Additional risk in extreme precipitation in China from 1.5℃to 2.0℃global warming levels

作     者：Wei Li Zhihong Jiang Xuebin Zhang Laurent Li Ying Sun 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of EducationCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Climate Research DivisionEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaTorontoOntario M3H 5T4Canada Laboratoire de Meteorologie DynamiqueCNRSSorbonne UniversitesUPMC Universite Paris 06ParisFrance National Climate CenterLaboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeifing 100812China 

出 版 物：《Science Bulletin》 (科学通报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第63卷第4期

页      面：228-234页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant 2017YFA0603804) the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41230528) the China Scholarship Council(CSC)under the State Scholarship Fund supported by the French ANR Project China-Trend-Stream 

主　　题：1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warmingExtreme precipitationChina 

摘      要：To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 ℃ and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 ℃ above the pre-industrial level. As climate change risks may be region-dependent, changes in magnitude and probability of extreme precipitation over China are investigated under those two global warming levels based on simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Projects Phase 5. The focus is on the added changes due to the additional half a degree warming from 1.5 ℃ to 2 ℃ . Results show that regional average changes in the magnitude do not depend on the return periods with a relative increase around 7% and 11% at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, respectively. The additional half a degree global warming adds an additional increase in the magnitude by nearly 4%. The regional average changes in term of occurrence probabilities show dependence on the return periods, with rarer events(longer return periods) having larger increase of risk. For the 100-year historical event, the probability is projected to increase by a factor of 1.6 and 2.4 at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, *** projected changes in extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios.