Is China's Economy Overestimated?——Counter-Evidence from the Underground Economy

作     者：Wang Yongxing 王永兴

作者机构：School of Economics Nankai University 

出 版 物：《China Economist》 (中国经济学人（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第14卷第3期

页      面：30-43页

学科分类：0502[文学-外国语言文学] 05[文学] 07[理学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 050210[文学-亚非语言文学] 

主　　题：underground economy latent variable cash ratio model multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) model 

摘      要：Over the past four decades of reform and opening up since 1978, China s GDP has been growing at 9.5% on an annual average basis. While some scholars believe that China s economic growth is systematically overestimated, this paper carries out an estimation of China s underground economy and finds that due to the existence of the underground economy, China s real GDP is systematically underestimated. China s official GDP statistics generally reflect a real picture of its economic growth. The size of China s underground economy is significantly influenced by total electricity consumption, the selfemployed ratio, labor participation rate and money supply. These findings are of great significance for policy-making.