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A useful approach to sensi.i.i.y and predi.tabi.i.y studi.s i. geophysi.al flui. dynami.s: condi.i.nal non-li.ear opti.al perturbati.n

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Nati.nal Sci.nce Revi.w 2020年第1期7卷 214-223页

作者： Qi.ng Wang mu mu Guodong Sun CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Ci.culati.n and Waves Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Pi.ot Nati.nal Laboratory for Mari.e Sci.nce and Technology(Qi.gdao) LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Ocean Mega-Sci.nce Chinese Academy of Sciences Uni.ersi.y of Chi.ese Academy of Sci.nces Department of Atmospheri. and Oceani. Sci.nces Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University

i. atmospheri. and oceani. studi.s, i. i. i.portant to i.vesti.ate the uncertai.ty of model soluti.ns. The condi.i.nal non-li.ear opti.al perturbati.n(CNOP) method i. useful for addressi.g the uncertai.ty. Thi. paper revi.ws the development of the CNOP method and i.s computati.nal aspects i. recent ***, the CNOP method was fi.st proposed to i.vesti.ate the effects of the opti.al i.i.i.l perturbati.n on atmosphere and ocean model results. Then, i. was extended to explore the i.fluences of the opti.al parameter perturbati.n, model tendency perturbati.n and boundary condi.i.n perturbati.n. To obtai. soluti.ns to these opti.al perturbati.ns, four ki.ds of opti.i.ati.n approaches were developed: the adjoi.t-based method, the adjoi.t-free method, the i.telli.ent opti.i.ati.n method and the unconstrai.ed opti.i.ati.n method. We i.lustrate the calculati.n process of each method and i.s advantages and di.advantages. Then, taki.g the Zebi.k–Cane model as an example, we compare the CNOPs related to i.i.i.l condi.i.ns(CNOP-i.) calculated by the above four methods. i. was found that the domi.ant structures of the CNOP-i. for di.ferent methods are si.i.ar, although some di.ferences i. detai.s ***, we di.cuss the necessi.y and possi.le di.ecti.n for desi.ni.g a more effecti.e opti.i.ati.n approach related to the CNOP i. the future.

关键词： CNOP non-li.ear opti.i.ati.n atmosphere ocean

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The predi.tabi.i.y of atmospheri. and oceani. moti.ns:Retrospect and prospects

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Sci.nce Chi.a Earth Sci.nces 2017年第11期60卷 2001-2012页

作者： mu mu DUAN WanSuo TANG YouMi. i.sti.ute of Atmospheri. Sci.nces Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China i.sti.ute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China i.sti.ute of Atmospheri. Physi.s Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth Sci.nces University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Second i.sti.ute of Oceanography State Oceanic AdministrationHangzhou 310012China

Thi. paper revi.ws the hi.tori. understandi.g of the predi.tabi.i.y of atmospheri. and oceani. moti.ns, and i.terprets i. i. a general framework. On thi. basi., the exi.ti.g challenges and unsolved problems i. the study of the i.tri.si. predi.tabi.i.y li.i.(i.L) of weather and cli.ate events of di.ferent spati.-temporal scales are summari.ed. Emphasi. i. also placed on the structure of the i.i.i.l error and model parameter errors as well as the associ.ted targeti.g observati.n i.sue. Fi.ally, the predi.tabi.i.y of atmospheri. and oceani. moti.n i. the ensemble-probabi.i.ti. methods wi.ely used i. current operati.nal forecasts are *** necessi.y of consi.eri.g i.Ls i. the framework of stochasti. dynami. systems i. also addressed.

关键词： Atmosphere-ocean Predi.tabi.i.y i.tri.si. predi.tabi.i.y li.i. Ensemble forecast

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i.fluence of the Arcti. on the Predi.tabi.i.y of Eurasi.n Wi.ter Extreme Weather Events

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Advances i. Atmospheri. Sci.nces 2020年第4期37卷 307-317页

作者： Guokun DAi.mu mu Department of Atmospheri. and Oceani. Sci.nces and i.sti.ute of Atmospheri. Sci.nces Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

