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A Novel Rolling and Fractional-ordered Grey System Model and Its Application for Predicting Industrial Electricity Consumption

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2024年第2期33卷 207-231页

作者： Wenhao Zhou Hailin Li Zhiwei Zhang College of business Administration Huaqiao UniversityQuanzhou 362021China College of business Administration Capital University of Economics and BusinessBeijing 100070China

Accurate and reasonable prediction of industrial electricity consumption is of great significance for promoting regional green transformation and optimizing the energy ***,the regional power system is complicated and uncertain,affected by multiple factors including climate,population and *** paper incorporates structure expansion,parameter optimization and rolling mechanism into a system forecasting framework,and designs a novel rolling and fractional-ordered grey system model to forecast the industrial electricity consumption,improving the accuracy of the traditional grey *** optimal fractional order is obtained by using the particle swarm optimization algorithm,which enhances the model ***,the proposed model is employed to forecast and analyze the changing trend of industrial electricity consumption in Fujian *** results show that industrial electricity consumption in Fujian will maintain an upward growth and it is expected to 186.312 billion kWh in *** with other seven benchmark prediction models,the proposed grey system model performs best in terms of both simulation and prediction performance metrics,providing scientific reference for regional energy planning and electricity market operation.

关键词： Electricity consumption grey system theory prediction model fractional order

Crowding-in or Crowding-out:How Infrastructure Investment Affects Household Consumption

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China Finance and Economic Review 2024年第1期13卷 43-66页

作者： Zhiyu Yan Yufei Yuan Yi Xue School of International business and economics University of International Business and Economics

This paper constructs a dynamic model of household consumption decisions and accordingly designs empirical analyses to identify how infrastructure investment affects private *** estimation results of provincial panel data reveal that infrastructure investment can not only indirectly promote household consumption through the income channel but also directly promote household consumption expansion through the expectations channel,with a significant"crowding-in"***,the effect is significantly weaker in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity,showing the"crowding-out"pattern through the wealth *** survey data provide an explanation for individual *** investment has a greater pushing effect on house prices in provinces with a lower housing supply *** house price growth has significant"crowding-out"effects on the consumption of wealthy *** not only significantly weakens the driving effect of infrastructure investment on aggregate household consumption,but also increases wealth inequality in the long *** paper explains how infrastructure investment affects household consumption and the corresponding role played by house prices,providing empirical evidences for theoretical studies related to macro-regulatory policies in China.

关键词： infrastructure investment household consumption housing supply elasticity macro regulatory policies

How can technology and efficiency alleviate the dilemma of economic growth and carbon emissions in China's industrial economy? A metafrontier decoupling decomposition analysis

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Petroleum Science 2024年第2期21卷 1415-1428页

作者： Miao Wang Chao Feng School of business Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou450001HenanChina School of economics and business Administration Chongqing UniversityChongqing400030China

This paper attempts to explore the decoupling relationship and its drivers between industrial economic increase and energy-related CO_(2) emissions(ICE). Firstly, the decoupling relationship was evaluated by Tapio index. Then, based on the DEA meta-frontier theory framework which taking into account the regional and industrial heterogeneity and index decomposition method, the driving factors of decoupling process were explored mainly from the view of technology and efficiency. The results show that during2000-2019, weak decoupling was the primary state. Investment scale expansion was the largest reason hindering decoupling process of industrial increase from ICE. Both energy saving and production technology achieved significant progress, which facilitated the decoupling process. Simultaneously, the energy technology gap and production technology gap among regions have been narrowed, and played a role in promoting decoupling process. On the contrary, both scale economy efficiency and pure technical efficiency have inhibiting effects on decoupling process. The former indicates that the scale economy of China's industry was not conducive to improve energy efficiency and production efficiency, while the latter indicates that resource misallocation problem may exist in both energy market and product market.

