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The effect of the infection within the individual host on its propagation in the population

Infectious Disease Modelling 2018年第1期3卷 345-361页

作者： Franciane Azevedo Marcos Amaku francisco antonio bezerra coutinho Luis Fernandez Lopez Eduardo Massad Faculdade de Engenharia da Computaçaoe Engenharia Eletrica Universidade Federal do Sul e Sudeste do ParaMarabaPABrazil Faculdade de Medicina Universidade de Sao Pauloe LIM01-HCFMUSPAv.Dr.Arnaldo 455Sao PauloSP01246-903Brazil Faculdade de Medicina Veterinariae Zootecnia Universidade de Sao PauloSao PauloSP05508-270Brazil London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine LondonUK Escola de Matematica Aplicada Fundaçao Getúlio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil College of Natural and Life Sciences The University of DerbyDerbyUK

We consider nested or multiscale models to study the effect of the temporal evolution of the disease within the host in the population dynamics of the disease,for one and two infectious *** assumed a coupling between the within-host infection rate and the between-host transmission *** age of infection within each individual in a population affects the probability of transmission of the disease to a susceptible host and this will affect the temporal evolution of the disease in the host *** analyze the infection within the host,we consider bacterial-like and viral-like *** the model for two infectious agents,we found that,when strain 2 has a basic reproduction number R02 greater than the basic reproduction number R01 of strain 1,strain 2 replaces strain 1 in the ***,if R02>R01 but the values are closer,the replacement does not occur immediately and both strains can coexist for a long *** applied the model to a scenario in which patients infected with the hepatitis C virus(HCV)are cleared of HCV when super-infected with the hepatitis A virus(HAV).We compared the time for the replacement of HCV by HAV in the population considering instantaneous and noninstantaneous replacement within the *** model developed can be generalized for more than two infectious agents.

关键词： Nested model Multiscale model Within-host infection Between-host transmission Infectious disease

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Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第4期2卷 441-454页

作者： Eduardo Massad Marcos Amaku francisco antonio bezerra coutinho Claudio JoséStruchiner Luis Fernandez Lopez Annelies Wilder-Smith Marcelo Nascimento Burattini School of Medicine University of Sao PauloBrazil London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine UK College of Life and Natural Sciences The University of DerbyUK Programme of Scientific Computation Fundação Oswaldo CruzRio de JaneiroBrazil Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute St Michael's HospitalTorontoCanada Institute of Public Health University of HeidelbergGermany Department Public Health and Clinical Medicine Epidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185 UmeåSweden Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine Nanyang Technological UniversitySingapore Hospital São Paulo Escola Paulista de MedicinaUniversidade Federal de São PauloSão PauloSPBrazil

In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by *** method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections,from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived *** derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes'densities,the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes'*** method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.

关键词： Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes'densities Dengue Zika virus Yellow fever

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Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 46-55页

作者： Marcos Amaku Dimas Tadeu Covas francisco antonio bezerra coutinho Raymundo Soares Azevedo Neto Claudio Struchiner Annelies Wilder-Smith Eduardo Massad School of Medicine University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSPSao PauloBrazil Instituto Butantan Sao PauloBrazil School of Applied Mathematics Fundacao Getulio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil School of Veterinary Medicine University of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil Department Public Health and Clinical Heidelberg Institute of Global HealthUniversity of HeidelbergGermany Medicine Epidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185UmeåSweden Department of Disease Control London School of Hygiene and TropicalMedicineUK

Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of *** this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-andquarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo,*** State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy,reaching at most 59%in late March and started to relax the measures in late June,dropping to 41%in 08 ***,São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the *** alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were *** strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State,reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD,that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%.The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts e this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%.The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st,it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90%at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Testing Cost-analysis Modelling

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Analysing vaccine efficacy evaluated in phase 3 clinical trials carried out during outbreaks

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第4期9卷 1027-1044页

作者： francisco antonio bezerra coutinho Marcos Amaku Fernanda Castro Boulos Jose Alfredo de Sousa Moreira Joao Italo DiasFranca Julio antonio do Amaral Eliana Nogueira Castro de Barros Claudio Jose Struchiner Esper Jorge Kallas Eduardo Massad School of Medicine University of Sao PauloBrazil Instituto Butantan Sao PauloBrazil School of Applied Mathematics Fundacao Getulio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil

In this paper we examine several definitions of vaccine efficacy(VE)that we found in the literature,for diseases that express themselves in outbreaks,that is,when the force of infection grows in time,reaches a maximum and then *** fact that the disease occurs in outbreaks results in several problems that we *** propose a mathematical model that allows the calculation of VE for several *** trials usually needs a large number of volunteers that must be ***,all volunteers should be enrolled in approximately the same time,but this is generally impossible for logistic reasons and they are enrolled in a fashion that can be replaced by a continuous density function(for example,a Gaussian function).The outbreak can also be replaced by a continuous density function,and the use of these density functions simplifies the ***,for example Gaussian functions,one of the problems one can immediately notice is that the peak of the two curves do not occur at the same *** model allows us to conclude:First,the calculated vaccine efficacy decreases when the force of infection increases;Second,the calculated vaccine efficacy decreases when the gap between the peak in the force of infection and the peak in the enrollment rate increases;Third,different trial protocols can be simulated with this model;different vaccine efficacy definitions can be calculated and in our simulations,all result are approximately the *** final,and perhaps most important conclusion of our model,is that vaccine efficacy calculated during outbreaks must be carefully examined and the best way we can suggest to overcome this problem is to stratify the enrolled volunteer's in a cohort-by-cohort basis and do the survival analysis for each cohort,or apply the Cox proportional hazards model for each cohort.

