Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

作     者：Marcos Amaku Dimas Tadeu Covas Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho Raymundo Soares Azevedo Neto Claudio Struchiner Annelies Wilder-Smith Eduardo Massad 

作者机构：School of MedicineUniversity of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSPSao PauloBrazil Instituto ButantanSao PauloBrazil School of Applied MathematicsFundacao Getulio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil School of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil Department Public Health and ClinicalHeidelberg Institute of Global HealthUniversity of HeidelbergGermany MedicineEpidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185UmeåSweden Department of Disease ControlLondon School of Hygiene and TropicalMedicineUK 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期

页      面：46-55页

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This work was partially supported by the project ZikaPLAN,funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No.734584 LIM01-HFMUSP,CNPq and FAPESP and Fundacao Butantan 

主　　题：COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Testing Cost-analysis Modelling 

摘      要：Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of *** this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-andquarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo,*** State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy,reaching at most 59%in late March and started to relax the measures in late June,dropping to 41%in 08 ***,São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the *** alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were *** strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State,reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD,that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%.The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts e this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%.The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st,it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90%at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.