Influence of the Arctic on the Predictability of Eurasian Winter Extreme Weather Events

作     者：Guokun DAI Mu MU Guokun DAI;Mu MU

作者机构：Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第37卷第4期

页      面：307-317页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41790475) 

主　　题：Arctic uncertainties Eurasian extreme weather events synergistic effect optimization algorithms 

摘      要：The linkage between the Arctic and midlatitudes has received much attention recently due to the rapidly changing *** investigations have been conducted to reveal the relationship between the Arctic and Eurasian extreme events from the perspective of climatological *** a prediction source for extreme events in Eurasia,Arctic conditions are crucial for extreme event ***,it is urgent to explore the Arctic influence on the predictability of Eurasian extreme events due to the large uncertainties in Arctic *** the sensitivity and nonlinearity of the atmospheric circulations in midlatitude to Arctic conditions,it is necessary to investigate the Arctic influences on Eurasian extreme weather events in case studies at weather time *** studies indicate that only perturbations in specific patterns have fast ***,the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is recommended for exploring the uncertainties in Arctic initial and boundary conditions and their synergistic effect on Eurasian extreme ***,the mechanism for extreme event formation may differ in different ***,more extreme cases should be investigated to reach robust conclusions.