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Multi-Model Ensemble Projection of Precipitation Changes over China under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2℃ with Consideration of Model Performance and Independence

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 184-197页

作者： Tong li Zhihong JIANG lilong ZHAO laurent li Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/CIC-FEMDNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace(IPSL)Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique(CNRS)Sorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75005France

A weighting scheme jointly considering model performance and independence(PI-based weighting scheme) is employed to deal with multi-model ensemble prediction of precipitation over China from 17 global climate models. Four precipitation metrics on mean and extremes are used to evaluate the model performance and independence. The PIbased scheme is also compared with a rank-based weighting scheme and the simple arithmetic mean(AM) scheme. It is shown that the PI-based scheme achieves notable improvements in western China, with biases decreasing for all parameters. However, improvements are small and almost insignificant in eastern China. After calibration and validation, the scheme is used for future precipitation projection under the 1.5 and 2℃ global warming targets(above preindustrial level). There is a general tendency to wetness for most regions in China, especially in terms of extreme precipitation. The PI scheme shows larger inhomogeneity in spatial distribution. For the total precipitation PRCPTOT(95 th percentile extreme precipitation R95 P), the land fraction for a change larger than 10%(20%) is 22.8%(53.4%)in PI, while 13.3%(36.8%) in AM, under 2℃ global warming. Most noticeable increase exists in central and east parts of western China.

关键词： model performance and independence multi-model ensemble mean and extreme precipitation future projection 1.5 and 2℃global warming

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Additional risk in extreme precipitation in China from 1.5℃to 2.0℃global warming levels

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Science Bulletin 2018年第4期63卷 228-234页

作者： Wei li Zhihong Jiang Xuebin Zhang laurent li Ying Sun Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change CanadaTorontoOntario M3H 5T4Canada Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitesUPMC Universite Paris 06ParisFrance National Climate Center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeifing 100812China

To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 ℃ and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 ℃ above the pre-industrial level. As climate change risks may be region-dependent, changes in magnitude and probability of extreme precipitation over China are investigated under those two global warming levels based on simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Projects Phase 5. The focus is on the added changes due to the additional half a degree warming from 1.5 ℃ to 2 ℃ . Results show that regional average changes in the magnitude do not depend on the return periods with a relative increase around 7% and 11% at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, respectively. The additional half a degree global warming adds an additional increase in the magnitude by nearly 4%. The regional average changes in term of occurrence probabilities show dependence on the return periods, with rarer events(longer return periods) having larger increase of risk. For the 100-year historical event, the probability is projected to increase by a factor of 1.6 and 2.4 at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, *** projected changes in extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios.

关键词： 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warmingExtreme precipitationChina

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Evaluation of Spring Persistent Rainfall over East Asia in CMIP3/CMIP5 AGCM Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第6期30卷 1587-1600页

作者：张洁 laurent li 周天军辛晓歌 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratoire de M'et'eorologie Dynamique/The Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Universit'e Paris 6France National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

The progress made fi＇om Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP3 to CMIP5） in simulating spring persistent rainfall （SPR） over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs）. The majority of the models overestimated the precipitation over the SPR domain, with the mean latitude of the SPR belt shifting to the north. The overestimation was about 1mm d-1 in the CMIP3 ensemble, and the northward displacement was about 3°, while in the CMIP5 ensemble the overestimation was suppressed to 0.7 mm d-i and the northward shift decreased to 2.5°. The SPR features a northeast-southwest extended rain belt with a slope of 0.4°N/°E. The CMIP5 ensemble yielded a smaller slope （0.2°N/°E）, whereas the CMIP3 ensemble featured an unre- alistic zonally-distributed slope. The CMIP5 models also showed better skill in simulating the interannual variability of SPR. Previous studies have suggested that the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and sensible heat flux over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are important for the existence of SPR. These two ther- mal factors were captured well in the CMIP5 ensemble, but underestimated in the CMIP3 ensemble. The variability of zonal land-sea thermal contrast is positively correlated with the rainfall amount over the main SPR center, but it was found that an overestimated thermal contrast between East Asia and South China Sea is a common problem in most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Simulation of the meridional thermal contrast is therefore important for the future improvement of current AGCMs.