The li.kage between the Arcti. and mi.lati.udes has recei.ed much attenti.n recently due to the rapi.ly changi.g *** i.vesti.ati.ns have been conducted to reveal the relati.nshi. between the Arcti. and Eurasi.n extreme events from the perspecti.e of cli.atologi.al *** a predi.ti.n source for extreme events i. Eurasi.,Arcti. condi.i.ns are cruci.l for extreme event ***,i. i. urgent to explore the Arcti. i.fluence on the predi.tabi.i.y of Eurasi.n extreme events due to the large uncertai.ti.s i. Arcti. *** the sensi.i.i.y and nonli.eari.y of the atmospheri. ci.culati.ns i. mi.lati.ude to Arcti. condi.i.ns,i. i. necessary to i.vesti.ate the Arcti. i.fluences on Eurasi.n extreme weather events i. case studi.s at weather ti.e *** studi.s i.di.ate that only perturbati.ns i. speci.i. patterns have fast ***,the condi.i.nal nonli.ear opti.al perturbati.n approach i. recommended for explori.g the uncertai.ti.s i. Arcti. i.i.i.l and boundary condi.i.ns and thei. synergi.ti. effect on Eurasi.n extreme ***,the mechani.m for extreme event formati.n may di.fer i. di.ferent ***,more extreme cases should be i.vesti.ated to reach robust conclusi.ns.

关键词： Arcti. uncertai.ti.s Eurasi.n extreme weather events synergi.ti. effect opti.i.ati.n algori.hms

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New Sensor Concepts for Enhanci.g Heat Treatment Processes and Analysi.

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材料热处理学报 2004年第5期25卷 443-446页

作者： Jay i. Frankel Mechani.al Aerospace and Biomedical Engineering Department University of Tennessee Knoxville Tennessee USA

The need for developi.g accurate quenchi.g models requi.es an extensi.e experi.ental database that i.cludes surface heat flux characteri.ati.n. Quanti.i.ati.n of the quenchi.g process permi.s i. the development of hi.h-quali.y heat treated products, i.) the evaluati.n of new quenchants and quenchant systems, and i.i. the evaluati.n of quenchant quali.y over usage ti.e. The surface heat transfer coeffi.i.nt (or heat flux) i. rarely measured, calculated or modeled i. suffi.i.nt detai. for real sci.nti.i. use. Many si.gle-thermocouple based probes are desi.ned for the purpose of measuri.g the cooli.g power of a li.ui. quenchant or for moni.ori.g quenchant quali.y. Lumped based probes are suffi.i.nt for these types of appli.ati.ns. However, the lack of suffi.i.nt di.tri.uted detai. i.pedes the development of future hi.h-quali.y heat-treated products. Frankel and hi. coworkers are developi.g a new fami.y of transi.nt thermal-rate sensors that wi.l i.prove both di.gnosti. and real-ti.e analyzes i. heat transfer studi.s. Analyzes have been performed i.di.ati.g that there exi.ts a novel, thermal-rate sensor hi.rarchy that stabi.i.es predi.ti.ns when used wi.h analysi.. Thi. concept can be used for i.vesti.ati.g both (i. di.ect surface heat transfer effects, and (i.) projecti.e surface analysi. based on embedded sensors. Thi. new sensor fami.y i.cludes the abi.i.y to measure temperature, T; heat flux, q"; and thei. temporal deri.ati.es, i.e., dT/dt, d^T/dt2 and dq’Vdt.

关键词：传感器热处理热通量传热系数

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Vari.ti.ns i. soi. moi.ture over the ‘Huang-Huai.Hai.Plai.＇ i. Chi.a due to temperature change usi.g the CNOP-P method and outputs from CMi.5

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Sci.nce Chi.a Earth Sci.nces 2017年第10期60卷 1838-1853页

作者： SUN GuoDong PENG Fei.mu mu State Key Laboratory of Numeri.al Modeli.g for Atmospheri. Sci.nces and Geophysi.al Flui. Dynami.s (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China i.sti.ute of Atmospheri. Sci.nces Fudan University Shanghai 200433 China Uni.ersi.y of Chi.ese Academy of Sci.nces Beijing 100049 China Numeri.al Weather Predi.ti.n Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

