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NEW DEFINITION FOR NORTH HUAIHE RIVER RAINY SEASON AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN PRECIPITATION ANOMALY YEARS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第4期18卷 521-527页

作者：吕军江志红彭华青张静蒋薇陈潇潇 Jiangsu meteorological bureau Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST) Wuxi meteorological bureau

In this article, a new definition for the North Huaihe River rainy season (NHRS) is presented using summer daily precipitation in East China and subtropical high ridge axis at 500 hPa. By calculating the annual precipitation amounts in the NHRS and Meiyu of the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin (YHMY) from 1961 to 2009, the dates of precipitation beginning and ending as well as the duration of the two rainy seasons in the 49 years are analyzed. Atmospheric circulation characteristics in positive and negative precipitation anomaly years during the NHRS are also studied. Results are shown as follows. (1) The new definition for the NHRS is much easier to use. It involves only two meteorological factors, making its application more practical. It can also distinguish two rainy periods of the NHRS more objectively. (2) The average duration of the NHRS is similar to that of the YHMY, except that its average dates of beginning and ending are about one week later than those of the YHMY. The average precipitation of the NHRS is slightly less than that of the YHMY, and the yearly precipitation variation of the two rainy seasons are similar to each other with no obvious increasing or decreasing trend in the 49 years, but with distinguished decadal and inter-annual variations. (3) In positive precipitation anomaly years, the South Asian high moves more northward and more eastward, the western Pacific subtropical high is located more northward and westward, and the summer monsoon is stronger than normal, resulting in the convergence of the warm and moist southwesterly airflow from the west side of the subtropical high and the cold air from the north side of the northeast trough in North Huaihe River basin.

关键词： North Huaihe rainy season Mei Yu atmospheric circulation characteristics

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第3期18卷 322-331页

作者：钟元潘劲松朱红陈卫锋陈世春梁明珠 Zhejiang meteorological Research Institute Zhejiang meteorological Observatory Huzhou meteorological bureau

A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific *** the initial parameters,weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products,the scheme constructs multivariate,objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of *** defining a non-linear similarity index,this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar *** historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon *** resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple *** tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill.

关键词： weather forecast forecasting methods typhoon storm precipitation site-specific and quantitative forecast similarity

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VARIATION FEATURES OF SOMALI CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AND ITS IMPACT ON THE LOCATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RIDGE FROM JULY TO SEPTEMBER

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2008年第1期14卷 15-18页

作者：林新彬许金镜温珍治何芬池艳珍 Fujian meteorological bureau

The variation features of the cross-equatorial flow and its impact on the ridge position of the subtropical high have been analyzed in this paper. It is shown as follows. (1) The intensity of the Somali cross-equatorial flow is increasing in winter and summer in the past 44 years and the airflow of Northern Hemisphere exchanges more and more intensively with that of Southern Hemisphere. (2) The Somali cross-equatorial flow in May has the most impact on the ridge position of the subtropical high in the typhoon season, presenting a positive correlation. (3) The diagnosis is consistent with the real situation in 2005.

关键词： cross-equatorial flow subtropical ridge position correlation analysis diagnosis

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SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND VARIATION TENDENCY OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN HUNAN PROVINCE DURING THE PAST 36 YEARS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第4期17卷 385-391页

作者：张剑明章新平黎祖贤张健肖艳刘燚周伟 Zhuzhou meteorological bureau College of Resources and Environment Sciences Hunan Normal University Hunan meteorological Observatory Liling meteorological bureau

Using the 1970-2005 annual precipitation and evaporation data at 80 gauge stations across Hunan province,this work analyzes the spatial distribution and variation tendency of the local droughts and floods using linear regression,wavelet analysis,abrupt change,clusters,Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and rotated EOF (REOF).Results show that there are four dry areas and three wet areas in *** whole province exhibits a moistening trend except some small areas in western,eastern and southern *** most prominent feature of annual precipitation is that the whole province basically displays a consistent variation tendency,as far as the dominant EOF mode is *** addition,the spatial features of the other EOF modes include dry-wet differences,*** (or dry) in the north versus dry (or wet) in the south,wet (or dry) in the center and dry (or wet) in the surrounding *** distribution of the ratios of evaporation to precipitation exhibits both common features as well as spatial differences,which can be classified into four types:South Hunan,North Hunan,Northeast Hunan,and Central *** is an abrupt change from dry to wet patterns in the early ***,the drought-flood distribution presents variations of three *** the late 2000s,Hunan province will be in a period of drought,followed by a period of flood.

