SOME ASPECTS OF OBJECTIVE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

作     者：钟元 

出 版 物：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 (热带气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：1997年第3卷第2期

页      面：208-214页

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

主　　题：tropical cyclone motion objective forecast 

摘      要：As shown in a statistical analysis of the relationship between environmental fields at varied timeand tropical cyclone motion, the forecasting ability of the initisl environmental field predictors for tropical cyclone motion decreases with the increase of valid time period of forecast;it is higher with these predictors at a fUture time than at an initial time. The work also indicates that for the tropical cyclone motion over a given period of valid forecast, better predictors appear at times mostly differing from thevalid periods; for periods at 48-120 h the environmental predictors at 48-72 h are m0re capable of forecasting. With statistical interpretation of NWP products, a predictive model for tropical cyclone motionis superior in performance over a statistical forecasting model that employes predictors of the initial field in the basic framework. The concluding remarks can be used as reference in the construction of an objective prediction model for tropical cyclone motion.