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Revisiting classical SIR modelling in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第1期8卷 72-83页

作者： Leonid Kalachev Erin L.Landguth Jon Graham Mathematical Sciences University of MontanaMissoulaUSA Center for Population health Research School of Public and Community Health SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaUSA

Background:Classical infectious disease models during epidemics have widespread usage,from predicting the probability of new infections to developing vaccination plans for informing policy decisions and public health ***,it is important to correctly classify reported data and understand how this impacts estimation of model *** COVID-19 pandemic has provided an abundant amount of data that allow for thorough testing of disease modelling assumptions,as well as how we think about classical infectious disease modelling ***:We aim to assess the appropriateness of model parameter estimates and preiction results in classical infectious disease compartmental modelling frameworks given available data types(infected,active,quarantined,and recovered cases)for situations where just one data type is available to fit the *** main focus is on how model prediction results are dependent on data being assigned to the right model ***:We first use simulated data to explore parameter reliability and prediction capability with three formulations of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed(SIR)modelling *** then explore two applications with reported data to assess which data and models are sufficient for reliable model parameter estimation and prediction accuracy:a classical influenza outbreak in a boarding school in England and COVID-19 data from the fall of 2020 in Missoula county,Montana,***:We demonstrated the magnitude of parameter estimation errors and subsequent prediction errors resulting from data misclassification to model compartments with simulated *** showed that prediction accuracy in each formulation of the classical disease modelling framework was largely determined by correct data classification versus *** a classical example of influenza epidemics in an England boarding school,we argue that the Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered(SIQR)model is more appropriat

关键词： Basic disease reproduction number Communicable disease control Coronavirus COVID-19 Disease transmission Epidemics Epidemiology Influenza data Mathematical models Montana SIR models

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Key Social Determinants to Narrow the Gap between health-adjusted Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy in Megacities

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Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2022年第9期35卷 773-781页

作者： XI Jun Yan CHEN Yuan Yuan ZHANG Yu Qin LUO Ao DU Zhi Cheng LIANG Bo Heng DONG Hang LIN Xiao QIN Peng Zhe HAO Yuan Tao Department of Medical Statistics School of Public HealthSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080GuangdongChina Department of Chronic Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou 510440GuangdongChina institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou 511430GuangdongChina Peking University Center for public health and Epidemic Preparedness&Response Peking UniversityBeijing 100191China Sun Yat-sen Global health institute Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080GuangdongChina Center for health Information Research Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080GuangdongChina

Objective Improvement in the quality of life is reflected in the narrowing of the gap between healthadjusted life expectancy(HALE)and life expectancy(LE).The effect of megacity expansion on narrowing the gap is rarely *** study aimed to disclose this potential *** Annual life tables were constructed from identified death records and population counts from multiple administrative sources in Guangzhou,China,from 2010 to *** regression was used to evaluate the temporal *** principal component analysis and multilevel models were applied to examine the county-level association between the gap and social *** Although LE and HALE in megacities are increasing steadily,their gap is *** and health services are guaranteed to narrow this *** personal wealth,a growing number of newborns and healthy immigrants,high urbanization,and healthy aging have helped in narrowing this *** In megacities,parallel LE and HALE growth should be highly considered to narrow their *** social determinants need to be integrated as a whole to formulate public health plans.

关键词： Generalized principal component analysis health-adjusted life expectancy Megacities Quality of life Social determinants Temporal trend Urban expansion

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Novel methylation gene panel in adjacent normal tissues predicts poor prognosis of colorectal cancer in Taiwan

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2020年第2期26卷 154-167页

作者： Chih-Hsiung Hsu Cheng-Wen Hsiao Chien-An Sun Wen-Chih Wu Tsan Yang Je-Ming Hu Chi-Hua Huang Yu-Chan Liao Chao-Yang Chen Fu-Huang Lin Yu-Ching Chou Graduate institute of Medical Sciences National Defense Medical CenterTaipei 114Taiwan Teaching Office Tri-Service General HospitalNational Defense Medical CenterTaipei 114Taiwan Division of Colorectal Surgery Department of SurgeryTri-Service General HospitalNational Defense Medical CenterTaipei 114Taiwan Department of public health College of MedicineFu-Jen Catholic UniversityNew Taipei City 242Taiwan Big Data Research Center College of MedicineFu-Jen Catholic UniversityNew Taipei City 242Taiwan School of public health National Defense Medical CenterTaipei 114Taiwan Department of Surgery Suao and Yuanshan Branches of Taipei Veterans General HospitalYilan County 264Taiwan Department of health Business Administration Meiho UniversityPingtung County 912Taiwan Adjunct Instructor School of MedicineNational Defense Medical CenterTaipei 114Taiwan

