Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 ℃ global warming target

作     者：WANG Tao MIAO Jia-Peng SUN Jian-Qi FU Yuan-Hai 

作者机构：Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第9卷第2期

页      面：102-111页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 120203[管理学-旅游管理] 1202[管理学-工商管理] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0603802)  the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41661144005 and 41320104007)  and the CAS-PKU Joint Research Program. We would like to thanks the IPCC for providing the CMIP5 datasets (http://www.ipccdata.org/sim/gcm_monthly/AR5/Reference-Archive.html) 

主　　题：East Asian summer monsoon Precipitation 1.5 ℃ global warming target CMIP5 

摘      要：In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 ℃ global warming （1.5 GW） target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 （CMIP5） are examined. Compared with the current summer climate （1975-2005）, both surface air temperature and precipitation increase significantly over the East Asian continent during the 1.5 GW period （average period 2021-2051）. In northeastern China this is particularly pronounced with regional averaged precipitation increases of more than 7.2%, which is greater than that for the whole East Asian continent （approximately 4.2%）. Due to stronger enhancement of precipitation north of 40°N, the leading empirical orthogonal function （EOF） mode of summer precipitation over the East Asian continent changes from tripolar-like mode to dipole mode. As there is stronger surface warming over the East Asian continent than that over surrounding ocean, the land-sea thermal contrast is enhanced during the 1.5 GW period. As a result, the monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere is significantly strengthened, which causes the increased summer precipitation over the East Asian continent. In addition, larger interannual variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon circulation and associated precipitation are also suggested for the 1.5 GW period.