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Time-varying and state-dependent recovery rates in epidemiological models

Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第4期2卷 419-430页

作者： scott Greenhalgh Troy Day Department of Mathematics Siena CollegeLoudonvilleNY12211USA Department of Mathematics and Statistics Queen's UniversityJeffery HallKingstonONK7L 3N6Canada

Differential equation models of infectious disease have undergone many theoretical extensions that are invaluable for the evaluation of disease *** instance,while one traditionally uses a bilinear term to describe the incidence rate of infection,physically more realistic generalizations exist to account for effects such as the saturation of ***,such theoretical extensions of recovery rates in differential equation models have only started to be *** is despite the fact that a constant rate often does not provide a good description of the dynamics of recovery and that the recovery rate is arguably as important as the incidence rate in governing the dynamics of a *** provide a first-principles derivation of state-dependent and time-varying recovery rates in differential equation models of infectious *** this derivation,we demonstrate how to obtain time-varying and state-dependent recovery rates based on the family of Pearson distributions and a power-law distribution,*** recovery rates based on the family of Pearson distributions,we show that uncertainty in skewness,in comparison to other statistical moments,is at least two times more impactful on the sensitivity of predicting an epidemic's *** addition,using recovery rates based on a power-law distribution,we provide a procedure to obtain state-dependent recovery *** such state-dependent rates,we derive a natural connection between recovery rate parameters with the mean and standard deviation of a power-law distribution,illustrating the impact that standard deviation has on the shape of an epidemic wave.

关键词： Differential equations Integral equations Infectious disease modeling Waiting time distribution Duration of infectiousness SIR epidemic model

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Assessing vulnerability to panic:a systematic review of psychological and physiological responses to biological challenges as prospective predictors of panic attacks and panic disorder

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General Psychiatry 2019年第6期32卷 297-303页

作者： Donald J Robinaugh Meredith J Ward Emma R Toner Mackenzie l Brown Olivia M losiewicz Eric Bui scott P Orr Department of Psychiatry Massachusetts General HospitalBostonMassachusettsUSA Department of Psychiatry Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusettsUSA

Background Cognitive-behavioural theories of panic disorder posit that panic attacks arise from a positive feedback loop between arousal-related bodily sensations and perceived *** a recently develope computational model formalising these theories of pani attacks,it was observed that the response to a simulate perturbation to arousal provided a strong indicator of vulnerability to panic attacks and panic *** this/review,we evaluate whether this observation is borne o in the empirical literature that has examined responses biological challenge(eg,C02 inhalation)and their relatio to subsequent panic attacks and panic *** We searched PubMed,Web of Science and PsycINFO using keywords denoting provocation agents(eg,sodium lactate)and procedures(eg,infusion)combined with keywords relevant to panic disorder(eg,panic).Articles were eligible if they used response to a biologic challenge paradigm to prospectively predict panic attac or panic *** We identified four eligible *** effect sizes suggest that there is biological challenge response a moderate prospective association with subsequent pani attacks,but no prospective relationship with panic disorde Conclusions These findings provide support for the prediction derived from cognitive-behavioural theories an some preliminary evidence that response to a biological challenge may have clinical utility as a marker of vulnerab to panic attacks pending further research and developme Trial registration number 135908.

关键词： behaviour subsequent sizes

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Magnetically controlled growing instrumentation for early onset scoliosis: Caution needed when interpreting the literature

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World Journal of Orthopedics 2019年第11期10卷 394-403页

作者： Kenneth Aaron Shaw Justin M Hire scott Kim Dennis P Devito Michael l Schmitz Joshua S Murphy Department of Orthopaedic Surgery Dwight D.Eisenhower Army Medical CenterFort GordonGA 30905United States Department of Orthopaedic Surgery General Leonard Wood Army Community HospitalFort Leonard WoodMO 65473United States University of Tennessee Health Science Center MemphisTN 38163United States Department of Pediatric Orthopaedic Surgery Children’s Healthcare of AtlantaScottish Rite CampusAtlantaGA 30342United States

