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V_p/V_s Anisotropy and Implications for Crustal Composition Identification and Earthquake prediction

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2009年第4期83卷 801-815页

作者： WANG Qian JI Shaocheng XU Zhiqin Departement des Genies Civil Geologique et des Mines Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal Montreal H3C 3A7 Canada Key Laboratory of Continental Dynamics Ministry of Land and Resources Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences 10037 Beijing China

The ratio of P- to S-wave velocities （Vp/Vs） is regarded as one of the most diagnostic properties of natural rocks. It has been used as a discriminant of composition for the continental crust and provides valuable constraints on its formation and evolution processes. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal changes in Vp/Vs before and after earthquakes are probably the most promising avenue to understanding the source mechanics and possibly predicting earthquakes. Here we calibrate the variations in Vp/Vs in dry, anisotropic crustal rocks and provide a set of basic information for the interpretation of future seismic data from the Wenchuan earthquake Fault zone Scientific Drilling （WFSD） project and other surveys. Vp/Vs is a constant （Ф0） for an isotropic rock. However, most of crustal rocks are anisotropic due to lattice-preferred orientations of anisotropic minerals （e.g., mica, amphibole, plagioclase and pyroxene） and cracks as well as thin compositional layering. The Vp/Vs ratio of an anisotropic rock measured along a selected pair of propagation-vibration directions is an apparent value （Фy） that is significantly different from the value for its isotropic counterpart （Ф0）. The usefulness of apparent Vp/Vs ratios as a diagnostic of crustal composition depends largely on rock seismic anisotropy. A 5% of P- and S-wave velocity anisotropy is sufficient to make it impossible to determine the crustal composition using the conventional criteria （Vp/Vs≤1.756 for felsic rocks, 1.756〈Vp/Vs≤1.809 for intermediate rocks, 1.809〈Vp/Vs≤1.944 for mafic rocks, and Vp/V2〉1.944 fluidfilled porous/fractured or partially molten rocks） if the information about the wave propagation-polarization directions with respect to the tectonic framework is unknown. However, the variations in Vp/Vs measured from borehole seismic experiments can be readily interpreted according to the orientations of the ray path and the polarization of the shear waves with respect to the present-day principal stress directions （i.e., the orientation of cracks）

关键词： Vp/Vs ratio Seismic anisotropy Crustal composition Earthquake prediction

Cross-fault Newton force measurement for Earthquake prediction

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Rock Mechanics Bulletin 2022年第1期1卷 33-52页

作者： Manchao He Shulin Ren Zhigang Tao State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics&Deep Underground Engineering China University of Mining&Technology(Beijing)Beijing100083China School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering China University of Mining&Technology(Beijing)Beijing100083China

Earthquake prediction is a common scientific challenge for academics worldwide.This dilemma originates from the lack of precursory indicators that meet the sufficient and necessary conditions of earthquake occurrence,which may be the root cause of the failure of Earthquake prediction.In light of this,a double-block catastrophic mechanics theory for earthquakes based on cross-fault Newton force measurement is proposed herein.Based on this theory and laboratory physical model tests of seismic Newton force monitoring,a new academic thought is envisioned“the sufficient and necessary condition for earthquake occurrence is the change of Newton force,and the sudden drop of Newton force on the fault surface can be used as a predictor of earthquake disaster.”Several equipment systems have been independently developed,and the technology has been successfully applied to engineering practice.This concept has currently been proven in small-scale double-block catastrophic events such as landslides.Based on the double-block catastrophic mechanics theory,landslides and earthquakes have the similar nature but different scales.According to the on-site monitoring of landslides,it is verified that the sudden drop of Newton force can be used as a predictor of landslide disaster which successfully solves the problem of short-term landslide prediction.The introduction of cross-fault Newton force measurement technology and idea has laid a foundation for improving the method and level of international earthquake monitoring and solving the world-class scientific problem of short-term Earthquake prediction.

关键词： Earthquake prediction Cross-fault Change of Newton force Double-block catastrophic mechanics theory Seismogenic fault

Studies and experiments on Earthquake prediction during 1999～2002

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 2003年第5期16卷 508-521页

作者：张晓东傅征祥张永仙牛安福黄辅琼彭克银卢军 Center for Analysis and prediction China Seismological Bureau

This paper briefly reviewed the research progresses of Earthquake prediction and/or forecasting in China during 1999~2002, especially focused on mid-short term prediction methods with approaches of seismicity, crustal deformation, electromagnetism, ground water and the analysis by synthesis, and the application of the methods to the practice of Earthquake prediction.

关键词： Earthquake prediction seismicity crustal deformation electromagnetism underground water analysis by synthesis progress

The Formation of Oscillation Patterns Based on the Planetary Gravitational Field and Their Suitability for Earthquake prediction

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Journal of High Energy Physics, Gravitation and Cosmology 2024年第1期10卷 149-157页

作者： Michael E. Nitsche Z & S Institut Grosselfingen Germany

The fluctuating planetary gravitational field influences not only activities on the Sun but also on the Earth. A special correlation function describes the harmonics of these fluctuations. Groups of earthquakes form oscillation patterns that differ significantly from randomly chosen control groups. These patterns are suitable as an element of an AI for the probability of earthquakes.

