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Effect of awareness,Quarantine and vaccination as control strategies on COVID-19 with Co-morbidity and Re-infection

Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第4期7卷 660-689页

作者： Amit Kumar Saha Shikha Saha Chandra Nath Podder Department of Mathematics University of DhakaDhaka1000Bangladesh Department of Mathematics Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology(BUET)Dhaka1000Bangladesh

In this paper,a deterministic compartmental model is presented to assess the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions(social distance,awareness,face mask,and Quarantine)on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with co-morbidity and reinfection.An expression for the basic reproduction number is then derived for this model.Theoretical analysis shows that the model exhibits backward bifurcation phenomenon when the basic reproduction number is less than unity.But for the case of no reinfection,the model has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium(DFE)when the basic reproduction number is less than unity.Furthermore,it is shown that in the case of no re-infection,a unique endemic equilibrium point(EEP)of the model exists which is globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number is greater than unity.From the global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis,we have identified mask coverage,mask efficacy,vaccine coverage,vaccine efficacy,and contact rate as the most influential parameters influencing the spread of COVID-19.Numerical simulation results show that the use of effective vaccines with proper implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions could lead to the elimination of COVID-19 from the community.Numerical simulations also suggest that the control strategy that ensures a continuous and effective mass vaccination program is the most cost-effective control strategy.The study also shows that in the presence of any co-morbidity and with the occurrence of re-infection,the disease burden may increase.

关键词： COVID-19 Co-morbidity Face-mask Quarantine Vaccination Optimal control Re-infection

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A Novel Analysis Approach of Uniform Persistence for an Epidemic Model with Quarantine and Standard Incidence Rate

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Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica 2024年第3期40卷 695-707页

作者： Song-bai GUO Yu-ling XUE Xi-liang LI Zuo-huan ZHENG School of Science Beijing University of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureBeijing 102616China School of Mathematics and Statistics Hainan Normal UniversityHaikou 571158China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China School of Mathematics and Information Science Shandong Technology and Business UniversityYantai 264005China School of Mathematical Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Inspired by the transmission characteristics of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),an epidemic model with Quarantine and standard incidence rate is first developed,then a novel analysis approach is proposed for finding the ultimate lower bound of the number of infected individuals,which means that the epidemic is uniformly persistent if the control reproduction number R_(c)>1.This approach can be applied to the related biomat hem at ical models,and some existing works can be improved by using that.In addition,the infection-free equilibrium V^(0)of the model is locally asymptotically stable(LAS)if R_(c)1.

关键词： uniform persistence epidemic model control reproduction number Quarantine standard incidence rate

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Estimating the Quarantine failure rate for COVID-19

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 924-929页

作者： Meili Li Qianqian Yuan Pian Chen Baojun Song Junling Ma College of Science Donghua UniversityShanghai201620China Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Montclair State UniversityMontclairNJ07043USA Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of VictoriaVictoriaBCV8W 2Y2Canada

Quarantine is a crucial control measure in reducing imported COVID-19 cases and community transmissions.However,some Quarantined COVID-19 patients may show symptoms after finishing Quarantine due to a long median incubation period,potentially causing community transmissions.To assess the recommended 14-day Quarantine policy,we develop a formula to estimate the Quarantine failure rate from the incubation period distribution and the epidemic curve.We found that the Quarantine failure rate increases with the exponential growth rate of the epidemic curve.We apply our formula to United States,Canada,and Hubei Province,China.Before the lockdown of Wuhan City,the Quarantine failure rate in Hubei Province is about 4.1%.If the epidemic curve flattens or slowly decreases,the failure rate is less than 2.8%.The failure rate in US may be as high as 8.3%-11.5%due to a shorter 10-day Quarantine period,while the failure rate in Canada may be between 2.5%and 3.9%.A 21-day Quarantine period may reduce the failure rate to 0.3%-0.5%.

关键词： Quarantine Incubation period Exponential growth rate Epidemic curve

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Quarantine,distress and interpersonal relationships during COVID-19

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General Psychiatry 2020年第6期33卷 437-441页

作者： Robin Goodwin Wai Kai HOU Shaojing Sun Menachem Ben-Ezra Department of Psychology University of WarwickCoventryUK Department of Psychology The Education University of Hong KongHong KongHong Kong Department of Journalism Fudan UniversityShanghaiShanghaiChina Department of Social Work Ariel UniversityArielIsrael

Novel zoonosis COVID-19 first emerged in Wuhan,China,but rapidly spread to the other regions in China.The spread of this severe acute respiratory syndrome led to the Quarantine of 60 million Chinese citizens.Such isolation measures have been associated with increased depression,stress and emotional disturbance.1-3 However,major traumatic events can amplify both positive and negative aspects of interpersonal relations,leading to competing narratives of both harm and enhancem ent.4 Quarantine can create family dependencies,threaten livelihoods and lead to the stigmatisation of those infected/b School closures and disruption of family care seriously disrupt regular domestic practices.