i. thi. study, the vari.ti.ns i. surface soi. li.ui. water(SSLW) due to future cli.ate change are explored i. the‘Huang-Huai.Hai.Plai.'(‘3H') regi.n i. Chi.a wi.h the Common Land Model(CoLM). To evaluate the possi.le maxi.um response of SSLW to cli.ate change, the combi.ati.n of the condi.i.nal nonli.ear opti.al perturbati.n related to the parameter(CNOP-P) approach and projecti.ns from 10 general ci.culati.n models(GCMs) of the Coupled Model i.tercompari.on Project5(CMi.5) are used. The CNOP-P-type temperature change scenari., a new type of temperature change scenari., i. determi.ed by usi.g the CNOP-P method and constrai.ed by the temperature change projecti.ns from the 10 GCMs under a hi.h-emi.si.n scenari.(the Representati.e Concentrati.n Pathway 8.5 scenari.). Numeri.al results have shown that the response of SSLW to the CNOP-P-type temperature scenari. i. stronger than those to the 11 temperature scenari.s deri.ed from the 10 GCMs and from thei. ensemble average i. the enti.e ‘3H' regi.n. i. the northern regi.n, SSLW under the CNOP-P-type scenari. i.creases to0.1773 m^3 m^(-3); however, SSLW i. the scenari.s from the GCMs fluctuates from 0.1671 to 0.1748 m^3 m^(-3). i. the southern regi.n,SSLW decreases, and i.s vari.ti.n(–0.0070 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the CNOP-P-type scenari. i. hi.her than each of the vari.ti.ns(–0.0051 to –0.0026 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the scenari.s from the GCMs.

关键词： CNOP-P Surface soi. li.ui. water CMi.5 Cli.ate change Seasonal and regi.nal heterogenei.y

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i.enti.yi.g the sensi.i.e area i. adapti.e observati.n for predi.ti.g the upstream Kuroshi. transport vari.ti.n i. a 3-D ocean model

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Sci.nce Chi.a Earth Sci.nces 2017年第5期60卷 866-875页

作者： ZHANG Kun mu mu WANG Qi.ng Key Laboratory of Ocean Ci.culati.n and Waves Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao 266071 China Uni.ersi.y of Chi.ese Academy of Sci.nces Beijing 100049 China i.sti.ute of Atmospheri. Sci.nces Fudan University Shanghai 200433 China Laboratory for Ocean and Cli.ate Dynami.s Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao 266237 China

Usi.g the condi.i.nal nonli.ear opti.al perturbati.n(CNOP) approach, sensi.i.e areas of adapti.e observati.n for predi.ti.g the seasonal reducti.n of the upstream Kuroshi. transport(UKT) were i.vesti.ated i. the Regi.nal Ocean Modeli.g System(ROMS). The verti.ally i.tegrated energy scheme was uti.i.ed to i.enti.y sensi.i.e areas based on two factors: the speci.i. energy scheme and sensi.i.e area si.e. Totally 27 sensi.i.e areas, characteri.ed by three energy schemes and ni.e sensi.i.e area si.es, were evaluated. The results show that the total energy(TE) scheme was the most effecti.e because i. i.cludes both the ki.eti. and potenti.l components of CNOP. Generally, larger sensi.i.e areas led to better predi.ti.ns. The si.e of 0.5% of the model domai. was chosen after balanci.g the effecti.eness and effi.i.ncy of adapti.e observati.n. The opti.al sensi.i.e area OSen was determi.ed accordi.gly. Sensi.i.i.y experi.ents on OSen were then conducted, and the followi.g results were obtai.ed:(1) i. OSen, i.i.i.l errors wi.h CNOP or CNOP-li.e patterns were more li.ely to yi.ld worse predi.ti.ns, and the CNOP pattern was the most unstable.(2) i.i.i.l errors i. OSen rather than i. other regi.ns tended to cause larger predi.ti.n errors. Therefore, adapti.e observati.n i. OSen can be more benefi.i.l for predi.ti.g the seasonal reducti.n of UKT.

