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Twenty years of population dynamics in European beech-oak forest at their rear range margin anticipate changes in its structure and composition

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Forest Ecosystems 2024年第3期11卷 358-370页

作者： álvaro Rubio-Cuadrado Iciar Alberdi Isabel Canellas Fernando Montes Jesús Rodríguez-Calcerrada Rosana López guillermo G.Gordaliza María Valbuena-Carabana Nikos Nanos Ramón Perea luis Gil Departamento de dinamica y gestion forestal Instituto de Ciencias Forestales(ICIFOR-INIA)CSICCtra.La Coruna km 7.528040MadridSpain Departamento de Sistemas y Recursos Naturales Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingeniería de MontesForestal y del Medio NaturalUniversidad Politecnica de Madrid.Ciudad Universitaria s/n28040MadridSpain School of Forestry and Natural Environment Aristotle University of ThessalonikiUniversity Campus54124ThessalonikiGreece

There is an increasing interest in restoring degraded forests,which occupy half of the forest *** the forms of restoration,passive restoration,which involves the elimination of degrading factors and the free evolution of natural dynamics by applying minimal or no management,is gaining *** dynamics is difficult to predict due to the influence of multiple interacting factors such as climatic and edaphic conditions,composition and abundance of species,and the successional character of these ***,we study the natural dynamics of a mixed forest located in central Spain,which maintained an open forest structure,due to intensive use,until grazing and cutting were banned in the *** most frequent woody species in this forest are Fagus sylvatica,Quercus petraea,Quercus pyrenaica,Ilex aquifolium,Sorbus aucuparia,Sorbus aria and Prunus avium,with contrasting shade and drought *** species are common in temperate European deciduous forest and are found here near their southern distribution limit,except for *** order to analyze forest dynamics and composition,three inventories were carried out in 1994,2005 and *** results show that,despite the Mediterranean influence,the natural dynamics of this forest has been mainly determined by different levels of shade *** the abandonment of grazing and cutting,*** expanded rapidly due to its lower shade tolerance,whereas after canopy closure and forest densification,shade-tolerant species gained ground,particularly ***,despite its lower drought and late-frost *** the current dynamics continue,*** will overtake the rest of the species,which will be relegated to sites with shallow soils and steep ***,all the multi-centennial beech trees,which are undergoing a rapid mortality and decline process,will disappear.

关键词： Forest succession Secondary forest Woodland Mixed forest Competition Recruitment

Woody plant taxonomic,functional,and phylogenetic diversity decrease along elevational gradients in Andean tropical montane forests:Environmental filtering and arrival of temperate taxa

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Plant Diversity 2024年第4期46卷 491-501页

作者： guillermo Bañares-de-Dios Manuel J.Macía Gabriel Arellano Íñigo Granzow-de la Cerda Julia Vega-álvarez Itziar Arnelas Carlos I.Espinosa Norma Salinas luis Cayuela Departamento de Biología y Geología Física y Química InorgánicaUniversidad Rey Juan CarlosCalle Tulipán s/nMóstolesMadridES-28933Spain Departamento de Biología Área de BotánicaUniversidad Autónoma de MadridCalle Darwin 2MadridES-28049Spain Centro de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Cambio Global(CIBC-UAM) Universidad Autónoma de MadridCalle Darwin 2MadridES-28049Spain Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of MichiganAnn ArborMI 48109USA Oikobit LLC ***AlbuquerqueNM87120USA Real Jardín Botánico–CSIC Plaza Murillo 2MadridES-28014Spain Departamento de Biología Animal EcologíaParasitologíaEdafología y Química AgrícolaUniversidad de SalamancaCalle Donantes de Sangre s/nSalamancaES-37007Spain Departamento de Biodiversidad Ecología y EvoluciónUniversidad Complutense de MadridCalle JoséAntonio Nováis 12Ciudad UniversitariaES-28040Spain Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias Universidad Técnica Particular de LojaA.P.11-01-608 LojaEcuador Sección Química Pontificia Universidad Católica del PerúA.P.Lima 32LimaPeru ECI School of Geography and EnvironmentUniversity of OxfordOX13QYOxfordshireUnited Kingdom Instituto de Investigación en Cambio Global(IICG-URJC) Universidad Rey Juan CarlosCalle Tulipán s/nMóstolesMadridES-28933Spain