BACKGROUND Magnetically controlled growing rods(MCGR) are a novel treatment option for early onset scoliosis(EOS). Although the complication profile with MCGR use has been reviewed, these reviews do not take into account important implants modifications, termed iterations, that were made due to early on postoperative complications is not well reported or *** To assess the effect of MCGR implant iterations on post-operative complications in *** A systematic review was performed to identify studies investigating MCGR specifically for the treatment of EOS, refined to those reporting the implant iteration, specifically the incorporation of the keeper plate to the implant *** with mixed implant iteration usage were excluded. Complications following surgery were recorded as well as potential risk factors and compared between implant *** Although 20 articles were identified for inclusion, 5 included mixed implant iteration leaving a total of 271 patients identified through 15 clinical studies thatmet inclusion criteria. The average follow-up was 25.4-mo. Pre-keeper plate implants were utilized in 3 studies with a total of 49 patients. Overall, 115(42.4%)post-operative complications were identified, with 87% defined as major. The addition of the keeper plate significantly decreased the rate of post-operative complications per study(35.7% vs 80.6%, P = 0.036), and the rate of distraction failure(8.1% vs 40.8%, P = 0.02). Unplanned reoperation occurred in 69(26.7%)patients but was not different between implant iteration cohorts(25.5% without keeper plate vs 27.1% with keeper plate, P = 0.92).CONClUSION MCGR for EOS has a cumulative complication rate of 42.4% but this is significantly reduced to 35.7% when reviewing only keeper-plate enabled implants. However, 25% of published articles included mixed implant *** studies should discern between implants iterations when reporting on the usage of MCGR for EOS.

关键词： Complications Early onset scoliosis Magnetically controlled growing instrumentations Keeper plate Reoperation Systematic review

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High association strengths are linked to phenotypic similarity,including plumage color and patterns,of participants in mixed-species bird flocks of southwestern China

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Current Zoology 2024年第1期70卷 34-44页

作者： liping Zhou Christos Mammides Youfang Chen Wenyi Zhou Wenzhang Dai Edward l.Braun Rebecca T.Kimball Yang liu scott K.Robinson Eben Goodale Guangxi Key laboratory of Forest Ecology and Conservation College of ForestryGuangxi UniversityNanning 530004China Kunming Natural History Museum of Zoology Kunming Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesKunming 650223China Nature Conservation Unit Frederick University7Yianni Frederickou StreetPallouriotissaNicosia 1036Cyprus State Key laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100093China Florida Museum of Natural History University of FloridaGainesvilleFL 34201USA Department of Biology University of FloridaGainesvilleFL 34201USA School of life Science and Institute of Wetland Ecology Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210000China State Key laboratory of Biocontrol School of EcologySun-Yatsen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China Department of Health and Environmental Science Xi'an Jiaotong Liverpool UniversitySuzhou 215123China

Participants in mixed-species bird flocks(MSFs)have been shown to associate with species that are similar in body size,diet,and evolutionary history,suggesting that facilitation structures these *** addition,several studies have suggested that species in MsFs resemble each other in their plumage,but this question has not been systematically investigated for any MsF *** the nonbreeding season of 2020 and 2021,we sampled 585 MSFs on 14 transects in 2 habitats of Tongbiguang Nature Reserve in western Yunnan Province,*** performed social network analysis and the Multiple Regression Quadratic Assignment Procedure to evaluate the effect of 4 species traits(body size,overall plumage color,distinctive plumage patterns,and diet)and evolutionary history on species association strength at the whole-MSF and within-MSF *** 41 significant relationships showed that species with stronger associations were more similar in their various *** size had the strongest effect on association strength,followed by phylogeny,plumage patterns,and plumage color;diet had the weakest *** results are consistent with the hypotheses that the benefits of associating with phenotypically similar species outweigh the potential costs of interspecific competition,and that trait matching can occur in plumage characteristics,albeit more weakly than in other *** explanations exist as to why similarities in plumage may occur in MSFs,including that they could reduce predators'ability to target phenotypically"odd"*** trait matching in plumage occurs through assortative processes in ecological time or is influenced by co-evolution requires furtherstudy.

关键词： co-evolution interaction networks mixed-species animal groups phenotypic similarity trait convergence

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Soil carbon availability affects nitrogen transformation under irrigated lucerne

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Pedosphere 2021年第6期31卷 977-980页

作者： Adriano S.NASCENTE Jonathan NUNEZ scott l.GRAHAM Gabriel *** John E.HUNT Graeme N.D.ROGERS David WHITEHEAD Manaaki Whenua-landcare Research P.O.Box 69040Lincoln 7640(New Zealand) Embrapa Arroz e Feijao Highway GO-462Km 12P.O.Box 179Santo Antonio de Goias 75375-000(Brazil) Wageningen University&Research Department of Environmental SciencesP.O.Box 47Wageningen 6700AA(The Netherlands)

Dear Editor,Approximately 55% of the agricultural land in New Zealand is grazed grassland to support the expanding dairy and meat *** management practices such as irrigation,nitrogen(N)fertiliser application,and of fo... 详细信息

关键词： grassland expanding transformation

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Bravo (wireless) ambulatory esophageal pH monitoring: How do day 1 and day 2 results compare?

