Cross-fault Newton force measurement for Earthquake prediction

作     者：Manchao He Shulin Ren Zhigang Tao 

作者机构：State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics&Deep Underground EngineeringChina University of Mining&Technology(Beijing)Beijing100083China School of Mechanics and Civil EngineeringChina University of Mining&Technology(Beijing)Beijing100083China 

出 版 物：《Rock Mechanics Bulletin》 (岩石力学通报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第1卷第1期

页      面：33-52页

学科分类：070801[理学-固体地球物理学] 07[理学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 

主　　题：Earthquake prediction Cross-fault Change of Newton force Double-block catastrophic mechanics theory Seismogenic fault 

摘      要：Earthquake prediction is a common scientific challenge for academics worldwide.This dilemma originates from the lack of precursory indicators that meet the sufficient and necessary conditions of earthquake occurrence,which may be the root cause of the failure of earthquake prediction.In light of this,a double-block catastrophic mechanics theory for earthquakes based on cross-fault Newton force measurement is proposed herein.Based on this theory and laboratory physical model tests of seismic Newton force monitoring,a new academic thought is envisioned“the sufficient and necessary condition for earthquake occurrence is the change of Newton force,and the sudden drop of Newton force on the fault surface can be used as a predictor of earthquake disaster.Several equipment systems have been independently developed,and the technology has been successfully applied to engineering practice.This concept has currently been proven in small-scale double-block catastrophic events such as landslides.Based on the double-block catastrophic mechanics theory,landslides and earthquakes have the similar nature but different scales.According to the on-site monitoring of landslides,it is verified that the sudden drop of Newton force can be used as a predictor of landslide disaster which successfully solves the problem of short-term landslide prediction.The introduction of cross-fault Newton force measurement technology and idea has laid a foundation for improving the method and level of international earthquake monitoring and solving the world-class scientific problem of short-term earthquake prediction.