Mountains are paramount for exploring biodiversity patterns due to the mosaic of topographies and climates encompassed over short *** research has traditionally focused on taxonomic diversity when investigating changes along elevational gradients,but other facets should be *** first time,we simultaneously assessed elevational trends in taxonomic,functional,and phylogenetic diversity of woody plants in Andean tropical montane forests and explored their underlying ecological and evolutionary *** investigation covered four transects(traversing ca.2200 m a.s.l.) encompassing 114 plots of 0.1 ha across a broad latitudinal range(ca.10°).Using Hill numbers to quantify abundance-based diversity among 37,869 individuals we observed a consistent decrease in taxonomic,functional,and phylogenetic diversity as elevation increased,although the decrease was less pronounced for higher Hill *** exception was a slight increase in phylogenetic diversity when dominant species were *** decrease in taxonomic and functional diversity might be attributed to an environmental filtering process towards highlands,where the increasingly harsher conditions exclude species and functional ***,the differences in steepness decrease between Hill orders suggest that rare species disproportionately contribute to functional *** phylogenetic diversity the shifting elevational trend between Hill orders indicates a greater than previously considered influence in central Andean highlands of tropical lowlands originated species with strong niche conservatism relative to distantly related temperate *** could be explained by a decreasing presence and abundance of temperate,extratropical taxa towards the central Andes relative to northern or southern Andes,where they are more prevalent.

关键词： Altitudinal gradients Andes Environmentalﬁltering Out of the Tropical Lowlands Functional rarity Tropical Niche Conservatism

Correlation between Intestinal Health and Coccidiosis Prevalence in Broilers during Different Seasons of the Year in Brazil from 2012 to 2018

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Food and Nutrition Sciences 2024年第3期15卷 179-198页

作者： Fabio luis Gazoni Gabriela Miotto Galli Marcel Manente Boiago Lenita Moura Stefani Aline Zampar Marco A. Juárez-Estrada guillermo Tellez-Isaias Aleksandro S. da Silva Animal Health and Reproduction Veterinary Medicine Graduate Program Federal University of Santa Maria (UFSM) Santa Maria Brazil Animal Science Graduate Program Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) Porto Alegre Brazil Animal Science Graduate Program Santa Catarina State University (UDESC) Chapecó Brazil Departamento de Medicina y Zootecnia de Aves Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Ciudad Universitaria Ciudad de Mexico Mexico Department of Poultry Science Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas Fayetteville AR USA

Coccidiosis is a disease caused by intracellular protozoan parasites, specifically belonging to the genus Eimeria. These parasites target the gastrointestinal tract in different types of hosts, causing sores in the intestinal lining. The presence of these lesions reduces the animal’s ability to digest and absorb nutrients, significantly impacting their overall performance. The current study aimed to explore the potential correlation between seasonal variations and the incidence of Eimeria spp-induced lesions in broiler chickens’ gastrointestinal tracts in Brazil from 2012 to 2018. A total of 8,607 broiler chickens, aged 14 to 42 days, were sampled from 103 poultry integrated companies in Brazil to conduct intestinal health examinations. The sampling process involved selecting 3 to 6 chickens from each poultry house for examination. The assessment included various abnormalities such as shedding of intestinal cells and excessive fluid and mucus presence, thickening and tension of the intestines, food movement, roughened mucosal surface resembling a Turkish towel in the small intestine, tissue death, duodenal inflammation, intestinal inflammation, gizzard erosion, presence of worms and bedding material, and ingestion of mealworms. During the seasons, winter exhibited the highest average occurrence of Eimeria maxima microorganisms at 52.83%, with E. acervulina following closely at 26.42% in second place. In spring, E. maxima had an occurrence of 11.31%, while in fall, E. tenella had the lowest occurrence at 6.74%. When analyzing the seasonal occurrence of Eimeria, it was observed that E. maxima micro was more common during winter compared to summer (P = 0.0491). However, no discernible variation was observed in the occurrence of the remaining species across different seasons. Research findings suggest that subclinical coccidiosis is most prevalent during the winter season in Brazil. Likewise, clinical disease caused by E. acervulina is also prevalent during this time. I