BACKGROUND It is evident that current clinical criteria are suboptimal to accurately estimate patient *** have identified epigenetic aberrant changes as novel prognostic factors for colorectal cancer(CRC).AIM To estimate whether a methylation gene panel in different clinical stages can reflect a different *** We enrolled 120 CRC patients from Tri-Service General Hospital in Taiwan and used the candidate gene approach to select six genes involved in carcinogenesis *** were divided into two groups based on the methylation status of the six evaluated genes,namely,the<3 aberrancy group and≥3 aberrancy *** tumor stages were divided into two subgroups(local and advanced stages)on the basis of the pathological type of the following tissues:Tumor and adjacent normal tissues(matched normal).We assessed DNA methylation in tumors and adjacent normal tissues from CRC patients and analyzed the association between DNA methylation with different cancer stages and the prognostic outcome including time to progression(TTP)and overall *** We observed a significantly increasing trend of hazard ratio as the number of hypermethylated genes increased both in normal tissue and tumor *** 5-year TTP survival curves showed a significant difference between the≥3 aberrancy group and the<3 aberrancy *** with the<3 aberrancy group,a significantly shorter TTP was observed in the≥3 aberrancy *** further analyzed the interaction between CRC prognosis and different cancer stages(local and advanced)according to the methylation status of the selected genes in both types of *** was a significantly shorter 5-year TTP for tumors at advanced stages with the promoter methylation status of selected genes than for those with local *** found an interaction between cancer stages and the promoter methylation status of selected genes in both types of *** Our data provide a significant association

关键词： DNA methylation Panel genes Clinical stage Prognosis outcome Adjacent normal tissues Colorectal cancer

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Challenges in and lessons learned during the implementation of the 1-3-7 malaria surveillance and response strategy in China: a qualitative study

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2016年第1期5卷 857-867页

作者： Guangyu Lu Yaobao Liu Claudia Beiersmann Yu Feng Jun Cao Olaf Müller Department of Preventive Medicine Medical College of Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou University225001 YangzhouChina institute of public health Medical SchoolThe Ruprecht-Karls-Universität HeidelbergINF 32469120 HeidelbergGermany Key Laboratory of National health and Family Planning Commission on Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory on Parasite and Vector Control TechnologyJiangsu Institute of Parasitic DiseasesWuxiChina Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention LanzhouChina public health Research Center Jiangnan UniversityWuxiChina

Background:China has made great progress in malaria control over the last century and now aims to eliminate malaria by *** 2012,the country launched its 1-3-7 surveillance and response strategy for malaria *** strategy involves to case reporting within 1 day,case investigation within 3 days,and focus investigation and public health actions within 7 *** aim of this study was to evaluate the challenges in and lessons learned during the implementation of the 1-3-7 strategy in China so ***:This qualitative study was conducted in two provinces in China:Gansu province(northwestern China)and Jiangsu province(southeastern China)in *** informant interviews(n=6)and in-depth interviews(n=36)about the implementation aspects of the 1-3-7 strategy were conducted with malaria experts,health staff,laboratory practitioners,and village doctors at the provincial,city,county,township,and village ***:Broad themes related to the challenges in and lessons learned during the implementation of the 1-3-7 strategy were identified according to:case reporting within 1 day,case investigation within 3 days,focus investigation within 7 days,and the overall *** major challenges outlined were related to respecting the timeline of surveillance procedures,the absence of or difficulties in following guidelines on conducting focus investigations,diagnostics,and the increasing number of returning migrant workers from malaria-endemic *** lessons learned revolve around the importance of continuous capacity building,supervision and motivation,quality control,information technology support,applied research,governmental commitment,and intersectoral ***:Surveillance is a key intervention in malaria elimination *** Chinese 1-3-7 strategy has already proven to be successful but still needs to be *** particular,dealing appropriately with imported malaria cases through the screening of migrant workers from

关键词： Malaria 1-3-7 surveillance and response strategy China Qualitative research

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HLA-B*6701 as a Subtype Performing Post-Selected Marking Gene for Cervical Cancer

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences 2010年第6期15卷 539-543页

作者： QIU Xiaoping TAO Ning TAN Yun WU Xinxing institute of Virology Medical School of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430071 Hubei China School of public health Wuhan University Wuhan 430071Hubei China

