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THE WORLD meteoROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION FOURTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL PROCESSES(IWTCLP-IV): A SUMMARY

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2018年第2期7卷 77-84页

作者： ROBERT F.ROGERS KEVIN CHEUNG RUSSELL L.ELSBERRY NADAO KOHNO MARIE-DOMINIQUE LEROUX PETER OTTO NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division Macquarie University University of Colorado Colorado Springs Japan meteorological Agency Meteo-France Bureau of meteorology

The Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) was held in Macao, China from 5-7 December 2017. The workshop was organized by the World meteorological Organization(WMO) Expert Team on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes in partnership with the WMO Tropical Cyclone Program. The workshop provided a forum for discussion between researchers and forecasters on the current status of tropical cyclone landfall processes and on priorities and opportunities for research. More than 60 leading research scientists and warning specialists working on topics related to tropical cyclone landfall examined current knowledge, forecasting and research trends from an integrated global perspective. The workshop offered a number of recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different tropical cyclone af fected regions. The recommendations emanating from the workshop will be presented at the upcoming Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)(Hawaii, USA, 3-7 December 2018).

关键词： tropical cyclone landfall forecasting and research World meteorological Organization Workshop recommendations

Forecasting tropical cyclone rainfall and flooding hazards and impacts

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第2期12卷 100-112页

作者： Alex Lamers Sunitha Devi.S Monica Sharma Robbie Berg Jose Manuel Galvez Zifeng Yu Tarik Kriat Sareti Cardos David Grant Lorenzo A.Moron NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center USA India meteorological Department India Shanghai Typhoon Institute CMAChina LaReunion RSMC Meteo-FranceFrance Mexico meteorological Service USA Bureau of meteorology Australia PAGASA Philippines

This review summarizes the rapporteur report on advances in monitoring and forecasting of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones(TCs)and its impact during 2014–18,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia during 5th–9th December 2022.Major physical processes that can modulate TC rainfall distribution,including topography,storm motion,vertical wind shear,and intensity,along with the fundamental physics of rain bands and clouds as simulated by numerical models,diurnal variation of rainfall,and various synoptic and mesoscale features controlling the rainfall distribution are briefly discussed.Improvements to the dynamic core and physical processes in global models are providing useable forecasts nearly up to 7 days.This report also summarizes,some tools that have been developed to predict TC rainfall.Lately there is a tendency for operational forecasting centers to utilize multi-model ensemble systems for rainfall forecasting that demonstrate superior performance than individual models,ensemble members,or even single model ensembles.Major impacts include pluvial and fluvial floods,and landslides.The techniques developed by various forecasting centers to assist in predicting and communicating the impacts associated with these events are also presented in this report.

关键词： Rainfall Flooding Storm size Topography

OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 2:FORECASTS BY OPERATIONAL AGENCIES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第4期8卷 226-239页

作者： Joseph B.Courtney Sébastien Langlade Stephen Barlow Thomas Birchard John A.Knaff S.D.Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Charles R.Sampson Udai Shimada Amit Singh Bureau of meteorology Australia Meteo-France La RéunionFrance Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC) USA Central Pacific Hurricane Centre(CPHC) USA NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA India meteorological Department(IMD) India Meteo-France France Korea meteorological Administration(KMA) Korea National Hurricane Centre(NHC) USA Naval Research Laboratory(NRL) USA Japanese meteorological Agency(JMA) Japan Fiji meteorological Service(FMS) Fiji

This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting challenges.It is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity change rapid intensification

RECENT PROGRESS IN STORM SURGE FORECASTING

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2018年第2期7卷 128-139页

作者： NADAO KOHNO SHISHIR K.DUBE MIKHAIL ENTEL S.H.M.FAKHRUDDIN DIANA GREENSLADE MARIE-DOMINIQUE LEROUX JAMIE RHOME NGUYEN BA THUY Japan meteorological Agency Amity University Rajasthan Bureau of meteorology Tonkin +Taylor International Ltd National Hurricane Center Meteo-France National Center for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting

This report briefly summarizes recent progress in storm surge forecasts, one of topics discussed during the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Process(IWTCLP 4) held during 5-8 December, 2017. In the workshop, improvement of storm surge forecasting system was mainly discussed with relevance to the problem of estimating the impacts of tropical cyclone landfall.To deal with storm surges, accurate TC condition(predictions and forecasts) as input, reasonable storm surge predictions(with forecasting systems), and effective advisories/warnings(i.e. useful information products) are necessary. Therefore, we need to improve storm surge related matters systematically: input, prediction system, and ef fective information.This report tries to highlight recent progress in the field of storm surges in relation to three key points: improvement in storm surge forecasting models/system, TC conditions as input for storm surge predictions, and informative products for end users.