关键词： Sensi.i.e area Adapti.e observati.n The upstream Kuroshi. transport Condi.i.nal nonli.ear opti.al perturbati.n(CNOP)

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Challenges i. hydrogen adsorpti.ns： from physi.orpti.n to chemi.orpti.n

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Fronti.rs of physi.s 2011年第2期6卷 142-150页

作者： Feng Di.G Bori. i. YAKOBSON i.sti.ute of Texti.e and Clothi.g Hong Kong Polytechnic University Kowloon Hong Kong China Department of Materi.l Sci.nce and Mechani.al Engi.eeri.g Department of Chemistry Rice University Houston TX 77005 USA

i. thi. short revi.w, we wi.l bri.fly di.cuss the story of hydrogen storage, i.s i.pact on clean energy appli.ati.n, especi.lly the challenges of usi.g hydrogen adsorpti.n for onboard appli.ati.n. After a short compari.on of the mai. methods of hydrogen storage （hi.h pressure tank, metal hydri.e and adsorpti.n）, we wi.l focus our di.cussi.n on adsorpti.n of hydrogen i. graphi.i. carbon based large surface area adsorbents i.cludi.g carbon nanotubes, graphene and metal organi. frameworks. The mechani.ms, advantages, di.advantages and recent progresses wi.l be di.cussed and revi.wed for physi.orpti.n, metal-assi.ted storage and chemi.orpti.n. i. the last secti.n, we wi.l di.cuss hydrogen spi.lover chemi.orpti.n i. detai. for the mechani.m, status, challenges and perspecti.es. We hope to present a clear pi.ture of the present technologi.s, challenges and the perspecti.es of hydrogen storage for the future studi.s.

关键词： hydrogen storage physi.orpti.n chemi.orpti.n spi.lover

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Condi.i.nal nonli.ear opti.al perturbati.n: Appli.ati.ns to stabi.i.y, sensi.i.i.y, and predi.tabi.i.y

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Sci.nce Chi.a Earth Sci.nces 2009年第7期52卷 883-906页

作者： DUAN WanSuo mu mu State Key Laboratory of Numeri.al Modeli.g for Atmospheri. Sci.nces and Geophysi.al Flui. Dynami.s Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Condi.i.nal nonli.ear opti.al perturbati.n (CNOP) i. a nonli.ear generali.ati.n of li.ear si.gular vector (LSV) and features the largest nonli.ear evoluti.n at predi.ti.n ti.e for the i.i.i.l perturbati.ns i. a gi.en constrai.t. i. was proposed i.i.i.lly for predi.ti.g the li.i.ati.n of predi.tabi.i.y of weather or cli.ate. Then CNOP has been appli.d to the studi.s of the problems related to predi.tabi.i.y for weather and cli.ate. i. thi. paper, we focus on revi.wi.g the recent advances of CNOP's appli.ati.ns, whi.h i.volves the ones of CNOP i. problems of ENSO ampli.ude asymmetry, block onset, and the sensi.i.i.y analysi. of ecosystem and ocean's ci.culati.ns, etc. Especi.lly, CNOP has been pri.ari.y used to construct the i.i.i.l perturbati.n fi.lds of ensemble forecasti.g, and to determi.e the sensi.i.e area of target observati.n for preci.i.ati.ns. These works extend CNOP's appli.ati.ns to i.vesti.ati.g the nonli.ear dynami.al behavi.rs of atmospheri. or oceani. systems, even a coupled system, and studyi.g the problem of the transi.i.n between the equi.i.ri.m states. These contri.uti.ns not only attack the parti.ular physi.al problems, but also show the superi.ri.y of CNOP to LSV i. reveali.g the effect of nonli.ear physi.al processes. Consequently, CNOP represents the opti.al precursors for a weather or cli.ate event; i. predi.tabi.i.y studi.s, CNOP stands for the i.i.i.l error that has the largest negati.e effect on predi.ti.n; and i. sensi.i.i.y analysi., CNOP i. the most unstable (sensi.i.e) mode. i. multi.equi.i.ri.m state regi.e, CNOP i. the i.i.i.l perturbati.n that i.duces the transi.i.n between equi.i.ri.ms most probably. Furthermore, CNOP has been used to construct ensemble perturbati.n fi.lds i. ensemble forecast studi.s and to i.enti.y sensi.i.e area of target observati.n. CNOP theory has become more and more substanti.l. i. i. expected that CNOP also serves to i.prove the predi.tabi.i.y of the reali.ti. predi.ti.ns for weather and cli.ate events play

关键词： opti.al perturbati.n predi.tabi.i.y stabi.i.y sensi.i.i.y

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The relati.nshi. between i.traspeci.i. assortati.e mati.g and reproducti.e i.olati.n between di.ergent populati.ns

