Time-varying and state-dependent recovery rates in epidemiological models

作     者：Scott Greenhalgh Troy Day 

作者机构：Department of MathematicsSiena CollegeLoudonvilleNY12211USA Department of Mathematics and StatisticsQueen's UniversityJeffery HallKingstonONK7L 3N6Canada 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2017年第2卷第4期

页      面：419-430页

学科分类：07[理学] 0701[理学-数学] 070101[理学-基础数学] 

主　　题：Differential equations Integral equations Infectious disease modeling Waiting time distribution Duration of infectiousness SIR epidemic model 

摘      要：Differential equation models of infectious disease have undergone many theoretical extensions that are invaluable for the evaluation of disease *** instance,while one traditionally uses a bilinear term to describe the incidence rate of infection,physically more realistic generalizations exist to account for effects such as the saturation of ***,such theoretical extensions of recovery rates in differential equation models have only started to be *** is despite the fact that a constant rate often does not provide a good description of the dynamics of recovery and that the recovery rate is arguably as important as the incidence rate in governing the dynamics of a *** provide a first-principles derivation of state-dependent and time-varying recovery rates in differential equation models of infectious *** this derivation,we demonstrate how to obtain time-varying and state-dependent recovery rates based on the family of Pearson distributions and a power-law distribution,*** recovery rates based on the family of Pearson distributions,we show that uncertainty in skewness,in comparison to other statistical moments,is at least two times more impactful on the sensitivity of predicting an epidemic s *** addition,using recovery rates based on a power-law distribution,we provide a procedure to obtain state-dependent recovery *** such state-dependent rates,we derive a natural connection between recovery rate parameters with the mean and standard deviation of a power-law distribution,illustrating the impact that standard deviation has on the shape of an epidemic wave.