关键词： Planetary Gravitational Field Earthquake prediction AI

The　method　of　AF　synthetic　detection　on　crust　deformation　anomaly　and　its　applica-tion　in　earthquake

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1998年第4期11卷 467-472页

作者： Niu, An-Fu Li, Xu-Dong Wu, Jing Ke, Li-Jun Institute of Seismology China Seismological Bureau Wuhan China

ＴｈｅｍｅｔｈｏｄｏｆＡＦｓｙｎｔｈｅｔｉｃｄｅｔｅｃｔｉｏｎｏｎｃｒｕｓｔｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎａｎｏｍａｌｙａｎｄｉｔｓａｐｐｌｉｃａ－ｔｉｏｎｉｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎＡＮ－ＦＵＮＩＵ（牛安福... 详细信息

ＴｈｅｍｅｔｈｏｄｏｆＡＦｓｙｎｔｈｅｔｉｃｄｅｔｅｃｔｉｏｎｏｎｃｒｕｓｔｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎａｎｏｍａｌｙａｎｄｉｔｓａｐｐｌｉｃａ－ｔｉｏｎｉｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎＡＮ－ＦＵＮＩＵ（牛安福）ＸＵ－ＤＯＮＧＬＩ（李旭东）ＪＩ...

关键词： unstable model AF anomaly detection Earthquake prediction

An scientific evaluation of annual Earthquake prediction ability

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 2002年第5期15卷 550-558页

作者：张国民刘杰石耀霖 Center for Analysis and prediction China Seismological Bureau Beijing 100036 China Graduate School Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China

The scientific idea of Earthquake prediction in China is introduced in this paper. The various problems on evaluation of Earthquake prediction ability are analyzed. The practical effect of prediction on annual seismic risk areas in 1990~2000 in China is discussed based on R-value evaluation method, and the ability of present Earthquake prediction in China is reviewed.

关键词： Earthquake prediction annual consulation prediction evaluation

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of M_S=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to Earthquake prediction

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 2003年第2期16卷 219-225页

作者：刘蒲雄郑大林车时潘怀文刘桂萍杨立明 CenterforAnalysisandprediction ChinaSeismologicalBureau ChinaSeismologicalBureau LanzhouInstituteofSeismology ChinaSeismologicalBureau

A great earthquake of MS=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is lo-cated at 36.2N and 90.9E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of MS=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of MS=8.1 involves in the lar-ger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and fore-casting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.

关键词： seismicity Earthquake prediction great Kunlun Pass earthquake of MS=8.1

Effective Feature Selection for Short-term Earthquake prediction Using NeuroFuzzy Classifier

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Effective Feature Selection for Short-term Earthquake Predic...

Research　on　nonlinear　R／S　method　and　its　application　in　earthquake　prediction

2010 Second IITA International Conference on Geoscience and Remote Sensing (IITA-GRS 2010)

作者： Leila Dehbozorgi Fardad Farokhi Scientific Association of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Islamic Azad University Centran Tehrasn Branch Assistant Professor Electrical Engineering Department Electrical Engineering Islamic Azad UniversityCentral Tehran Branch

earthquakes is a serious sudden life threatening disaster for all kind of livings. Loss of life,property and depression are some common results of earthquakes for humankinds. The most important matter in this field is to predict earthquake time and strength. This study investigates an application of Neuro-Fuzzy classifier for short-term Earthquake prediction using saved seismogram data. This method is able to predict earthquakes five minute before,with an acceptable accuracy （82.8571%）. The features were obtained from statistical and entropy parameters,Discrete Wavelet Transform （DWT）,Fast Fourier Transform （FFT）,Chaotic Features （Maximum Lyapunov Exponent）,estimated power spectral density （PSD）,and the classifier used this extracted features to indicate whether the earthquake were takes place in the next following five minutes or not. Finally,after training of Neuro-Fuzzy classifier effective features were selected with UTA [1] algorithm.

关键词： Earthquake prediction Short-term prediction Neuro-Fuzzy Classifier Discrete Wavelet Transform （DWT） Feature Selection Maximum Lyapunov Exponent

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1995年第4期8卷 653-658页

作者：王碧泉黄汉明范洪顺王春珍陈佩燕 Institute of Geophysics State Seismological Bureau Beijing China

ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｎｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒＲ／ＳｍｅｔｈｏｄａｎｄｉｔｓｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎＢｉ－ＱｕａｎＷＡＮＧ（王碧泉）；Ｈａｎ－ＭｉｎｇＨＵＡＮＧ（黄汉明）；Ｈｏｎｇ－Ｓ... 详细信息

ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｎｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒＲ／ＳｍｅｔｈｏｄａｎｄｉｔｓｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎＢｉ－ＱｕａｎＷＡＮＧ（王碧泉）；Ｈａｎ－ＭｉｎｇＨＵＡＮＧ（黄汉明）；Ｈｏｎｇ－ＳｈｕｎＦＡＮ（范洪顺）；Ｃｈｕｅｎ...

关键词： nonlinear theory fractal dimension Earthquake prediction R/S method