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2007年第30期13卷 4091-4095页

作者： Matthew l Bechtold Jason-scott l Holly Klaus Thaler John B Marshall Division of Gastroenterology University of Missouri Hospital and Clinics Columbia MO 65212 United States General Surgery University of Missouri Hospital and Clinics Columbia MO 65212 United States

AIM： To investigate if differences exist for patients＇ gastroesophageal reflux as measured by the Bravo ambulatory esophageal pH system between d 1 and d 2.METHODS： A retrospective study of 27 consecutive adult patients who underwent Bravo esophageal pH monitoring was performed. Patients underwent EGD under Ⅳ conscious sedation prior to Bravo placement. Acid reflux variables and symptom scores for d 1 were compared to d 2.RESUlTS： The mean doses of fentanyl and midazolam were 90.4 μg and 7.2 mg, respectively. D 1 results were significantly more elevated than d 2 with respect to total time pH 〈 4, upright position reflux, and mean number of long refluxes. No statistical difference was noted between the two days for supine position reflux, number of refluxes, duration of longest reflux, episodes of heartburn, and symptom score.CONClUSION： Patients undergoing Bravo esophageal pH monitoring in association with EGD and moderate conscious sedation experience significantly more acid reflux on d i compared to d 2. The Ⅳ sedation may be responsible for the increased reflux on d 1. Performed this way, 48-h Bravo results may not be entirely representative of the patients＇ true GE reflux profile.

关键词： Esophageal pH monitoring Bravo Gastroeso- phageal reflux disease Reflux pH testing

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Identification of QTls for berry acid and tannin in a Vitis aestivalisderived‘Norton'-based population

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Fruit Research 2021年第1期1卷 68-78页

作者： Karlene l.Negus li-ling Chen Jonathan Fresnedo-Ramírez Heather A.scott Gavin l.Sacks lance Cadle-Davidson Chin-Feng Hwang Department of Environmental Plant Science and Natural Resources and State Fruit Experiment Station at Mountain Grove Campus Missouri State UniversitySpringfieldMO 65897USA Department of Horticulture and Crop Science Ohio State UniversityWoosterOH 44691USA Department of Food Science Cornell UniversityIthacaNY 14853USA USDA-ARS Grape Genetics Research Unit GenevaNY 14456USA

Acidity and tannins are among the grape berry quality traits that influence wine *** advantageous environmental tolerances of Vitis aestivalis-derived‘Norton',its acidity and tannin concentrations often deviate from expectations set for *** of the genetic determinants of malic acid,tartaric acid,pH,and tannin can assist in the improvement of new hybrid *** this purpose,a‘Norton'and ***‘Cabernet Sauvignon'hybrid population containing 223 individuals was used to construct a linkage map containing 384 simple sequence repeat(SSR)and 2,084 genotyping-by-sequencing(GBS)-derived single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP)*** resulting map was 1,441.9 cM in length with an average inter-marker distance of 0.75 cM and spanned 19 linkage groups(lGs).Quantitative trait loci(QTls)were detected for malic acid,tartaric acid,pH,and *** for malic acid(lG 8)and pH(lG 6)were observed across multiple years and explained approximately 17.7%and 18.5%of the phenotypic variation,***,QTls for tartaric acid were identified on linkage groups 1,6,7,9,and 17 and tannin on lG 2 in single-year *** QTls for tartaric acid explained between 8.8−14.3%and tannin explained 24.7%of the phenotypic *** markers linked to these QTls can be used to improve hybrid cultivar breeding through marker-assisted selection.