关键词： Eimeria Epidemiology Intestinal Pathology Broiler Chickens Brazil

The Beneficial Effects of Components of Garlic (Allium sativum L.) in the Poultry Industry

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Food and Nutrition Sciences 2024年第1期15卷 27-57页

作者： Alejandra Meza-Rios Gilberto Velazquez-Juarez Inkar Castellanos-Huerta Rocio Ivette Lopez-Roa luis A. Anguiano-Sevilla Xochitl Hernanez-Velasco Xochitl Hernanez-Velasco Saeed El-Ashram Ebtsam Al-Olayan Billy Hargis guillermo Tellez-Isaias Adelaida Sara Minia Zepeda-Morales Departamento de Farmacobiología CUCEI Universidad de Guadalajara Blvd. M. García Barragán Guadalajara México Laboratorio de Análisis Fisicoquímicos Externos Departamento de Química CUCEI Universidad de Guadalajara Boulevard Marcelino García Barragán Guadalajara México Center of Excellence for Poultry Science Department of Poultry Science Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural Food and Life Sciences University of Arkansas Cumberland United States Laboratorio de Investigación y Desarrollo Farmacéutico Departamento de Farmacobiología CUCEI Universidad de Guadalajara Boulevard Marcelino García Barragán Guadalajara México Departamento de Medicina y Zootecnia de Aves Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia UNAM Mexico Mexico Zoology Department Faculty of Science Kafrelsheikh University Kafr El-Sheikh Egypt Department of Zoology College of Science King Saud University Riyadh Saudi Arabia Laboratorio de Análisis Clínicos y Bacteriológicos (vinculación) Departamento de Farmacobiología CUCEI Universidad de Guadalajara Boulevard Marcelino García Barragán Guadalajara México

Plant-based antimicrobial agents are readily available, cost-effective, and exhibit low toxicity, making them promising alternatives in combatting microbial infections. Among these plants, garlic (Allium sativum) stands out for its traditional medicinal use in effectively combating various microorganisms. In the poultry industry, preventing avian virus and bacterial infections is paramount for chicken husbandry. However, using conventional drugs poses potential risks to human health. Garlic, a widely used Asian plant in traditional medicine for various pathologies, has shown potential as an herbal prophylactic remedy against viral and bacterial infections. Recently, researchers explored garlic and its derivatives as a scientific strategy in veterinary practices for diverse purposes, such as improving poultry production characteristics and acting as antibiotic growth promoters. This comprehensive review delves into garlic and its derivatives as preventive and corrective treatments for viral diseases in laying hens and broilers. The paper highlights their potential effectiveness and safety as a natural means to enhance poultry health and welfare while mitigating the risks associated with conventional drug usage in the food industry.

关键词： Garlic Antiviral Veterinary Chickens Allium sativum

加夫列尔·加西亚·马尔克斯图书馆,巴塞罗那,西班牙

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世界建筑 2024年第5期 76-81页

作者：无 Elena Orte guillermo Sevillano Marta Romero Jesús Lopez luis Sierra Ana Patricia Minguito Pablo Corroto María Abellán Sara Contreras RitaÁlvarez Tabio MiguelÁngel Maure Jesús Granada(摄影) SUMA建筑设计事务所不详

加布里埃尔·加西亚·马尔克斯图书馆是巴塞罗那的第40座图书馆,也是巴塞罗那30年计划的结晶。该计划旨在建立一个由优秀社区与区域设施组成的密集网络。这座图书馆位于圣马蒂德普罗旺斯区,为53,000人提供服务。关联式建筑图书馆被设计... 详细信息

