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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2015年第3期8卷 127-133页

作者： fu yuan-hai Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The intensity of summer precipitation interannual variability is strongest over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley(MLYRV). The variability is larger than 1.5 mm d–1 and up to 35%–40% of the climatological mean summer precipitation. The relationship between the interdecadal change in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability over this area is investigated, by analyzing five gauged and re-constructed precipitation datasets. The relationship is found to be very weak over the MLYRV, with a correlation coefficient of only approximately 0.10. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation influences the western North Pacific subtropical high, which is responsible for the interdecadal change in summer precipitation over the MLYRV. However, the precipitation interannual variability is closely related to the ENSO events in the preceding winter due to its impact on the meridional displacement of the East Asian westerly jet. Different physical mechanisms cause different interdecadal variation in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability, and thus result in a poor relationship.

关键词： interdecadal variation interannual variability summer precipitation

Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ global warming targets

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第2期9卷 112-119页

作者： fu yuan-hai LU Ri-Yu GUO Dong Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

This study investigated the projected changes in the annual mean surface air temperature （SAT） over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ targets, by analyzing the outputs from 22 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, the scope of changes in the average SAT over China is quite narrow and has the largest probability to increase by 1.7-2.0 ℃ under the various RCP pathways, although the time of occurrence of the 1.5 ℃ target has a large spread of 40-60 years. Similarly, the models consistently show that the average SAT over China would most likely increase by 2.4-2.7 ℃ under the 2.0 ℃ target. furthermore, the warming shows a clear spatial distinction over China： being stronger in the northwest part and weaker in the southeast part. Under all RCP pathways, the SAT over the northwest part would increase by 1.9-2.1 ℃ for the 1.5℃ target, which is much stronger than the SAT increase over the southeast part （1.3-1.5 ℃）. A similar spatial pattern appears for the 2.0 ℃ target.

关键词： Temperature Warming 1.5 ℃ target 2.0 ℃ target China

Projection of the summer northern East Asian low under global warming in CMIP5 models

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第5期10卷 397-402页

作者： LIN Zhong-Da fu yuan-hai State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Climate Change Research Center (CCRC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy ofSciences Beijing China

The East Asian summer climate is modulated by a low-pressure system over northern East Asia（NEAL） and a subtropical high over the western North Pacific. Many studies have focused on the subtropical high, but little is known about NEAL, especially its change in the future under global warming scenarios. This study investigates the projected change in NEAL in the late twenty-first century, using the outputs of 20 models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project — specifically, their historical climate simulations（HIST） and future climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5（RCP4.5） and 8.5（RCP8.5） scenarios. The results show that the models capture the NEAL well in HIST. The NEAL is weakened in the late twenty-first century under the two RCP scenarios, with a stronger weakening under RCP8.5 than under *** weakened NEAL increases the geopotential height zonal gradient in the west and causes a southerly anomaly, which may bring more moisture and rainfall to northern East Asia.

关键词： Northern East Asian low East Asian summer monsoon global warming CMIP5 projection

Climate change projection over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第3期12卷 313-321页

作者： fu yuan-hai GAO Xue-Jie ZHU Ying-Mo GUO Dong Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming650504China

Tibetan Plateau(TP,with the height>3000 m)is a region with complex topographical features and a large diversity of climate both in space and *** use of higher resolution regional climate models(RCMs)to downscale global climate model simulations is of high *** the present study,future climate change over TP and the surrounding areas is investigated based on the ensemble of a set of the 21st century climate change projections using the RCM *** model is driven by five different GCMs at a grid spacing of 25 km under *** focus is on the December—January-February(DJF),June-July-August(JJA),and annual mean temperature and precipitation,with comparisons against the driving GCMs also ***,the RegCM4 greatly improves the simulation by providing finer scale spatial details of both temperature and precipitation distributions over the *** topographic effects are well reproduced by RegCM4 but not the *** the projected future changes,general wanning and increase in precipitation are found in both GCM and RegCM4 ***,substantial differences exist in both the spatial distribution and magnitude of the *** added value of RegCM4 for temperature,in addition to the finer spatial details,is characterized by a more pronounced warming in DJF over TP compared to its surrounding *** projected changes of precipitation show also differences between RegCM4 and the driving *** increase of precipitation is more pronounced and over the basins in DJF for RegCM4,and in general with a better agreement across the simulations compared to the driving GCMs.