关键词： model comparison CMIP3 CMIP5 spring persistent rainfall (SPR) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)

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Variation of Surface Temperature during the Last Millennium in a Simulation with the FGOALS-gl Climate System Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第3期30卷 699-712页

作者：张洁 laurent li 周天军辛晓歌 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/CNRS Université Paris 6 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-gl） developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）. The model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced during the wintertime at higher latitudes. This may be a manifestation of polar amplification associated with sea-ice-temperature positive feedback. The climate responses to total external forcings can explain about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period, especially at decadal timescales. Surface temperature in the Antarctic shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due to the strong internal variability. The model response to specified external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing （CRF）. The CRF acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by a decrease in cloud amount in the ant hropogenic- forcing-dominant period.

关键词： last millennium external forcing surface temperature cloud radiative forcing climate system model

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Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第10期37卷 1119-1132页

作者： Huanhuan ZHU Zhihong JIANG Juan li Wei li Cenxiao SUN and laurent li Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75005France

Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961–2005,the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),and 30 models from phase 5 of CMIP(CMIP5),are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual *** CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean(CMIP6-MME)can simulate well the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature,maximum daily maximum temperature,and minimum daily minimum ***,CMIP6-MME has difficulties in reproducing cold nights and warm days,and has large cold biases over the Tibetan *** performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices is generally lower than in simulating temperature *** to CMIP5,CMIP6 models show improvements in the simulation of climate indices over *** is particularly true for precipitation indices for both the climatological pattern and the interannual variation,except for the consecutive dry *** arealmean bias for total precipitation has been reduced from 127%(CMIP5-MME)to 79%(CMIP6-MME).The most striking feature is that the dry biases in southern China,very persistent and general in CMIP5-MME,are largely reduced in *** ascent together with more abundant moisture can explain this reduction in dry *** biases for total precipitation,heavy precipitation,and precipitation intensity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau are still present in CMIP6-MME,but smaller,compared to CMIP5-MME.

关键词： CMIP6 CMIP5 intercomparison climate extremes

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Intercomparison of multi-model ensemble-processing strategies within a consistent framework for climate projection in China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第9期66卷 2125-2141页

作者： Huanhuan ZHU Zhihong JIANG laurent li Wei li Sheng JIANG Panyu ZHOU Weihao ZHAO Tong li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75005France School of Mathematics and Statistics Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Climate change adaptation and relevant policy-making need reliable projections of future *** based on multi-model ensemble are generally considered as the most efficient way to achieve the ***,their efficiency varies and inter-comparison is a challenging task,as they use a variety of target variables,geographic regions,time periods,or model ***,we construct and use a consistent framework to evaluate the performance of five ensemble-processing methods,i.e.,multimodel ensemble mean(MME),rank-based weighting(RANK),reliability ensemble averaging(REA),climate model weighting by independence and performance(ClimWIP),and Bayesian model averaging(BMA).We investigate the annual mean temperature(Tav)and total precipitation(Prcptot)changes(relative to 1995–2014)over China and its seven subregions at 1.5 and 2℃warming levels(relative to pre-industrial).All ensemble-processing methods perform better than MME,and achieve generally consistent results in terms of median *** they show different results in terms of inter-model spread,served as a measure of uncertainty,and signal-to-noise ratio(SNR).ClimWIP is the most optimal method with its good performance in simulating current climate and in providing credible future *** uncertainty,measured by the range of 10th–90th percentiles,is reduced by about 30%for Tav,and 15%for Prcptot in China,with a certain variation among *** on ClimWIP,and averaged over whole China under 1.5/2℃global warming levels,Tav increases by about 1.1/1.8℃(relative to 1995–2014),while Prcptot increases by about 5.4%/11.2%,*** of projections is found dependent on investigated regions and *** projection for Tav is credible across all regions,as its SNR is generally larger than 2,while the SNR is lower than 1 for Prcptot over most regions under 1.5℃*** largest warming is found in northeastern China,with increase of 1.3(0.6–1.7)/2.0(1.4–2.6)℃(ensemble’s median and range