加布里埃尔·加西亚·马尔克斯图书馆是巴塞罗那的第40座图书馆,也是巴塞罗那30年计划的结晶。该计划旨在建立一个由优秀社区与区域设施组成的密集网络。这座图书馆位于圣马蒂德普罗旺斯区,为53,000人提供服务。关联式建筑图书馆被设计成一座雕塑式实体建筑,让人联想到堆叠的书籍及其折叠的书页。该馆坐落在一处高架广场上,方便周围行人来往。同时,它又在空地上悬挑而出,门廊由现有的树木环绕,形成了一座城市大厅。不同大小及结构的开口定义了其不同立面与周围环境的关系。

关键词：巴塞罗那普罗旺斯周围环境加布里埃尔加西亚·马尔克斯图书馆关联式西班牙

From liver to hormones:The endocrine consequences of cirrhosis

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2024年第9期30卷 1073-1095页

作者： Juan Eduardo Quiroz-Aldave Elman Rolando Gamarra-Osorio María del Carmen Durand-Vásquez Luciana del Pilar Rafael-Robles Jhean Gabriel Gonzáles-Yovera María Alejandra Quispe-Flores luis Alberto Concepción-Urteaga Alejandro Román-González José Paz-Ibarra Marcio José Concepción-Zavaleta Non-communicable Diseases Endocrinology Research LineHospital de Apoyo ChepénChepén 13871Peru Department of Endocrinology Hospital Víctor Lazarte EchegarayTrujillo 13006Peru Department of Endocrinology Clínica Javier PradoLima 15046Peru Department of Gastroenterology Hospital Nacional Guillermo Almenara IrigoyénLima 15018Peru Department of Endocrinology Hospital de Emergencias GrauLima 15001Peru Internal Medicine Hospital Regional Docente de TrujilloTrujillo 13011Peru Department of Endocrinology Hospital Universitario de San Vicente FundaciónMedellin 050010Colombia Internal Medicine Universidad de AntioquiaMedellín 050010Colombia School of Medicine Universidad Nacional Mayor de San MarcosLima 15081Peru Department of Endocrinology Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati MartinsLima 15072Peru Carrera de Medicina Humana Universidad Científica del SurLima 15067Peru

Hepatocrinology explores the intricate relationship between liver function and the endocrine *** liver diseases such as liver cirrhosis can cause endocrine disorders due to toxin accumulation and protein synthesis *** its importance,assessing endocrine issues in cirrhotic patients is frequently *** article provides a comprehensive review of the epidemiology,pathophysiology,diagnosis,and treatment of endocrine disturbances in liver *** review was conducted using the PubMed/Medline,EMBASE,and Scielo databases,encompassing 172 *** cirrhosis is associated with endocrine disturbances,including diabetes,hypoglycemia,sarcopenia,thyroid dysfunction,hypogonadotropic hypogonadism,bone disease,adrenal insufficiency,growth hormone dysfunction,and secondary *** optimal tools for diagnosing diabetes and detecting hypoglycemia are the oral glucose tolerance test and continuous glucose monitoring system,*** can be assessed through imaging and functional tests,while other endocrine disorders are evaluated using hormonal assays and imaging *** options include metformin,glucagon-like peptide-1 analogs,sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors,and insulin,which are effective and safe for diabetes *** standards are followed for managing hypoglycemia,and hormone replacement therapy is often necessary for other endocrine *** transplantation can address some of these problems.

