Estimating the quarantine failure rate for COVID-19

作     者：Meili Li Qianqian Yuan Pian Chen Baojun Song Junling Ma 

作者机构：College of ScienceDonghua UniversityShanghai201620China Department of Applied Mathematics and StatisticsMontclair State UniversityMontclairNJ07043USA Department of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of VictoriaVictoriaBCV8W 2Y2Canada 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期

页      面：924-929页

学科分类：1204[管理学-公共管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11771075)(ML) Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai,China(No.21ZR1401000)(ML) State Scholarship Fund of China(CSC No.201906635011)(ML) a Fundamental Research Grant for Chinese Universities(ML) Canadian Institutes of Health Research's Canadian 2019 COVID-19 Rapid Research Fund(JM) Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research's COVID-19 Research Response Fund(JM) a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Canada Discovery Grant(JM). 

主　　题：Quarantine Incubation period Exponential growth rate Epidemic curve 

摘      要：Quarantine is a crucial control measure in reducing imported COVID-19 cases and community transmissions.However,some quarantined COVID-19 patients may show symptoms after finishing quarantine due to a long median incubation period,potentially causing community transmissions.To assess the recommended 14-day quarantine policy,we develop a formula to estimate the quarantine failure rate from the incubation period distribution and the epidemic curve.We found that the quarantine failure rate increases with the exponential growth rate of the epidemic curve.We apply our formula to United States,Canada,and Hubei Province,China.Before the lockdown of Wuhan City,the quarantine failure rate in Hubei Province is about 4.1%.If the epidemic curve flattens or slowly decreases,the failure rate is less than 2.8%.The failure rate in US may be as high as 8.3%-11.5%due to a shorter 10-day quarantine period,while the failure rate in Canada may be between 2.5%and 3.9%.A 21-day quarantine period may reduce the failure rate to 0.3%-0.5%.