Earthquake Probability of the“Seismic Gap”on the Longmenshan Fault

作     者：Song Jin Jiang Haikun Meng Lingyuan Zang Yang 

作者机构：China Earthquake Networks CenterBeijing 100045China Institute of GeophysicsChina Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100081China 

出 版 物：《Earthquake Research in China》 (中国地震研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第32卷第1期

页      面：15-27页

核心收录：

学科分类：070801[理学-固体地球物理学] 07[理学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 

基　　金：sponsored by the 2017 Earthquake Regime Tracking Work of CEA(2017010118) 

主　　题：The coulomb stress The rate-state friction law Earthquake probability 

摘      要：Using the layered viscoelastic medium model,this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan *** combined with the rate-state friction law proposed by Dieterich J.(1994),we obtain the probability of an0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of *** results show that the probability of0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to18%,indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan *** paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on theseismic gapgenerated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan,and combined with the background seismicity,gives the6.0 earthquake probability of theseismic gap.Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake,selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity,the seismic probability of theseismic gapis ***,we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in theseismic gap.