关键词： China's industrial sector Decoupling process Meta-frontier DEA Index decomposition method Driving factors

Peer Effects of Internet business Models:Strategic Drive or Conceptual Catering?

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Frontiers of business Research in China 2024年第2期18卷 121-152页

作者： ZHANG Xinmin GUO Tongtong YANG Daoguang LIU Siyi business School University of International Business and EconomicsBeijing 100029China

In recent years,the internet business model has become a popular concept,and has been adopted by an increasing number of traditional ***,the question remains whether this adoption is a strategy-driven decision or a blind follow of ***,this study is conducted on Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2020 to examine the existence,underlying motives,and economic consequences of peer effects in traditional enterprises adopting internet business *** results show significant peer effects among traditional enterprises adopting internet business *** examination of driving mechanisms reveals that peer effects of internet business models are more significant in enterprises with asset-light structures,higher degrees of virtualization,lower market valuations,and greater financing pressure,supporting the conceptual catering hypothesis rather than the strategic drive *** tests reveal that while adopting internet business models enables enterprises to receive some government subsidy and market reaction in the short term,it only promotes tactical innovation rather than real innovation and does not improve the financial performance of these *** further indicates that peer effects of internet business models are not a strategic drive but rather a matter of conceptual catering.

关键词： internet business model peer effect traditional enterprises strategic drive conceptualcatering

Segmented trust assessment in autonomous vehicles via eye-tracking

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Journal of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles

Journal of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles 2024年第2期7卷 151-161页

作者： Miklós Lukovics Szabolcs Prónay Barbara Nagy Faculty of economics and business Administration University of SzegedSzeged H-6726Hungary

Previous studies have identified trust as one of the key factors in the technology acceptance of autonomousvehicles. As these studies mostly investigated the population in general, little is known about segment-specific ***, the widely used survey methods are less able to capture the deeper forms of trust—which neuroscientificmethods are much better suited to capture. The main objective of our research is to study trust as one of the key factors oftechnology acceptance related to autonomous vehicles by using neuroscientific methods for specific consumer ***-time eye-tracking tests were applied to a sample of 113 participants, combined with a posttest self-report. The testswere carried out under laboratory conditions during which our subjects watched videos recorded with the internal camerasof autonomous vehicles. Based on the fixation count, total fixation duration, and pupil dilation, we empirically verified thatthe trust level of all five identified segments is relatively low, while the trust level of the “traditional rejecting” segment is thelowest. An increase in trust level can be shown if the subjects receive extra information about the journey. Anotherimportant finding is that the self-reported trust level is not always congruent with the eye-tracking analysis results;therefore,combined approaches can lead to greater measurement validity.

关键词： autonomous vehicles(AVs) technology acceptance trust eye-tracking

Whether to Abolish or Introduce Dual Regulation as Trade and Environmental Policy?

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China & World Economy 2024年第1期32卷 57-95页

作者： Yoshihiro Hamaguchi Department of economics Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationKyoto University of Advanced ScienceJapan

China,which has already introduced an environmental tax in an effort to decarbonize,has recently begun emissions trading and is using two environmental policies in tandem,but there are concerns about the impact on growth and *** and environmental policies affect firms'entry and exit,resulting in changes in aggregate productivity and pollution *** study compares the impacts of single regulation and dual regulation on welfare,using a research-and-development based growth model with heterogeneous *** single regulation,the cleansing effect of trade liberalization could be *** dual regulation,trade liberalization decreases pollution and improves average productivity whereas decreasing total permits reduces *** the perspective of improving welfare it is desirable to choose dual regulation because trade liberalization can reduce total pollution emissions via the cleansing effect of trade liberalization.