关键词： Vaccine efficacy Clinical trials Mathematical models Simulations Covid-19

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A SHORT NOTE ABOUT EXPOSED POINTS IN REAL BANACH SPACES

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Acta Mathematica Scientia 2008年第4期28卷 797-800页

作者： antonio Aizpuru francisco J Garcia-Pacheco Departamento de Matemá ticas Universidad de Cá diz Department of Mathematical Sciences Kent State University

We express the set of exposed points in terms of rotund points and non-smooth *** long as we have Banach spaces each time＂bigger＂,we consider sets of non-smooth points each time＂smaller＂.

关键词： Exposed point exposed face rotund point smooth point

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Central depressant effects of Piper tuberculatum Jacq essential oil in mice

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Food Bioscience 2022年第4期48卷 620-629页

作者： Valterlúcio dos Santos Sales francisco Romero Cabral Emmily Petícia do Nascimento Sales Tatyelle bezerra Carvalho Maria Haiele Nogueira Costa Victor Afonso Pereira de Oliveira Cristina Kelly de Souza Rodrigues francisco Rodolpho Sobreira Dantas Nobrega de Figueiredo Daniel Souza bezerra Gyllyandeson de Araújo Delmondes Henrique Douglas Melo coutinho Jose Galberto Martins da Costa Irwin Rose Alencar de Menezes Cícero francisco bezerra Felipe Marta Regina Kerntopf Universidade Regional do Cariri Departamento de Química Biol´ogicaCratoCear´aBrazil Universidade Federal de S˜ao Paulo-Departamento de Fisiologia S˜ao PauloSPBrazil Faculdade de Ciˆencias M´edicas da Santa Casa de S˜ao Paulo S˜ao PauloSPBrazil Universidade Federal da Paraíba Departamento de Biologia MolecularJo˜ao PessoaParaíbaBrazil

This study aims to investigate the toxicity and possible effects and mechanism of action of the essential oil obtained from the Piper tuberculatum Jacq.‘s fruit(EOPT)on the central nervous system(CNS)of *** the Hippocratic test,it was observed ambulation reduction,sedation,piloerection and mortality of 25%at the dose of 1000 mg/kg and 50%at the dose of 5000 mg/*** results found demonstrate that the EOPT is endowed with a possible depressant effect,and is characterized by a likely sedative(open field test),anxiolytic-like(elevated plus maze test),anticonvulsant(pentylenetetrazole-induced seizure test)and hypnotic action(pentobarbital-induced sleeping time).These effects may possibly occur due to the interaction between the monoterpenes,present in its essential oil,and the GABAergic pathway confirmed by reversion of the effects by ***,these results demonstrate the therapeutic potential and the validation of the ethnopharmacological use of this species in the treatment of disorders affecting the central nervous system.

关键词： Piper tuberculatum Jacq. Essential oil Sedative Anxiolytic Hypnotic

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Multi-camera systems for rehabilitation therapies:a study of the precision of Microsoft Kinect sensors

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Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering 2016年第4期17卷 348-364页

作者： Miguel OLIVER francisco MONTERO Jose Pascual MOLINA Pascual GONZALEZ antonio FERNANDEZ-CABALLERO Instituto de Investigacidn en Informdtica de Albacete Universidad de Castilla-La ManchaAlbacete 02071Spain Departamento de Sistemas Informaticos Universidad de Castilla-La ManchaAlbacete 02071Spain

This paper seeks to determine how the overlap of several infrared beams affects the tracked position of the user, depending on the angle of incidence of light, distance to the target, distance between sensors, and the number of capture devices used. We also try to show that under ideal conditions using several Kinect sensors increases the precision of the data collected. The results obtained can be used in the design of telerehabilitation environments in which several RGB-D cameras are needed to improve precision or increase the tracking range. A numerical analysis of the results is included and comparisons are made with the results of other studies. Finally, we describe a system that implements intelligent methods for the rehabilitation of patients based on the results of the tests carried out.