关键词： Climate change Regional climate model Tibetan plateau

Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 ℃ global warming target

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第2期9卷 102-111页

作者： WANG Tao MIAO Jia-Peng SUN Jian-Qi fu yuan-hai Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 ℃ global warming （1.5 GW） target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 （CMIP5） are examined. Compared with the current summer climate （1975-2005）, both surface air temperature and precipitation increase significantly over the East Asian continent during the 1.5 GW period （average period 2021-2051）. In northeastern China this is particularly pronounced with regional averaged precipitation increases of more than 7.2%, which is greater than that for the whole East Asian continent （approximately 4.2%）. Due to stronger enhancement of precipitation north of 40°N, the leading empirical orthogonal function （EOF） mode of summer precipitation over the East Asian continent changes from tripolar-like mode to dipole mode. As there is stronger surface warming over the East Asian continent than that over surrounding ocean, the land-sea thermal contrast is enhanced during the 1.5 GW period. As a result, the monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere is significantly strengthened, which causes the increased summer precipitation over the East Asian continent. In addition, larger interannual variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon circulation and associated precipitation are also suggested for the 1.5 GW period.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon Precipitation 1.5 ℃ global warming target CMIP5

Mid-summer surface air temperature and its internal variability over China at 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2020年第3期11卷 185-197页

作者： YIN Shu-Yue WANG Tao HUA Wei MIAO Jia-Peng GAO Yong-Qi fu yuan-hai Daniela MATEI Evangelos TYRLIS CHEN Dong Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu610225China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bjerknes Center for Climate ResearchBergen5006Norway Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg20146Germany

Recently,extremely hot summers occurred frequently across China,and the mean mid-summer surface air temperature(SAT)continuously broke the records of the past decades,causing huge social and economic *** global warming accelerates,these extremely hot summers will undoubtedly occur more ***,the issue of what will happen to the mid-summer SAT over China in the near future remains ***,we investigate the changes of mid-summer SAT and related internal variabilities over China at 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming above preindustrial level by using the MPI-ESM Grand Ensemble *** results indicate that compared to the present-day(1986–2005),national averaged mid-summer SAT will increase by 1.1℃ and 2.0℃,in 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming scenarios *** means that the mid-summer SAT is projected to increase by 0.9℃ due to an additional 0.5℃ global warming,which is higher than the annual value(0.8℃)and almost two times the global warming ***,in the two warming targets,the increase in mid-summer SAT will be more enhanced over the northwestern part of *** addition,the extremely high monthly SAT would increase nationwide due to an additional 0.5℃ in global *** all areas,the Qinghai and Xinjiang provinces would experience the strongest increase in extremely high monthly *** is important to find that,from 1.5℃ to 2℃ global warming,changes of the internal variability of the mid-summer SAT differs across *** would decrease over some parts of western Northwest China,North China,Northeast China and the Tibetan ***,it would significantly increase over Qinghai,Sichuan,and northern parts of Inner *** a result,at 2℃ global warming,the increase of extreme SAT in Qinghai is caused by the synergistic effect of stronger warming rate and larger internal ***,the increase in Xinjiang province is mainly caused by the stronger local *** analysis suggests that we can effect

关键词： Mid-summer SAT Internal variability China 1.5℃global warming 2℃global warming

Comparison of methods of purification and identification of Verticillium dahliae toxins

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Journal of Life Sciences 2007年第1期1卷 67-72,81页

作者： JIA Zhi-qi SHI fu-mei yuan hai-yong HOU Yan-yan LI Ying-zhang State Key Laboratory of Plant Physiology and Biochemistry College of Biological Sciences China Agricultural University Beijing 100094 China

The complexes excreted by VerticiUium dahliae are phytotoxins, which are responsible for most of the symptoms associated with Verticillium wilt disease. Verticillium dahliae toxins （VD-toxins） can be purified by different methods. In the present study, we reported a simpler, more effective method to purify VD-toxins. The supematant of V. dahliae culture was frozen, lyophilized and dialyzed by 1 kDa Dialysis Membranes （MWCO）. We also partially identified the characteristics of the purified VD-toxins. The results showed that the components of VD-toxins include glycoprotein within 35.8-83.2 kDa. The phytotoxic activity of VD-toxins was remained after VD-toxins were pretreated by high temperature, Concanavalin-A, and proteinase E, respectively. These data suggest that VD-toxins are heat-stable, and the protein fraction and glycosyl are both important contributors to the phytotoxic activity. VD-toxins purified effectively from the culture filtrates of V. dahliae may help in further understanding the mechanisms of interactions between V. dahliae and plants.