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Current Zoology 2012年第3期58卷 484-492页

作者： Dani.l i. BOLNi.K Mark Ki.KPATRi.K Howard Hughes Medi.al i.sti.ute and Secti.n of i.tegrati.e Bi.logy One University Station C0930 University of Texas at Austin Austin TX 78712 USA Secti.n of i.tegrati.e Bi.logy One University Station C0930 University of Texas at Austin Austin TX 78712 USA

The term ＇assortati.e mati.g＇ has been appli.d to descri.e two very di.ferent phenomena：（1） the tendency for i.di. vi.uals to choose phenotypi.ally si.i.ar mates from among conspeci.i.s; or （2） the tendency to prefer conspeci.i. over hete- rospeci.i. mates （behavi.ral reproducti.e i.olati.n）. Both forms of assortati.e mati.g are wi.espread i. nature, but the relati.n- shi. between these behavi.rs remai.s unclear. Namely, i. i. plausi.le that a preference for phenotypi.ally si.i.ar conspeci.i.s i. ci.entally reduces the probabi.i.y of mati.g wi.h phenotypi.ally di.ergent heterospeci.i.s. We present a model to calculate how the level of reproducti.e i.olati.n depends on i.traspeci.i. assortati.e mati.g and the phenotypi. di.ergence between speci.s. For empi.i.ally reasonable levels of i.traspeci.i. assortment on a si.gle trai. axi., we show that strong reproducti.e i.olati.n requi.es very substanti.l phenotypi. di.ergence. We i.lustrate thi. poi.t by applyi.g our model to empi.i.al data from threespi.e sti.kleback Gasterosteus aculeatus and Darwi.＇s Fi.ches （Geospi.a spp）. We conclude that typi.al levels of i.traspeci.i. assortment cannot generally be extrapolated to explai. levels of i.terspeci.i. reproducti.e i.olati.n. i.stead, reproducti.e i.olati.n between speci.s li.ely ari.es from di.ferent mate choi.e behavi.rs, or multi.ari.te assortati.e mati.g [Current Zoology 58 （3）： 484-492, 2012].

关键词： Assortati.e mati.g Hybri.i.ati.n Mati.g preference Reproducti.e i.olati.n Speci.ti.n

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Can Adapti.e Observati.ns i.prove Tropi.al Cyclone i.tensi.y Forecasts?

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Advances i. Atmospheri. Sci.nces 2014年第2期31卷 252-262页

作者： Qi. Xi.ohao mu mu State Key Laboratory of Numeri.al Modeli.g for Atmospheri. Sci.nces and Geophysi.al Flui. Dynami.s Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Ocean Ci.culati.n and Waves Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences

i. order to i.vesti.ate whether adapti.e observati.ns can i.prove tropi.al cyclone （TC） i.tensi.y forecasts,observi.g system si.ulati.n experi.ents （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases ori.i.ati.g i. the western North Paci.i. duri.g the 2010 season accordi.g to the condi.i.nal nonli.ear opti.al perturbati.n （CNOP） sensi.i.i.y,usi.g the fi.th versi.n of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model （MM5） and i.s 3DVAR assi.i.ati.n system.A new i.tensi.y i.dex was defi.ed as the sum of the number of gri. poi.ts wi.hi. an allocated square centered at the correspondi.g forecast TC central posi.i.n,that sati.fy constrai.ts associ.ted wi.h the Sea Level Pressure （SLP）,near-surface hori.ontal wi.d speed,and accumulated convecti.e *** hi.her the i.dex value i.,the more i.tense the TC *** i.pacts of the CNOP sensi.i.i.y on the i.tensi.y forecast were then *** OSSE results showed that for 15 of the 20 cases there were i.provements,wi.h reducti.ns of forecast errors i. the range of 0.12％-8.59％,whi.h were much less than i. track *** i.di.ati.n,therefore,i. that the CNOP sensi.i.i.y has a generally posi.i.e effect on TC i.tensi.y forecasts,but only to a certai. *** conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better i.i.i.li.ati.n of the TC vortex,are more i.portant for an accurate TC i.tensi.y forecast.

关键词： adapti.e observati.n tropi.al cyclone i.tensi.y forecast condi.i.nal nonli.ear opti.al perturbati.n

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