关键词： Multi-model ensemble simulation Ensemble-processing strategy Global warming targets Climate projection uncertainty assessment Regional climate change in China

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Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming targets

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第2期9卷 120-129页

作者： SHI Chen JIANG Zhi-Hong CHEN Wei-lin laurent li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China Laboratoire de Mbteorologie Dynamique CNRS Sorbonne Universites UPMC Universite Paris 06 Paris 75005 France

The long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ℃. However, for climate mitigation and adaption efforts, further studies are still needed to understand the regional consequences between the two global warming limits. Here we provide an assessment of changes in temperature extremes over China （relative to 1986-2005） at 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming levels （relative to 1861-1900） by using the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） models under three RCP scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5）. Results show that the increases in mean temperature and temperature extremes over China are greater than that in global mean temperature. With respect to 1986-2005, the temperature of hottest day （TXx） and coldest night （TNn） are projected to increase about 1/1.6 ℃ and 1.1/1.8 ℃, whereas warm days （TX90p） and warm spell duration （WSDI） will increase about 7.5/13.8% and 15/30 d for the 1.5/2 ℃ global warming target, respectively. Under an additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, the projected increases of temperature in warmest day/night and coldest day/night are both more than 0.5 ℃ across almost the whole China. In Northwest China, Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau, the projected changes are particularly sensitive to the additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, for example, multi-model mean increase in coldest day （TXn） and coldest night （TNn） will be about 2 times higher than a change of 0.5 ℃ global warming. Although the area-averaged changes in temperature extremes are very similar for different scenarios, spatial hotspot still exists, such as in Northwest China and North China, the increases in temperatures are apparently larger in RCP8.5 than that in RCP4.5.

关键词： 1.5 ℃ global warming 2 ℃ global warming Temperature extremes CMIP5 China

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Bias correction and projection of surface air temperature in LMDZ multiple simulation over central and eastern China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第1期9卷 81-92页

作者： GUO lian-Yi GAO Qian JIANG Zhi-Hong laurent li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044Chin Jiaxiang County Meteorological Service Jining 272400China Laboratory of Meteorological Dynamics UPMC/CNRSIPSLParis 75005France

Based on LMDZ4 daily temperature dataset,equidistant cumulative distribution function matching method(EDCDFm)and cumulative distribution function-transform method(CDF-t)are used to evaluate the ability of models in simulating extreme temperature over central and eastern *** future temperature change is then *** results show that the EDCDFm and CDF-t methods function effectively correct the spatial distribution of daily mean temperature and extreme temperature,significantly reduce the biases of the model simulation and effectively improve the capacity of models for spatial pattern of extreme ***,the cold bias of the CDF-t method in winter is obviously higher than that of the EDCDFm method,and the temperature change curve of the EDCDFm method is closer to the observation than that of the CDF-t *** projection based on the EDCDFm method shows that under the RCP4.5 emission scenario,the temperature in the study area shows a warming *** to 1986e2005,the mean temperature is projected to increase by 0.76,1.84,and 2.10℃during 2017e2036,2046e2065,and 2080e2099,*** spatial change for the mean,maximum,and minimum temperature in the three future periods have good consistency;warming in northern China is higher than that in the *** in temperature projection are large in the Tibetan Plateau and Sichuan *** days decrease significantly,especially in the Tibetan Plateau,and the frost days in the three periods decrease by more than 15,30,and 40 d,*** variation of heat wave indice is the smallest;the increase of heat wave is mainly in eastern China,and the increase in South China is more than 2 ***,under the global warming of 1.5℃and 2℃,the response characteristics of extreme temperature over central and eastern China are also *** results show that the mean temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature in the study area increase by more than 0.75℃under 1.5℃target

关键词： EDCDFm method CDF-T method Future temperature projection 1.5℃and 2℃global warming

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Risks of temperature extremes over China under 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2020年第3期11卷 172-184页