关键词： dual regulation heterogeneous firm Porter hypothesis research and development difficulty trade liberalization

GMAT:A Graph Modeling Method for Group Preference Prediction

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2024年第4期33卷 475-493页

作者： Xiangyu Li Xunhua Guo Guoqing Chen International business School Jinan UniversityZhuhai519070China School of economics and Management Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China

Preference prediction is the building block of personalized services,and its implementation at the group level helps enterprises identify their target customers *** methods for preference prediction mainly focus on behavioral interactions to extract the associations between groups and products,ignoring the importance of other auxiliary records(e.g.,online reviews and social tags)in association *** paper proposes a novel method named GMAT for group preference prediction,aiming to collectively detect the sophisticated association patterns from user generated content(UGC)and behavioral *** doing so,we construct a tripartite graph to collaborate these two types of data,and design a deep-learning algorithm with mutual attention module for generating the contextualized representations of groups and *** experiments on two real-world datasets show that GMAT is superior to other baselines in terms of group preference ***,GMAT is able to improve prediction accuracy compared with its different variants,further verifying the proposed method’s effectiveness on association pattern detection.

关键词： Group preference UGC tripartite graph deep learning

Stimulating Start-up Investment Through Government-Sponsored Venture Capital: Theory and Chinese Evidence

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2024年第5期37卷 2021-2053页

作者： NI Xuanming ZHENG Tiantian GAO Feng ZHAO Huimin School of Software and Microelectronics Peking University School of economics and Management Tsinghua University School of business Sun Yat-sen University

Government-sponsored venture capital(GVC) has been used to support financially constrained start-ups as an important policy tool in China. Typically, to motivate the social capital to invest in start-ups, GVC provides subsidies for them to bridge the funding gap in the early-stage venture capital market. However, the effect and mechanism of GVC affecting social capital investment have not been clearly studied. In this paper, the authors not only develop a game model to analyze this issue in theory, but conduct an empirical study by analyzing the 14741 records matched by propensity score matching(PSM) of Chinese venture capital market data from 2011 to 2021. The proposed findings are as the follows. Firstly, the subsidies offered by GVC will simultaneously increase the returns and risks of investments in start-ups of social capital with more volatile incentive effect of GVC. The incentive effect of GVC is only effective when the returns resulting from the subsidies outweigh the risks they introduce. In the context of the Chinese venture capital market, the incentive effect of GVC is effective. Secondly, the incentive effect of GVC is more pronounced in high-tech industries, which can be attributed to the signaling effect facilitated by GVC. In this context, the subsidy mainly helps social capital to bear the costs associated with screening potential investments. Thirdly, the incentive effect of GVC is more significant in underdeveloped venture capital markets, which can be explained by the “virtuous cycle” effect, in which GVC plays a pioneering role in establishing a more robust early-stage market trading system. By examining these three points, this study contributes to a better understanding of how GVC can effectively guide social capital investment, especially in the Chinese landscape.

关键词： Government-sponsored venture capital fund incentive effect social capital subsidy venture capital

Cross-border E-commerce and China's Exports during the COVID-19 Pandemic

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China & World Economy 2024年第3期32卷 215-242页

作者： Yi Che Meng Yuan Yan Zhang Lin Zhao School of business East China University of Science and TechnologyChina School of business Xiangtan UniversityChina School of economics Shanghai University of Finance and EconomicsChina

China's exports experienced a rapid recovery after the outbreak of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic.A primary engine was cross-border e-commerce(CBEC)trade,which bucked the downward export trend during the *** exploring the variation in the number of CBEC comprehensive pilot zones across provinces,we identified the causal impact of CBEC on exports using monthly province-product-destination data for 2019 and *** found strong and robust evidence that CBEC contributed to exports during the pandemic by promoting the expansion of incumbent exports(intensive margin)rather than through the expansion of product categories and exporting partners(extensive margin).Specifically,higher pandemic risk suppressed the role of CBEC at the intensive margin while enhancing it at the extensive *** to developed countries benefited more from CBEC,both intensively and *** with final products,a larger number of intermediate products were exported through CBEC after the outbreak of the pandemic.

关键词： China's exports COVID-19 pandemic cross-border e-commerce extensive margin of trade intensive margin of trade