关键词： closure measures Quarantine

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Modeling the impact of Quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2019年第1期4卷 12-27页

作者： Attila Dénes Abba B.Gumel Bolyai Institute University of SzegedAradi vertanúk tere 1.Szeged H-6720Hungary School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Arizona State UniversityTempeAZ 85287-1804USA Other affliation:Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of PretoriaPretoria 0002South Africa

The Quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to an infectious agent is one of the most basic public health measure that has historically been used to combat the spread of communicable diseases in human communities.This study presents a new deterministic model for assessing the population-level impact of the Quarantine of individuals suspected of being exposed to disease on the spread of the 2014e2015 outbreaks of Ebola viral disease.It is assumed that Quarantine is imperfect(i.e.,individuals can acquire infection during Quarantine).In the absence of Quarantine,the model is shown to exhibit global dynamics with respect to the disease-free and its unique endemic equilibrium when a certain epidemiological threshold(denoted byR 0)is either less than or greater than unity.Thus,unlike the full model with imperfect Quarantine(which is known to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation),the version of the model with no Quarantine does not undergo a backward bifurcation.Using data relevant to the 2014e2015 Ebola transmission dynamics in the three West African countries(Guinea,Liberia and Sierra Leone),uncertainty analysis of the model show that,although the current level and effectiveness of Quarantine can lead to significant reduction in disease burden,they fail to bring the associated Quarantine reproduction number(R Q0)to a value less than unity(which is needed to make effective disease control or elimination feasible).This reduction of R Q0 is,however,very possible with a modest increase in Quarantine rate and effectiveness.It is further shown,via sensitivity analysis,that the parameters related to the effectiveness of Quarantine(namely the parameter associated with the reduction in infectiousness of infected Quarantined individuals and the contact rate during Quarantine)are the main drivers of the disease transmission dynamics.Overall,this study shows that the singular implementation of a Quarantine intervention strategy can lead to the effective control or elimination of Ebola viral disease in a communit

关键词： Ebola virus disease Quarantine Global dynamics

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Minimizing the risk of community spread of COVID-19 via institutional Quarantine of high-risk travelers with serial viral RNA testing: A successful experience from Macao SAR, China

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2020年第13期8卷 2674-2678页

作者： Chon Fu Lio Hou Hon Cheong Chin Ion Lei Iek Long Lo Chong Lam Iek Hou Leong Macao Academy of Medicine Health BureauMacao SARChina Department of Internal Medicine Centro Hospitalar Conde de São JanuárioHealth BureauMacao SARChina Department of Respiratory Medicine Centro Hospitalar Conde de São JanuárioHealth BureauMacao SARChina Center for Disease Control and Prevention Health BureauMacao SARChina

Macao,a special administrative region(SAR)of the People’s Republic of China,is located in southern China and shares the border with China's Mainland.It is the most densely populated region in the world,with a population of 667400 and a total land area of 32.9 square kilometers in 2019.Since the first case diagnosed on January 22,2020,there was a total of 45 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases in Macao,of which 43 patients(96%)were imported cases.To date,all patients had been discharged successfully from Centro Hospitalar Conde de São Januário,a designated hospital to manage all COVID-19 patients in Macao.Eventually,no patient died,and no local community outbreak was noted.This opinion review describes the underlying factors that could have contributed to the successful experience in Macao SAR,China,which include the following:(1)Early implementation of containment measures;(2)Large-scale Quarantine using hotel rooms to reduce the risk of a local outbreak;and(3)Multidisciplinary co-operation and transparency of information to the public.Although the successful experience in Macao SAR,China,may not be generalized to other regions,it should not be unreasonable to be well prepared with sufficient logistic support to conduct timely containment and early detection of episodic cases to prevent the backsliding of COVID-19 outbreak.

关键词： COVID-19 Macao RNA test Containment Quarantine Outbreak

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A Brief Talk on How to Promote China Health and Quarantine at Points of Entry in the Framework of Global Health

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口岸卫生控制 2018年第4期23卷 1-7,14页

作者：王晓中黄琳于畅臧宇婷 Dalian Customs(Pro-Liaoning Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau) Dalian Friendship Hospital Liaoning International Travel Health Care Center

Global health concerns about the health of the global population and the concepts of global health are gradually being accepted by all of the countries in the world.China health and Quarantine at points of entry(POEs) is an integral part of global health,and its duty of prevention and control of the communicable diseases in POEs is consistent with the duty of global health to promote the health of global population.Under the principle of "prevention first",health and Quarantine organ carries out the work of disease prevention and control and international travel health care,the reinforcement of core capacity at POEs,and focuses on human rights protection.All the same,there are some gaps with the requirements of global health,such as the inadequate of health promotion planning capacity,ethics awareness and legal protection.The future work of health and Quarantine should change ideas on communicable diseases prevention at POEs,focus more on ethical consideration,and should optimize system architecture and human resources,strengthen cooperation,maintain core capacity at POEs,thus to build points of entry public health system with Chinese characteristics,meanwhile to apply the concepts of global health deeply into every aspects of health and Quarantine at POEs.

关键词： global health health and Quarantine POEs communicable disease core capacity

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Returning to Work during the Coronavirus Disease 2019（COVID-19） Epidemic:Immediate Mental Health and Sleep Status of Chinese Workforce after Strict Quarantine Measures in Chongqing,China

Returning to Work during the Coronavirus Disease 2019（COVID...

