The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions:Retrospect and prospects

作     者：MU Mu DUAN WanSuo TANG YouMin 

作者机构：Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth SciencesUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Second Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic AdministrationHangzhou 310012China 

出 版 物：《Science China Earth Sciences》 (中国科学（地球科学英文版）)

年 卷 期：2017年第60卷第11期

页      面：2001-2012页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0707[理学-海洋科学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41230420 41376018&41606012) 

主　　题：Atmosphere-ocean Predictability Intrinsic predictability limit Ensemble forecast 

摘      要：This paper reviews the historic understanding of the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions, and interprets it in a general framework. On this basis, the existing challenges and unsolved problems in the study of the intrinsic predictability limit(IPL) of weather and climate events of different spatio-temporal scales are summarized. Emphasis is also placed on the structure of the initial error and model parameter errors as well as the associated targeting observation issue. Finally, the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motion in the ensemble-probabilistic methods widely used in current operational forecasts are *** necessity of considering IPLs in the framework of stochastic dynamic systems is also addressed.