A Novel Rolling and Fractional-ordered Grey System Model and Its Application for Predicting Industrial Electricity Consumption
作者机构：College of Business AdministrationHuaqiao UniversityQuanzhou 362021China College of Business AdministrationCapital University of Economics and BusinessBeijing 100070China
出 版 物：《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 (系统科学与系统工程学报（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2024年第33卷第2期
页 面：207-231页
核心收录：
学科分类：0711[理学-系统科学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 07[理学] 071101[理学-系统理论]
基 金：supported in part by the National Social Science Fund of China under Grant No.22FGLB035 Fujian Provincial Federation of Social Sciences under Grant No.FJ2023B109
主 题：Electricity consumption grey system theory prediction model fractional order
摘 要：Accurate and reasonable prediction of industrial electricity consumption is of great significance for promoting regional green transformation and optimizing the energy ***,the regional power system is complicated and uncertain,affected by multiple factors including climate,population and *** paper incorporates structure expansion,parameter optimization and rolling mechanism into a system forecasting framework,and designs a novel rolling and fractional-ordered grey system model to forecast the industrial electricity consumption,improving the accuracy of the traditional grey *** optimal fractional order is obtained by using the particle swarm optimization algorithm,which enhances the model ***,the proposed model is employed to forecast and analyze the changing trend of industrial electricity consumption in Fujian *** results show that industrial electricity consumption in Fujian will maintain an upward growth and it is expected to 186.312 billion kWh in *** with other seven benchmark prediction models,the proposed grey system model performs best in terms of both simulation and prediction performance metrics,providing scientific reference for regional energy planning and electricity market operation.
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