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中国睡眠研究会第七届西部睡眠医学大会

作者：郝凤仪 Xiaojiang Jiang Wanqiu Tan 重庆两江新区第一人民医院 Department of Neurology Daping HospitalArmy Medical University The China-Singapore (Chongqing) Demonstration Initiative on Strategic Connectivity Think Tank Institute for Health Innovation and Technology(iHealthtech) National University of Singapore

Background:The uncertainty of coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19） might lead to fear and perception of occupational risk when returned to work.There has been no research focusing on the mental health of workforce who returned to work during the COVID-19 epidemic.Workers might suffer from posttraumatic stress symptomatology,depression,anxiety,stress and insomnia.Factors affecting mental health of employees who returned to work during the COVID-19 epidemic have not been fully elucidated.The objective of this study was to quantify the immediate psychological effects of a workforce who returned to work during the COVID-19 epidemic after strict Quarantine and lockdown.Methods:At the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic,members of the workforce who received the approval to return to work in Chongqing,China was invited to participate in this study.Respondents completed a questionnaire regarding their attitude toward the COVID-19 epidemic and return-to-work along with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised,Depression,Anxiety,Stress Scale-21（DASS-21） and Insomnia Severity Index（ISI）,Results:From 673 valid questionnaires,we found that 10.8% of respondents met the diagnosis of post-traumatic stress disorder（PTSD） after returning to work.The respondents reported a low prevalence of anxiety（3.8%）,depression（3.7%）,stress（1.5%） and insomnia（2.3%） when returning to work during the COVID-19 epidemic.There were no significant differences in the severity of psychiatric symptoms between workers/technicians and executives/managers.More than 95% reported good ventilation in the workplace and wore a face mask as protective measures.Factors that were associated with the severity of psychiatric symptoms in the workforce were the following:marital status such as divorced,separated or widowed,presence of physical symptom and poor physical health,not yet or recently returning to work within a week and viewing return to work as a health hazard.In contrast,personal protection measures including hand hygiene and wearing face masks as well as occupational h

关键词： anxiety COVID-19 coronavirus depression epidemic insomnia occupational health mental health Quarantine PTSD stress suicide workers workforce

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The impact of mental health and sleep status on people with and without psychiatric illnesses in Chongqing,China during the peak of2019 coronavirus（COVID-19） outbreak with strict Quarantine measures

The impact of mental health and sleep status on people with ...

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中国睡眠研究会第七届西部睡眠医学大会

Objectives This study aimed to assess and compare the immediate stress and psychological impact experienced by people with and without psychiatric illnesses during the peak of 2019 coronavirus（COVID-19）outbreak with strict Quarantine measures in Chongqing,China.Methods At the peak of COVID-19 outbreak（February 2020）,76 psychiatric patients and 109 people healthy control subjects completed an online survey that collected information on demographic data,physical symptoms in the past 14 days and a range of psychiatric symptoms,the Impact of Event ScaleRevised（IES-R）.Depression,Anxiety and Stress Scale（DASS-21） and Insomnia Severity Index（ISI）.Groups were matched for age and gender.Results The mean IES-R,DASS-21 anxiety,depression and stress subscale and ISI scores were significantly higher in psychiatric patients than in healthy control subjects.Serious worries about own physical health,anger and impulsivity and strong suicidal ideation were significantly higher in psychiatric patients than in healthy control subjects（p＜0.05）.More than one-third of psychiatric patients might suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder（PTSD） and more than one-quarter of psychiatric patients suffer from moderately severe to severe insomnia.Respondents who reported no change,poor or worse physical health status and had psychiatric illness were significantly associated with higher mean IES-R,DASS depression,anxiety and stress subscale scores and ISI scores（p＜0.05）.Conclusion This pioneer study confirmed increased severity of negative psychological impact on psychiatric patients during the peak of COVID-19 outbreak with strict Quarantine measures.Understanding the psychological impact on psychiatric patients during the peak of COVID-19 outbreak has the potential to give further insight into how to improve preparedness and contingency plan for continuing psychiatric care.Prompt and continuous psychiatric intervention is needed for psychiatric patients during infectious disease outbreaks.

关键词： anxiety COVID-19 coronavirus depression epidemic insomnia psychiatric illness Quarantine PTSD stress suicide

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Strategic Thinking and Measures for Plant Quarantine and Food Safety

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Asian Agricultural Research 2013年第8期5卷 83-85页

作者： Guibin WANG Jinghan YANG Yongmei LI Daiju CUN Rui MA Guiping FAN Plant Protection and Quarantine Station of Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture Kunming No.10 Middle School Plant Protection and Quarantine Station of Yunnan Province Plant Protection and Quarantine Station of Tengchong County Plant Protection and Quarantine Station of Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture Plant Protection and Quarantine Station of Eshan County

This paper describes the importance of plant Quarantine to the food safety in China through cases where plant Quarantine helps to effectively intercept harmful organisms for food safety and promote export and import t... 详细信息

关键词： Plant Quarantine Food safety Thinking Measures

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