关键词： Diabetes mellitus Hypoglycemia Thyroid diseases Hypogonadism Metabolic bone diseases Liver cirrhosis

Physical and chemical characterization of sediments from an Andean river exposed to mining and agricultural activities: The Moquegua River, Peru

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International Journal of Sediment Research 2022年第6期37卷 780-793页

作者： luis de Los Santos Valladares Juan luis Ccamapaza Renato Arturo Valencia-Bedregal luis Enrique Borja-Castro Jose Velazquez-Garcia Dehiwalage Harshani Nimalika Perera Adrian Ionescu David Arvidsson Eustace Peregrine Barnes Peter Newton Hugo Lepage Patrick Byrne Angel guillermo Bustamante Dominguez Crispin H.W.Barnes Cavendish Laboratory Department of Physics University of Cambridge Escuela Acad emico Profesional de Ingeniería Ambiental Universidad Nacional de Moquegua Provincia de Mariscal Nieto Laboratorio de Cer amicos y Nanomateriales Facultad de Ciencias Físicas Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos School of Biological and Environmental Science Liverpool John Moores University

This study presents an analysis of sediments in an Andean river impacted by both natural conditions and anthropogenic activities. Fifty samples were collected from selected sites throughout the Moquegua River drainage basin, and Tambo River headwaters at Pasto Grande, in Peru, and analysed with X-ray diffraction, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and thermogravimetric analysis. Si, Ca, Al, Fe, and O, common constituents of soils, were dominant, along with K, N, and P. The latter originating as primary macronutrients or chemical residuals from fertilizers used in agriculture. Higher concentrations of macronutrients and organic components were found in agricultural and urban areas, respectively. Arsenic minerals were also detected, which occur naturally, but possibly at levels augmented by anthropogenic activity. The application of cluster analysis revealed clustering between arsenic, arsenolite, and potassium but no significant geospatial correlation between sample sites in the drainage basin.

关键词： Andean river Moquegua river Sediments Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy TG-DTG/DTA Clustering analysis

Fagus sylvatica and Quercus pyrenaica:Two neighbors with few things in common

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Forest Ecosystems 2023年第2期10卷 162-175页

作者： Sergio de Tomás Marín Jesús Rodríguez-Calcerrada Salvador Arenas-Castro Iván Prieto guillermo González luis Gil Enrique G.de la Riva Department of Ecology Brandenburgische Technische Universität Cottbus-SenftenbergKonrad-Wachsmann-Allee 603046CottbusGermany Forest Genetics and Ecophysiology Research Group School of Forestry EngineeringUniversidad Politécnica de MadridMadridSpain Area of Ecology Botany DepartmentEcology and Plant PhysiologyFaculty of SciencesUniversidad de CórdobaCórdobaSpain Ecology Department Faculty of Biology and Environmental SciencesUniversidad de LeónLeónSpain

Background:The Iberian Peninsula comprises one of the largest boundaries between Mediterranean and Eurosiberian vegetation,known as sub-Mediterranean *** ecotone hosts many unique plant species and communities and constitutes the low-latitude(warm)margin of numerous central European species which co-occur with Mediterranean *** of the main species found in this region are the Eurosiberian European beech(Fagus sylvatica L.)and the Mediterranean Pyrenean oak(Quercus pyrenaica Willd.).It remains unclear how the different physiological and adaptive strategies of these two species reflect their niche partitioning within a subMediterranean community and to what extent phenotypic variation(intraspecific variability)is driving niche partitioning across Eurosiberian and Mediterranean ***:We quantified functional niche partitioning,based on the n-dimensional hypervolume to nine traits related to resource acquisition strategies(leaf,stem and root)plus relative growth rate as an additional wholeplant trait,and the environmental niche similarity between Pyrenean oak and European ***,we analyzed the degree of phenotypic variation of both target species and its relationship with relative growth rates(RGR)and environmental *** recruitment was measured for both target species as a proxy for the average ***:Species’functional space was highly segregated(13.09%overlap),mainly due to differences in niche breadth(59.7%)rather than niche replacement(25.6%),and beech showed higher trait variability,i.e.,had larger functional ***,both species shared the environmental space,i.e.,environmental niches were *** plant traits were not related to abiotic variables or RGR,neither did RGR to plant ***:Both target species share similar environmental space,however,show notably different functional resource-use strategies,promoting a high complementarity that contributes to maintaining a high functiona