A method of sequence-based typing（SBT） has been adopted to assort types of exons 2 and 3,which have the most polymorphism,of HLA-B locus of the Tujia nation group in Hubei *** correlation among the HLA-B alleles,human papillomavirus（HPV） infection and cervical cancer risk has also been *** the condition of resident location and age,race unified,100 specimens of cancer patients were sampled as a case group,of which 86 were HPV positive and were screened for HLA-B alleles;while 187 specimens were taken from healthy people,of which 92 were HPV negative as a control *** result shows that by comparing the above mentioned 86 HPV positive cervical cancer group and 92 HPV negative normal group,it was concluded that HLA-B＊6701 was only found in the cervical cancer group（p〈0.034）,which shows that HLA-B＊6701 can be used as an important candidate biological marking gene for generation of cervical cancer in Wufeng county of Hubei province.

关键词： Tujia nation HLA alleles human papillomavirus

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Rainfall Influence on the Abundance of Bacteria in Dubrovnik Marine Waters

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Journal of health Science 2018年第5期6卷 355-357页

作者： Antonia Mercep Andrej Jozinovic Lucia Stipicevic Dolores Grilec Marijana Pecarevic Department of Aquaculture University of Dubrovnik Cira Carica 4 Dubrovnik Croatia institute of public health Dubrovnik-Neretva county Dr. Ante Sercera 4a Dubrovnik Croatia

Microbiological testing of the sea gives us great knowledge about its quality for swimming. Here we are following the fluctuations in the abundance of E. coli colonies, intestinal enterococci and total coliforms on three beaches in Dubrovnik during the rainfall in winter and spring. Three beaches Porporela, Banje and Excelsior are the most visited beaches during the summer season. Samples were taken before, during and after the rainfall on the surface, in the depth of 0.5 m and 1 m. Membrane filtration was used for sample treatment. Expected increase in the abundance of colonies is shown most on the Banje beach where the total coliforms increased 15.80 times while on the Excelsior beach E. coli colonies increased 12 times during the rainfall. On the Porporela beach there was a mild increase of intestinal enterococci colonies for 6.66 times. Regarding the data of the institute of public health Dubrovnik-Neretva county the beaches were mostly marked as “excellent” especially since 2003 when the sewers were regulated in the Dubrovnik Old Town. The number of all colonies after the rainfall reduced for 99.80% in all three locations.

关键词： Bacteria sea for swimming rainfall

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COMPARATIVE EFFICACY OF LEVO-PRAZIQUANTEL AND PRAZIQUANTEL IN TREATMENT OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS JAPONICA AT A SINGLE DOSE

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中华医学杂志(英文版) 1991年第9期104卷 732-735页

作者：吴鸣鹤魏承慈徐肇玥袁鸿昌连惟能杨求吉陈明王才中张肇基刘滋德危仁民袁斯姣胡林生吴至省 Department of Infectious Diseases Huashan Hospital Shanghai Medical University Shanghai 200040 Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health Department of Parasitology Shanghai Medical University Jiangxi Provincial Antischistosomiasis institute and Xingzi county Anti-Schistosomiasis Station Jiangxi Province

The result of a randomized double blind comparison of therapeutic efficacy of single doses of levo-praziquantel (L-PZQ) and praziquantel (PZQ) in the treatment of 139 matched pairs of proved cases of schistosomiasis japonica was reported, 268 were chronic early cases and 10 were late cases. The dosage of L-PZQ was 20 mg/kg, and that of PZQ was 40 mg/kg. Four and 6 months after treatment the stool-ova negative conversion rates were 94.8% and 96.3% for the L-PZQ group, and 97.1% and 94.0% for the PZQ group respectively (P>0.05).

关键词： RABBITS

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Incidence trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 1987 to 2011 in Sihui county,Guangdong Province,South China:an age-period-cohort analysis

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Chinese Journal of Cancer 2015年第8期34卷 350-357页

作者： Li-Fang Zhang Yan-Hua Li Shang-Hang Xie Wei Ling Sui-Hong Chen Qing Liu Qi-Hong Huang Su-Mei Cao Department of Cancer Prevention Research Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine School of public health Sun Yat-sen University Sihui Cancer institute

