From pandemic to a new normal:Strategies to optimise governmental interventions in Indonesia based on an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model

作     者：Benny Yong Jonathan Hoseana Livia Owen 

作者机构：Center for Mathematics and SocietyDepartment of MathematicsParahyangan Catholic UniversityBandung40141Indonesia 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第7卷第3期

页      面：346-363页

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This research was supported by Parahyangan Catholic University via the Publikasi Internasional Bereputasi research grant scheme 2022(Number:III/LPPM/2022-02/75-P) 

主　　题：COVID-19 Equilibrium Basic reproduction number Intervention Social restriction Vaccination 

摘      要：There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic:vaccinations,social restrictions,tracings,testings,and *** this paper,we construct a mathematical model of type SVEIQHR(susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infected-quarantined-hospitalised-recovered)for the disease s spread in the country,which incorporates as parameters the rates of the above interventions,as well as the vaccine s *** determine the model s equilibria and basic reproduction *** the model,we formulate strategies by which the interventions should be realised in order to optimise their *** results show that,in a disease-free state,when the number of new cases rises,the best strategy is to implement social restrictions,whereas in an endemic state,if a near-lockdown policy is undesirable,carrying out vaccinations is the best strategy;however,efforts should be aimed not primarily towards increasing the vaccination rate,but towards the use of highefficacy vaccines.