关键词： Environmental niche European beech Forest dynamics Functional niche Hypervolume Pyrenean oak Species coexistence Sub-Mediterranean community

Soil organic carbon stocks in native forest of Argentina:a useful surrogate for mitigation and conservation planning under climate variability

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Ecological Processes 2024年第1期13卷 3-24页

作者： Pablo L.Peri Juan Gaitán Matías Mastrangelo Marcelo Nosetto Pablo E.Villagra Ezequiel Balducci Martín Pinazo Roxana P.Eclesia Alejandra Von Wallis Sebastián Villarino Francisco Alaggia Marina González Polo Silvina Manrique Pablo A.Meglioli Julián Rodríguez-Souilla Martín Mónaco Jimena E.Chaves Ariel Medina Ignacio Gasparri Eugenio Alvarez Arnesi María Paula Barral Axel von Müller Norberto M.Pahr Josefina Uribe Echevarria Pedro Fernández Marina Morsucci Dardo López Juan Manuel Cellini Leandro Alvarez Ignacio Barberis Hernán Colomb Ludmila La Manna Sebastián Barbaro Cecilia Blundo Ximena Sirimarco Laura Cavallero Gualberto Zalazar guillermo Martínez Pastur Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA) Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral (UNPA) Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET ) Universidad Nacional de Luján Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET ) Grupo de Estudio de Agroecosistemas y Paisajes Rurales (GEAP) Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas(CONICET ) CCT San luis Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET ) Instituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA) Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET ) Universidad Nacional de Cuyo Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente (INIBIOMA) Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET ) Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía No Convencional CCT Salta-JujuyConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET ) Laboratorio de Recursos Agroforestales Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas (CADIC) Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET ) Dirección Nacional de Bosques Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible de la Nación Instituto de Ecología Regional Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET )Universidad Nacional de Tucumán Universidad Nacional de Rosario Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Agrarias de Rosario Centro Científico Tecnológico CONICET Grupo de Estudio de Agroecosistemas y Paisajes Rurales (GEAP) Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET ) Laboratorio de Investigaciones en Maderas (LIMAD) Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP) Administración de Parques Nacionales (APN) Parque Nacional Los Alerces Centro de Estudios Ambientales Integrados (CEAI) Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco (UNPASJB) Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET )

Background The nationally determined contribution（NDC） presented by Argentina within the framework of the Paris Agreement is aligned with the decisions made in the context of the United Nations Framework Conven-tion on Climate Change（UNFCCC） on the reduction of emissions derived from deforestation and forest degradation, as well as forest carbon conservation（REDD+）. In addition, climate change constitutes one of the greatest threats to forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the soil organic carbon（SOC） stocks of native forests have not been incorporated into the Forest Reference Emission Levels calculations and for conservation planning under cli-mate variability due to a lack of information. The objectives of this study were:（i） to model SOC stocks to 30 cm of native forests at a national scale using climatic, topographic and vegetation as predictor variables, and（ii） to relate SOC stocks with spatial–temporal remotely sensed indices to determine biodiversity conservation concerns due to threats from high inter-annual climate *** We used 1040 forest soil samples（0–30 cm） to generate spatially explicit estimates of SOC native forests in Argentina at a spatial resolution of approximately 200 m. We selected 52 potential predictive environmental covari-ates, which represent key factors for the spatial distribution of SOC. All covariate maps were uploaded to the Google Earth Engine cloud-based computing platform for subsequent modelling. To determine the biodiversity threats from high inter-annual climate variability, we employed the spatial–temporal satellite-derived indices based on Enhanced Vegetation Index（EVI） and land surface temperature（LST） images from Landsat *** SOC model（0–30 cm depth） prediction accounted for 69% of the variation of this soil property across the whole native forest coverage in Argentina. Total mean SOC stock reached 2.81 Pg C（2.71–2.84 Pg C with a probability of 90%） for a total area of 460,790 km2,

关键词： Soil organic carbon Biodiversity Native forest Climate change mitigation Modelling Resilience