Introduction:In the past several decades,declining incidences of nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC) have been observed in Chinese populations in Hong Kong,Taiwan,Los Angeles,and Singapore.A previous study indicated that the incidence of NPC in Sihui county,South China remained stable until 2002,but whether age,diagnosis period,and birth cohort affect the incidence of NPC remains ***:Age-standardized rates(ASRs) of NPC incidence based on the world standard population were examined in both males and females in Sihui county from 1987 to *** regression analysis was conducted to quantify the changes in incidence trends.A Poisson regression age-period-cohort model was used to assess the effects of age,diagnosis period,and birth cohort on the risk of ***:The ASRs of NPC incidence during the study period were 30.29/100,000 for males and 13.09/100,000 for *** incidence of NPC remained stable at a non-significant average annual percent change of 0.2%for males and-1.6%for females throughout the entire period.A significantly increased estimated annual percent change of 6.8%(95%confidence interval,0.1%-14.0%) was observed from 2003 to 2009 for *** relative risk of NPC increased with advancing age up to 50-59 and decreased at ages >60 *** period effect curves on NPC were nearly flat for males and *** birth cohort effect curve for males showed an increase from the1922 cohort to the 1957 cohort and a decrease *** females,there was an undulating increase in the relative risk from the 1922 cohort to the 1972 ***:The incidence trends for NPC remained generally stable in Sihui from 1987 to 2011,with an increase from 2003 to *** relative risks of NPC increased in younger females.

关键词：队列分析中国人群发病率鼻咽癌广东省全国人民代表大会龄期回归分析

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Ecological study of cave nectar bats reveals low risk of direct transmission of bat viruses to humans

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Zoological Research 2022年第4期43卷 514-522页

作者： Kai Zhao Wei Zhang Bei Li Shi-Zhe Xie Fan Yi Ren-Di Jiang Yun Luo Xiang-Yang He Yun-Zhi Zhang Zheng-Li Shi Li-Biao Zhang Xing-Lou Yang CAS Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety Wuhan Institute of VirologyChinese Academy of SciencesWuhanHubei 430071China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and UtilizationInstitute of ZoologyGuangdong Academy of SciencesGuangzhouGuangdong 510260China School of public health Dali UniversityDaliYunnan 671003China

Bats are reservoirs of various *** widely distributed cave nectar bat(Eonycteris spelaea)is known to carry both filoviruses and ***,the potential transmission of theses bat viruses to humans is not fully *** this study,we tracked 16 *** bats in Mengla county,Yunnan Province,China,using miniaturized GPS devices to investigate their movements and potential contact with ***,to determine the prevalence of coronavirus and filovirus infections,we screened for the nucleic acids of the Měnglàvirus(MLAV)and two coronaviruses(GCCDC1-CoV and HKU9-CoV)in anal swab samples taken from bats and for antibodies against these viruses in human serum *** of the serum samples were found to contain antibodies against the bat *** GPS tracking results showed that the bats did not fly during the daytime and rarely flew to residential *** foraging range of individual bats also varied,with a mean cumulative nightly flight distance of 25.50 km and flight speed of up to 57.4 km/*** together,these results suggest that the risk of direct transmission of GCCDC1-CoV,HKU9-CoV,and MLAV from *** bats to humans is very low under natural conditions.

关键词： Bats Eonycteris spelaea GPS tracking GCCDC1-CoV HKU9-CoV Měnglàvirus

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Aerosol composition,sources,and secondary processing during autumn at a regional site in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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Particuology 2023年第4期75卷 177-184页

作者： Yichen Wang Qiyuan Wang Jie Tian Yong Zhang Yunfei Wu Weikang Ran Renjian Zhang Junji Cao School of public Policy and Administration Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi'an710129China Key Laboratory of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi'an710061China CAS Center for Excellence in Quaternary Science and Global Change Xi'an710061China institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Xianghe Observatoryof Whole Atmosphere Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesXianghe CountyHebei Province065400China

Air pollution is serious during autumn in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region,but there are few studies that have utilized real-time observations and source apportionment of the autumn submicron aerosols in this *** this study,a quadrupole aerosol chemical speciation monitor(Q-ACSM)was deployed for the real-time measurement of the non-refractory compositions of submicron aerosols(NR-PM1)at a regional site(Xianghe)from October 3 to November 14,*** results showed that nitrate was the largest inorganic aerosol,and the oxygenated organic aerosol(OOA)was the largest organic aerosol in ***-like OA(HOA)was the largest organic aerosol When the NR-PM1 mass concentrations increased from the lowest to the highest bins,nitrate and biomass burning OA(BBOA)showed increasing trends in the suburban *** nitrate formation during the pollution epi-sodes resulted from both photochemical and aqueous *** reduce the particulate matter(PM2.5)concentrations and eliminate heavy pollution episodes,control measures should focus on reducing NO_(x),NH_(3),and volatile organic compound(VOCs)emissions.

关键词： Autumn Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region Submicron aerosol Organic sources Control measures

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