Variation of Surface Temperature during the Last Millennium in a Simulation with the FGOALS-gl Climate System Model

作     者：张洁 Laurent LI 周天军 辛晓歌 

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/CNRS Université Paris 6 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2013年第30卷第3期

页      面：699-712页

核心收录：

学科分类：070903[理学-古生物学与地层学(含：古人类学)] 0709[理学-地质学] 07[理学] 

基　　金：supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(973 Program)under Grant No.2010CB951903 the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40890054,41205043,and 41105054 

主　　题：last millennium external forcing surface temperature cloud radiative forcing climate system model 

摘      要：A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-gl） developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）. The model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced during the wintertime at higher latitudes. This may be a manifestation of polar amplification associated with sea-ice-temperature positive feedback. The climate responses to total external forcings can explain about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period, especially at decadal timescales. Surface temperature in the Antarctic shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due to the strong internal variability. The model response to specified external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing （CRF）. The CRF acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by a decrease in cloud amount in the ant hropogenic- forcing-dominant period.