关键词： linkage explained approximate

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Alterations in renin-angiotensin receptors are not responsible for exercise preconditioning of skeletal muscle fibers

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Sports Medicine and Health Science 2021年第3期3卷 148-156页

作者： Branden l.Nguyen Toshinori Yoshihara Rafael Deminice Jensen lawrence Mustafa Ozdemir Hayden Hyatt scott K.Powers Department of Applied Physiology and Kinesiology University of FloridaGainesville32611FloridaUSA Department of Exercise Physiology Juntendo UniversityTokyo270-1695Japan Department of Physical Education University of Estadual of LondrinaLondrina10011Brazil

Endurance exercise training promotes a protective phenotype in skeletal muscle known as exercise *** preconditioning protects muscle fibers against a variety of threats including inactivity-induced muscle *** mechanism(s)responsible for exercise preconditioning remain unknown and are explored in these ***,we investigated the impact of endurance exercise training on key components of the renin-angiotensin system(RAS).The RAS was targeted because activation of the classical axis of the RAS pathway via angiotensinⅡtypeⅠreceptors(AT1Rs)promotes muscle atrophy whereas activation of the non-classical RAS axis via Mas receptors(MasRs)inhibits the atrophic signaling of the classical RAS *** by prior studies,we hypothesized that an exercise-induced decrease in AT1Rs and/or increases in MasRs in skeletal muscle fibers is a potential mechanism responsible for exercise *** endurance exercise training in rats,we examined the abundance of AT1Rs and MasRs in both locomotor and respiratory *** results indicate that endurance exercise training does not alter the protein abundance of AT1Rs or MasRs in muscle fibers from the diaphragm,plantaris,and soleus muscles compared to sedentary controls(p>0.05).Furthermore,fluorescent angiotensinⅡ(AngⅡ)binding analyses confirm our results that exercise pre-conditioning does not alter the protein abundance of AT1Rs in the diaphragm,plantaris,and soleus(p>0.05).This study confirms that exercise-induced changes in RAS receptors are not a key mechanism that contributes to the beneficial effects of exercise preconditioning in skeletal muscle fibers.

关键词： Exercise preconditioning Renin-angiotensin system Skeletal muscle disuse atrophy Skeletal muscle

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Computational discovery of ultra-strong, stable, and lightweight refractory multi-principal element alloys. Part II: comprehensive ternary design and validation

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npj Computational Materials 2023年第1期9卷 1469-1481页

作者： Kate l.M.Elder Joel Berry Aurélien Perron Brandon Bocklund Jibril Shittu Connor J.Rietema Hunter B.Henderson scott K.McCall Joseph T.McKeown Materials Science Division Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryLivermoreCA 94550USA.✉

Here the discovery of refractory multi-principal element alloys(MPEAs)with high-temperature strength and stability is pursued within a constrained and application-relevant design space.A comprehensive approach is developed and applied to explore all 165 ternary systems in the Al-Ce-Fe-Hf-Mo-Nb-Ta-Ti-V-W-Zr family.A subset of ternary systems that contain large areas in composition–temperature space with high strength and robust BCC phase stability is *** sets of high-performing alloys are identified,each set optimized for one combination of phase constraint,optimization target,and temperature *** mechanical tests support the viability of the *** work highlights the importance of considering phase stability,exploring non-equiatomic regions of composition space,and applying application-relevant *** I and II provide three down-selection techniques for identifying high-performing BCC refractory MPEAs,design guidelines,and many candidates predicted to have BCC phase stability and strengths 2–3 times higher than any reported to date.

关键词： alloys element ternary

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Mechanisms of Action of Noninvasive Monopolar Radiofrequency: Technology Review

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Open Journal of Orthopedics 2013年第1期3卷 23-28页

作者： Terry l. Whipple scott P. Steinmann Department of Orthopaedics Mayo Clinic Rochester USA. Orthopaedic Research of Virginia Richmond USA

Tendinosis is now understood as the result of a failed tendon healing process regardless of where it occurs in the body. Current noninvasive therapeutic alternatives are anti-inflammatory in nature and outcomes are unpredictable at best. The benefit of invasive alternatives resides in the induction of the healing response as demonstrated in pre-clinical and clinical studies in cardiology and orthopaedics. A new technology that employs noninvasivemonopolar capacitive-coupled radiofrequency (mcRF), has demonstrated the ability to raise temperatures in tendons and ligaments upwards of 50°C, the temperature threshold for collagen modulation and recruitment of macrophages, fibroblasts and Heat Shock Protein factors—without damaging the overlying structures—resulting in activation of the Wound Healing Response (WHR).

关键词： Thermal Shrinkage Thermoplasty Heat-Shock AT2 Radiofrequency Collagen Denaturation Tendinosis Wound Healing Response Tendinopathy Microtenotomy Antinociceptive

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