dynamic propagation,revealing a mapping relationship characterizing the interconnected propagation of information and diseases among partial nodes within the ***,we derive the disease outbreak threshold by using the microscopic Markov-chain approach(MMCA).Finally,we perform extensive Monte Carlo(MC)numerical simulations to verify the accuracy of our theoretical *** findings indicate that the activity levels of individuals in the disease transmission layer have a more significant influence on disease transmission compared with the individual activity levels in the information diffusion ***,reducing the damping factor can delay disease outbreaks and suppress disease transmission,while improving individual quarantine measures can contribute positively to disease *** study provides valuable insights into policymakers for developing outbreak prevention and control strategies.

关键词： information diffusion disease transmission asymmetric activity levels quarantine strength

Research on the Asymmetric Effect of Fixed-Asset Investment on China's Primary Energy Production in the Context of Energy Transformation

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2024年第3期37卷 1163-1183页

作者： CHAI Jian HE Peng ZHANG Xiaokong HOU Yamin school of Economics and management Xidian UniversityXi'an 710126China

Under China’s“Dual Carbon”target(DCT),“clean replacement”on the energy supply side and“electric energy replacement”on the energy consumption side are the ways to achieve energy ***,energy projects have a long construction period,complex technology categories,and investment risks that greatly affect the development of energy *** judging the effect of investment changes on primary energy production is of great practical significance to the realization of the *** on this,NARDL and TVP-SV-VAR models are innovatively used to reveal the nonlinear effect of fixed-asset investment on China’s primary energy *** results show that the marginal effect of investment growth on coal production is about 1.44 times that of investment ***,the marginal effect of oil and gas investment growth is about 1.21times that of investment *** to the influence of resource constraints,China’s traditional fossil energy still has varying degrees of path dependence on the investment-driven development *** non-fossil energy,investment in hydropower and nuclear power has an inverse correlation with the change in *** marginal efficiency and diseconomies of scale have hindered the development of the hydropower and nuclear power *** addition,the asymmetric effect is not yet significant for the short development time and technical constraints of wind and solar *** the impulse response results,the impact curves of investment in wind and solar power are generally positive,and investment has different degrees of time-delay and time-varying effects on various energy production,which verifies the heterogeneity of investment adjustment mechanisms in different energy industries.

关键词： "Dual Carbon"target fixed-asset investment primary energy NARDL nonlinearity

Dynamic Analysis of Incentive Policy Impacts on Recycling of Retired Batteries for Electric Vehicles

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Journal of Systems Science and Information 2024年第4期12卷 491-514页

作者： Cuixia WANG Lang WEI school of Information management Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics school of Economics and management Hunan College of Information

Electric Vehicles(EVs), as a low-carbon means of transportation, have promptly become popular worldwide in the past decade. Since the lifespan of batteries is limited, massive of Electric Vehicle Batteries(EVBs) are being retired, resulting in a rapid increase in the demand for the recycling of retired EVBs in recent years. However, due to high recycling costs and immature recycling technologies, EV manufacturers are facing significant challenges in recycling retired EVBs. China, as the country with the largest number of EV users in the world, is exploring effective incentive policies for the recycling of retired EVBs. In this context, we developed a system dynamics model to analyze the impact of incentive polices such as, recycling subsidies, technological progress, and carbon trading on the retired EVBs recycling. Results show that: 1) recycling subsidies can improve the recycling ratios quickly in the short term, and dynamic subsidies are more efficient than static subsidies; 2) the policy of technological advancement can reduce the recovery and cascade utilization cost, thus having a positive impact on battery recycling, but the policy effect has a time-delay; 3) the carbon trading policy is unable to promote efficient recycling due to the current low carbon prices; 4) dynamic subsidy and technological advancement policies complement each other, therefore, the combination of these two policies is the best way to promote the recycling of retired EVBs and reduce carbon emissions. It is hoped that this study will contribute to the ongoing debate on policies for the industrialization of retired EVBs recycling.

关键词： electric vehicles retired battery recycling policy impact system dynamics