关键词： Kinect sensor Rehabilitation system Capture precision Multi-camera system

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A numerical assessment of two geometries for reducing elbow erosion

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Particuology 2020年第2期18卷 117-133页

作者： Carlos antonio Ribeiro Duarte francisco Joséde Souza Diego Nei Venturi Martin Sommerfeld Department of Engineering Federal University of Goiás-Regional Catal(a)oAv.Dr.Lamartine Pinto de Avelar1120Catal(a)oGoiásBrazil School of Mechanical Engineering Federal University of Uberl(a)ndiaAv.Joāo Naves de(A)vila2121 Bloco 5PUberl(a)ndiaMinas GeraisBrazil Multiphase Flow Systems(MPS) Otto-von-Guericke-University MagdeburgZeppelinstraβe 1D-06130 Halle(Saale)Germany

Elbows in pneumatic conveying systems are normally prone to the erosive effects of conveyed *** are a number of solutions available to reduce such damage.A widely used geometric alternative for replacing the 90°elbow and reducing erosive wear is the plugged *** option,although less commonly used,is the vortex-chamber *** both cases,the effective reduction in erosion brought about is unclear,as it strongly depends on the operating *** present study assesses relative erosion among the plugged tee,vortex-chamber elbow,and standard elbow for a dilute gas-solid multiphase flow.A numerical model is employed to predict the penetration ratio and validated using experimental data for the plugged *** are run for the standard and vortex-chamber elbows and plugged tee under the same conditions to compare the mechanics involved and the relative erosion *** analysis uses variables relating to particle-wall interactions(impact angle,impact velocity,impact frequency)to illustrate the nature of the erosive process in each pipe *** general,the geometric configurations of both the plugged tee and vortex-chamber elbow promote changes in particle dynamics that reduce the rate of *** the basis of the relative erosion of the standard elbow,the plugged tee proves to be an interesting option in cases of a low mass loading,while the vortex-chamber elbow demonstrates its erosion reduction potential for higher mass loading ***,the advantages and disadvantages of each fitting are highlighted.

关键词： Relative erosion Plugged tee Erosion reduction Pipe fitting Computational fluid dynamics

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Multi-objective optimization design of bridge piers with hybrid heuristic algorithms

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Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering) 2012年第6期13卷 420-432页

作者： francisco J. MARTINEZ-MARTIN Fernando GONZALEZ-VIDOSA antonio HOSPITALER Víctor YEPES Department of Geotechnical Engineering Universitat Politècnica de València 46022 Valencia Spain Department of Construction Engineering ICITECH Universitat Politècnica de València 46022 Valencia Spain

This paper describes one approach to the design of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge piers, using a three-hybrid multi- objective simulated annealing (SA) algorithm with a neighborhood move based on the mutation operator from the genetic algorithms (GAs), namely MOSAMO1, MOSAMO2 and MOSAMO3. The procedure is applied to three objective functions: the economic cost, the reinforcing steel congestion and the embedded CO 2 emissions. Additional results for a random walk and a descent local search multi-objective algorithm are presented. The evaluation of solutions follows the Spanish Code for structural concrete. The methodology was applied to a typical bridge pier of 23.97 m in height. This example involved 110 design variables. Results indicate that algorithm MOSAMO2 outperforms other algorithms regarding the definition of Pareto fronts. Further, the proposed procedure will help structural engineers to enhance their bridge pier designs.

关键词： Bridge piers Concrete structures Multi-objective optimization Simulated annealing (SA) Structural design

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COVID-19 and Indirect Liver Injury:A Narrative Synthesis of the Evidence

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Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology 2021年第5期9卷 760-768页

作者： francisco Idalsoaga Gustavo Ayares Juan Pablo Arab Luis antonio Díaz Departamento de Gastroenterología Escuela de MedicinaPontificia Universidad Católica de ChileSantiagoChile Centro de Envejecimiento y Regeneración(CARE) Facultad de Ciencias BiológicasPontificia Universidad Católica de ChileSantiagoChile

The liver is frequently affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)*** most common manifestations are mildly elevated alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase,with a prevalence of 16-53%among *** with severe coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)seem to have higher rates of acute liver dysfunction,and the presence of abnormal liver tests at admission signifies a higher risk of severe disease during *** with chronic liver diseases also have a higher risk of severe disease and mortality(mainly seen in patients with metabolic-associated fatty liver disease).Several pathways of damage have been proposed in the liver involvement of COVID-19 patients;although,the end-cause is most likely *** liver tests have been attributed to the expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors in SARS-CoV-2 *** enzyme is expressed widely in cholangiocytes and less in *** factors attributed to liver damage include drug-induced liver injury,uncontrolled release of proinflammatory molecules(“cytokine storm”),pneumonia-associated hypoxia,and direct damage by the *** steatosis,vascular thrombosis,fibrosis,and inflammatory features(including Kupffer cell hyperplasia)are the most common liver histopathological findings in deceased COVID-19 patients,suggesting important indirect mechanisms of liver *** this translational medicinebased narrative review,we summarize the current data on the possible indirect mechanisms involved in liver damage due to COVID-19,the histopathological findings,and the impact of these mechanisms in patients with chronic liver disease.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Liver hepatitis Liver injury Novel coronavirus

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