作者： SHI Chen JIANG Zhi-Hong ZHU lian-Hua Xuebin ZHANG YAO Yi-Yi laurent li Laboratory of Research for Middle-High Latitude Circulation System and East Asian Monsoon Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain Meteorology&Climate ChangeInstitute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin ProvinceChangchun130062China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Mathematics and Statistics Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China Climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change CanadaTorontoOntario M3H 5T4Canada Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis75005France

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5℃,recognizing this will reduce the risks of natural disasters *** changes in the risks of temperature extremes are often associated with changes in the temperature probability distribution,further analysis is still needed to improve understanding of the warm extremes over *** this study,changes in the occurrence probability of temperature extremes and statistic characteristics of the temperature distribution are investigated using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)multimodel simulations from 1861 to *** risks of the once-in-100-year TXx and TNx events are projected to increase by 14.4 and 31.4 times at 1.5℃ ***,the corresponding risks under 2℃ global warming are 23.3 and 50.6,implying that the once-in-100-year TXx and TNx events are expected to occur about every 5 and 2 years over China,*** Tibetan Plateau,Northwest China and south of the Yangtze River are in greater risks suffering hot extremes(both day and night extremes).Changes in the occurrence probability of warm extremes are generally well explained by the combination of the shifts in location and scale parameters in areas with grown variability,i.e.,the Tibetan Plateau for TXx,south of the Yangtze River for both TXx and *** location(scale)parameter leading the risks of once-in-20-year TXx to increase by more than 5(0.25)and 3(0.75)times under 2℃ warming in the Tibetan Plateau and south of the Yangtze River,*** location parameter is more important for regions with decreased variability e.g.,the Tibetan Plateau for TNx,Northwest China for both TXx and TNx,with risks increase by more than 3,6 and 4 times due to changes in location.

关键词： 1.5℃and 2℃global warming Temperature extremes Risk ratios GEV CMIP5

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Decoding the nexus:branched-chain amino acids and their connection with sleep,circadian rhythms,and cardiometabolic health

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Neural Regeneration Research 2025年第5期20卷 1350-1363页

作者： Hui li laurent Seugnet Department of Neurology Xijing HospitalXi’anShaanxi ProvinceChina Centre de Recherche en Neurosciences de Lyon Integrated Physiology of the Brain Arousal Systems(WAKING)UniversitéClaude Bernard Lyon 1INSERM U1028CNRS UMR 5292BronFrance

The sleep-wake cycle stands as an integrative process essential for sustaining optimal brain function and,either directly or indirectly,overall body health,encompassing metabolic and cardiovascular *** the heightened metabolic activity of the brain,there exists a considerable demand for nutrients in comparison to other *** these,the branched-chain amino acids,comprising leucine,isoleucine,and valine,display distinctive significance,from their contribution to protein structure to their involvement in overall metabolism,especially in cerebral *** the first amino acids that are released into circulation post-food intake,branched-chain amino acids assume a pivotal role in the regulation of protein synthesis,modulating insulin secretion and the amino acid sensing pathway of target of ***-chain amino acids are key players in influencing the brain's uptake of monoamine precursors,competing for a shared *** their involvement in protein synthesis,these amino acids contribute to the metabolic cycles ofγ-aminobutyric acid and glutamate,as well as energy ***,they impact GABAergic neurons and the excitation/inhibition *** rhythmicity of branchedchain amino acids in plasma concentrations,observed over a 24-hour cycle and conserved in rodent models,is under circadian clock *** mechanisms underlying those rhythms and the physiological consequences of their disruption are not fully *** sleep,obesity,diabetes,and cardiovascular diseases can elevate branched-chain amino acid concentrations or modify their oscillatory *** mechanisms driving these effects are currently the focal point of ongoing research efforts,since normalizing branched-chain amino acid levels has the ability to alleviate the severity of these *** this context,the Drosophila model,though underutilized,holds promise in shedding new light on these *** findings indicate its po

关键词： branched-chain amino acids cardiovascular health circadian clock drosophila insulin metabolism sleep γ-aminobutyric acid

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