关键词： glycoprotein phytotoxicity purification Verticillium dahliae toxins

科技自立自强与制造业全球价值链高端:嵌入机制与路径

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经济学家 2023年第8期 65-75页

作者：孔静傅元海广州大学经济与统计学院

新发展格局下,以科技自立自强推动我国制造业高端嵌入全球价值链,是实现经济高质量发展的本质要求。本文基于我国制造业在全球价值链的地位现状,揭示科技自立自强推动我国制造业高端嵌入全球价值链的机制:依托国内大循环,突破关键核心... 详细信息

新发展格局下,以科技自立自强推动我国制造业高端嵌入全球价值链,是实现经济高质量发展的本质要求。本文基于我国制造业在全球价值链的地位现状,揭示科技自立自强推动我国制造业高端嵌入全球价值链的机制:依托国内大循环,突破关键核心技术、突破引领性原创性技术、实现数字技术自立自强和加快科技成果产业化;依托国内国际双循环,提升科技创新国际竞争力、提升国际科技合作水平、融入全球创新链、数字技术赋能提升全球价值链整体效能,促进科技自立自强,推动高端嵌入全球价值链。从吸引全球高级创新要素、强化基础研究突破原创性引领性技术、实现产业链创新链融合发展、加快构建新发展格局和数字技术赋能等方面,阐述科技自立自强推动我国制造业高端嵌入全球价值链的路径。

关键词：新发展格局科技自立自强制造业高端嵌入GVC

构建自主可控现代制造业体系面临的挑战、路径与对策

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当代财经 2023年第8期 3-16页

作者：王霞傅元海广州大学经济与统计学院广东广州510006

自主可控的现代制造业体系是构建新发展格局和现代经济体系的关键,也是实现经济高质量发展和塑造国际竞争新优势的内在选择。在重新界定自主可控现代制造业体系的概念与特征的基础上,基于统计数据对中国现代制造业体系自主可控水平的测... 详细信息

自主可控的现代制造业体系是构建新发展格局和现代经济体系的关键,也是实现经济高质量发展和塑造国际竞争新优势的内在选择。在重新界定自主可控现代制造业体系的概念与特征的基础上,基于统计数据对中国现代制造业体系自主可控水平的测度和分析结果表明:第一,相较于部分发达国家,中国在全球分工中主要从事加工组装环节,导致制造业整体技术自主水平较低;第二,中国劳动密集型行业的自主可控水平较高,产业链供应链相对安全;第三,高技术密集型行业和部分资源密集型行业对外依存度较高,存在关键核心技术“卡脖子”、产业链供应链断链的风险;第四,中国构建自主可控的现代制造业体系面临着低成本优势丧失、创新尚未成为产业发展的新动能、国际力量对比变化、大国竞争、逆全球化、新冠病毒感染疫情及新一代信息技术革命等内部和外部双重因素叠加带来的严峻挑战。在新发展阶段,中国构建自主可控现代制造业体系的实践路径应以科技自主为核心、安全可控为关键、数字化转型为抓手。

关键词：现代制造业体系自主可控关键核心技术产业链供应链

数字化转型改善资源配置的理论逻辑与路径选择

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经济学家 2024年第9期 74-86页

作者：傅元海熊豪广州大学经济与统计学院

数字经济时代,数字化转型正深刻改变资源配置格局,推动资源配置从局部调整向全局优化迈进。本文在厘清数字化转型内涵及数字化视角下资源配置特征演变的基础上,揭示数字化转型改善资源配置的理论逻辑:在数字技术加持下,以数据成为关键... 详细信息

数字经济时代,数字化转型正深刻改变资源配置格局,推动资源配置从局部调整向全局优化迈进。本文在厘清数字化转型内涵及数字化视角下资源配置特征演变的基础上,揭示数字化转型改善资源配置的理论逻辑:在数字技术加持下,以数据成为关键生产要素为逻辑起点,数字化转型实现对生产资源的全感知、全联接,并依托数据要素通过转换倍增、融合互补、集约替代、复用增效赋能传统要素,提高传统要素配置效率;数字化转型推动要素数字化、重塑组织结构与分工模式、催生“平台+企业”新型竞争模式,促进资源高效流动;数字化转型驱动资源配置突破微观企业边界和宏观时空限制,拓宽资源配置范围;数字化转型依托大模型实现供需适配,提高信息可获得性,缓解配置扭曲。最后,从新型基础设施建设、数字关键技术创新、数据标准的形成与数据的有效治理等方面阐述数字化转型改善资源配置的路径。

关键词：数字化转型资源配置数字技术数据要素