OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 1:RECENT ADVANCES IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE

作     者：Joseph B.Courtney Sébastien Langlade Charles R.Sampson John A.Knaff Thomas Birchard Stephen Barlow S.D.Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Udai Shimada 

作者机构：Bureau of MeteorologyAustralia Meteo-FranceLa RéunionFrance Naval Research Laboratory(NRL)USA NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and ResearchUSA Central Pacific Hurricane Centre(CPHC)USA Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC)USA India Meteorological Department(IMD)India Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA)Korea National Hurricane Centre(NHC)USA Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA)Japan 

出 版 物：《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》 (热带气旋研究与评论（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第8卷第3期

页      面：123-133页

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

主　　题：tropical cyclone intensity change rapid intensification 

摘      要：This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in Hawaii in *** advances and major changes over the past four years are presented,with a special focus on forecasting rapid intensity *** intensity change remains one of the most difficult aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting,objective guidance has shown some *** greatest improvements are realized when consensus methods are utilized,especially those that blend statistical-dynamical based guidance with dynamical ocean-coupled regional *** models become even more skillful when initialized with inner core observational *** improvement and availability of intensity guidance along with associated forecaster training are expected to deliver forecasting improvements in the future.