Impact of climate change on hydropower generation in Rio Jubones Basin, Ecuador

作     者：Mohammad Mehedi Hasan Guido Wyseure 

作者机构：Hydraulic Research Directorate River Research Institute Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences KU Leuven 

出 版 物：《Water Science and Engineering》 (水科学与水工程（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第11卷第2期

页      面：157-166页

核心收录：

学科分类：0707[理学-海洋科学] 08[工学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0824[工学-船舶与海洋工程] 0814[工学-土木工程] 

基　　金：Vlaamse Interuniversitaire Raad  Belgium 

主　　题：SWAT Hydropower generation Climate change Sensitivity analysis Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) 

摘      要：This study attempted to use the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT), integrated with geographic information systems(GIS), for assessment of climate change impacts on hydropower generation. This methodology of climate change impact modeling was developed and demonstrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Rio Jubones Basin in Ecuador. ArcSWAT 2012 was used to develop a model for simulating the river flow. The model parameters were calibrated and validated on a monthly scale with respect to the hydro-meteorological inputs observed from 1985 to 1991 and from 1992 to 1998, respectively. Statistical analyses produced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies(NSEs) of 0.66 and 0.61 for model calibration and validation, respectively, which were considered acceptable. Numerical simulation with the model indicated that climate change could alter the seasonal flow regime of the basin, and the hydropower potential could change due to the changing climate in the *** analysis indicates that, though the hydropower generation will increase in the wet season, the plant will face a significant power shortage during the dry season, up to 13.14% from the reference scenario, as a consequence of a 17% reduction of streamflow under an assumption of a 2.9℃ increase in temperature and a 15% decrease in rainfall. Overall, this study showed that hydrological processes are realistically modeled with SWAT and the model can be a useful tool for predicting the impact of climate change.