关键词： storm surges tropical cyclone forecast system warning landfall

RETRIEVING ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE FROM NOAA-15 ATOVS MEASUREMENTS

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2001年第4期15卷 477-484页

作者：吴雪宝 Lydie LAV ANANT 张凤英冉茂农 Pascal BRUNEL National Satellite meteorological Center (NSMC) Meteo-France/CMS Lannion.BP14722300France National Satellite meteorological Center (NSMC)1Beijing 100081

This paper describes briefly the sounding capabilities of TOVS/ATOVS onboard the NOAA polar-orbiting meteorological satellites,followed by a more detailed review of the retrieval schemes.The ICI physical retrieval scheme with some adaptations is implemented in our experiment.The analyses of the Chinese regional NWP model are utilized to create a rolling library of initial guess field.Retrieval results validated against both NWP analyses and radiosondes indicate good agreement between ICI retrievals and conventional observations.Preliminary result from the PC-ATOVS Windows display system of NSMC will also be shown.

关键词： ATOVS preprocessing ICI(Imagery Coupled Inversion)physical retrieval method numerical weather prediction initial guess field atmospheric temperature profile

Mineralogical characteristics of soil dust from source regions in northern China

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Particuology 2009年第6期7卷 507-512页

作者： Zhenxing Shen Sandrine Caquineau Junji Cao Xiaoye Zhang Yuemei Han Annie Gaudichet Laurent Gomes Department of Environmental Science and Engineering Xi'an Jiaotong University Xi'an China SKLLQG Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi'an China Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement 32 av. H. Varagnat 93143 Bondy cedex France LISA UMR-CNRS-7583 61 av. de Gal de Gaulle. 94010 Creteil France Meteo-France/CNRM URA I357 42 av. G. Coriolis 31057 Toulouse cedex France

Mineral compositions of aerosol particles were investigated at four sites （Aksu, Dunhuang, Zhenbeitai, and Tongliao） in desert regions of northern China from March to May in 2001 and 2002 during the intensive field campaign period of ACE-Asia （Aerosol Characterization Experiments-Asia）. The X-ray diffraction （XRD） results show the main minerals for Asian dust are illite, chlorite, kaolinite, quartz, feldspar, calcite, and dolomite. Gypsum, hornblende, and halite are also detected in several samples. Semi-quantitative mineralogical data of aerosol samples show that carbonate content decreases from western to eastern source areas; that is, soil dust collected at western source area sites of Dunhuang and Aksu are enriched with carbonate, while northeastern source area site of Tongliao is associated with low carbonate content. But the spatial distribution of feldspar exhibits a different pattern as compared to carbonate, increasing from the western to the eastern sources. The total clay content is significantly higher （73% in average） at the deposition site of Changwu than those at source areas. Air-mass back trajectory studies for the three dust storm events observed at Changwu, showed that soil dust transport pathways were as expected from carbonate content for the source identification, further demonstrating that carbonate was a useful tracer for eolian dust on regional scale in northern China.

关键词： Soil dust Mineralogical composition Carbonate Tracer

Usingvery long-range terrestriallaser scanner to analyze the temporal consistency of the snowpack distribution in a high mountain environment

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Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第5期14卷 823-842页

作者： Juan I.LOPEZ-MORENO Jesús REVUELTO E.ALONSO-GONZALEZ Alba SANMIGUEL-VALLELADO Steven R.FASSNACHT Jeffrey DEEMS Enrique MORAN-TEJEDA Pyrenean Institute of Ecology CSICZaragozaSpain Meteo-France-CNRS CNRM(UMR3589)Centre d'Etudes de la NeigeGrenobleFrance Colorado State University Fort CollinsColoradoUSA National Snow and Ice Data Center NSlDCBoulderColorado University of Balearic Islands MallorcaSpain

This study demonstrated the usefulness of very long-range terrestrial laser scanning(TLS) for analysis of the spatial distribution of a snowpack, to distances up to 3000 m, one of the longest measurement range reported to date. Snow depth data were collected using a terrestrial laser scanner during 11 periods of snow accumulation and melting,over three snow seasons on a Pyrenean hillslopecharacterized by a large elevational gradient, steep slopes, and avalanche occurrence. The maximum and mean absolute snow depth error found was 0.5-0.6 and 0.2-0.3 m respectively, which may result problematic for areas with a shallow snowpack, but it is sufficiently accurate to determine snow distribution patterns in areas characterized by a thick snowpack. The results indicated that in most cases there was temporal consistency in the spatial distribution of thesnowpack, even in different years. The spatial patterns were particularly similar amongst thesurveys conducted during the period dominated by snow accumulation(generally until end of April), or amongst those conducted during the period dominated by melting processes(generally after mid of April or early May). Simple linear correlation analyses for the 11 survey dates, and the application of Random Forests analysis to two days representative of snow accumulation and melting periods indicated the importance of topography to the snow distribution. The results also highlight that elevation and the Topographic Position index(TPI) were the main variables explaining the snow distribution, especially during periods dominated by melting. The intra-and inter-annual spatial consistency of the snowpack distribution suggests that the geomorphological processes linked to presence/absence of snow cover act in a similar way in the long term, and that these spatial patternscan be easily identifiedthrough several years of adequate monitoring.

关键词： Snow Terrestrial laser scanner(TLS) Topography Random Forests Spatial distribution Pyrenees

OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 1:RECENT ADVANCES IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第3期8卷 123-133页

作者： Joseph B.Courtney Sébastien Langlade Charles R.Sampson John A.Knaff Thomas Birchard Stephen Barlow S.D.Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Udai Shimada Bureau of meteorology Australia Meteo-France La RéunionFrance Naval Research Laboratory(NRL) USA NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA Central Pacific Hurricane Centre(CPHC) USA Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC) USA India meteorological Department(IMD) India Korea meteorological Administration(KMA) Korea National Hurricane Centre(NHC) USA Japanese meteorological Agency(JMA) Japan

This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in Hawaii in 2018.Recent advances and major changes over the past four years are presented,with a special focus on forecasting rapid intensity changes.Although intensity change remains one of the most difficult aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting,objective guidance has shown some improvement.The greatest improvements are realized when consensus methods are utilized,especially those that blend statistical-dynamical based guidance with dynamical ocean-coupled regional models.These models become even more skillful when initialized with inner core observational data.Continued improvement and availability of intensity guidance along with associated forecaster training are expected to deliver forecasting improvements in the future.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity change rapid intensification

Science and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall

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Science Bulletin 2019年第21期64卷 1557-1561页

作者： Yali Luo Liye Li Richard HJohnson Chih-Pei Chang Lianshou Chen Wai-Kin Wong Jing Chen Kalli Furtado John LMcBride Ajit Tyagi Nanette Lomarda Thierry Lefort Esperanza O.Cayanan State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China HIWeather International Coordination Office Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Colorado State University Fort CollinsCO 80523USA Naval Postgraduate School MontereyCA 93943USA Hong Kong Observatory.Hong Kong 999077 China Numerical Prediction Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office ExeterDevon EXI 3PBUK Bureau of meteorology MelbourneVictoria 3001Australia India meteorological Department Noida 201303India World Weather Research Division World Meteorological OrganizationGeneva 1211Switzerland Meteo-France Toulouse 31000France Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Quezon City 1100Philippines

With the increasing incidence of heavy rainfall events,particularly over the monsoon regions,the highly dense populations are more vulnerable[1].Research initiatives on observation,modeling,and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall have been promoted actively by World Weather Research Programme's(WWRP)Working Group on Tropical meteorology Research(WGTMR)of the World meteorological Organization(WMO)since 2010.Series of monsoon-heavy-rainfall workshops were held in Beijing(2011),Petaling Jaya(2012),and New Delhi(2015)to benefit scientists worldwide and forecasters from the National meteorological and Hydrological Services.An international Research and Development Project,namely,the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment(SCMREX)[2]was established in 2013 to coordinate field campaign experiments and to conduct scientific research on presummer(April-June)heavy rainfall processes in southern China.

关键词： China. rainfall monsoon