关键词： spatiotemporal characteristics REOF Morlet analysis Hunan province drought and flood

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DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF A RAINSTORM IN SHANDONG PENINSULA INFLUENCED BY A DISTANT TROPICAL DEPRESSION

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2008年第1期14卷 73-76页

作者：闫淑莲周淑玲李宏江 Weihai meteorological bureau

Based on the observational data as well as data of satellite, NCEP reanalysis and moist potential vortex, the heavy rainfall event that occurred away from the outer cycle of tropical depression Kaemi (No.0605) on July 27, 2006 in Shandong Peninsula has been analyzed. The results show that there are three severe convective cloud clusters during the heavy rainfall. The uprightness of coupling pattern between upper-layer jet and low jet and a divergence area, which appeared in the right of upper-layer jet, provided favorable environmental conditions for convective cloud clusters. The strong convective weather happens over the prefrontal warm sector and the storm rainfall mainly distributes in the front of a high-energy area. Positive vorticity distribution and transportation of warm advection in low levels provide dynamic and thermal conditions for the rainstorm. The spatial-temporal evolvements of physical variable fields and MPV2 as the horizontal component of moist potential vorticity show that the rain intensity change is determined by upper and low level jets and the area of MPV2>0 occurs at the front of the low jet cores.

关键词： rainstorm tropical depression trough upper and lower level-jet moist baroclinity moist potential vortexl Introduction

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ANALYSIS OF RAINSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMILAR TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONES HAITANG (0505) AND BILIS (0604)

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2009年第1期15卷 111-115页

作者：余贞寿陈宣淼倪东鸿冀春晓谢海华 Wenzhou meteorological bureau Yueqin meteorological bureau Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education NUIST Zhejiang Institute of meteorological Sciences

It is generally thought that the influence of comparable track typhoons is approximately similar, but in fact their wind and especially their rainstorm distribution are often very different. Therefore, a contrastive analysis of rainstorms by tropical cyclones (TCs) Haitang (0505) and Bilis (0604), which are of a similar track, is designed to help understand the mechanism of the TC rainstorm and to improve forecasting skills. The daily rainfall of TC Haitang (0505) and Bilis (0604) is diagnosed and compared. The result indicates that these two TCs have similar precipitation distribution before landfall but different precipitation characteristics after landfall. Using NCEP/GFS analysis data, the synoptic situation is analyzed; water vapor transportation is discussed regarding the calculated water vapor flux and divergence. The results show that the heavy rainfall in the Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces associated with Haitang (0505) and Bilis (0604) before landfall results from a peripheral easterly wind, a combination of the tropical cyclone and the terrain. After landfall and moving far inland of the storm, the precipitation of Haitang is caused by water vapor convergence carried by its own circulation; it is much weaker than that in the coastal area. One of the important contributing factors to heavy rainstorms in southeast Zhejiang is a southeast jet stream, which is maintained over the southeast coast. In contrast, the South China Sea monsoon circulation transports large amounts of water vapor into Bilis – when a water-vapor transport belt south of the tropical cyclone significantly strengthens – which strengthens the transport. Then, it causes water vapor flux to converge on the south side of Bilis and diverge on the north side. Precipitation is much stronger on the south side than that on the north side. After Bilis travels far inland, the cold air guided by a north trough travels into the TC and remarkably enhances precipitation. In summary, combining vertical wi

关键词： weather forecast tropical cyclones typhoon rainstorms similar tracks water vapor flux vertical wind shear

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Satellite image analysis and study of Taklimakan Desert rain trails

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Science China Chemistry 1995年第9期38卷 1146-1153页

作者：徐希慧 Xinjiang meteorological bureau Urumqi 830002China

The Taklimakan Desert nephsystem and rain trails after heavy precipitation have been moni-tored continuously for 3 years by using TIROS-N/NOAA meteorological satellite of the United *** facts and its statistical characteristics of the desert rain trails are mainly *** weathersystems which form the deset rain trails are *** significance and some other problems of desertrain trails are also discussed.

关键词： satellite image monitoring desert heavy rainfall desert rain trails drought.

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Spatial Distribution and Temporal Variation of the Winter Wheat Late Frost Disaster in Henan,China

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第2期25卷 249-259页

作者：张雪芬郑有飞王春乙陈怀亮任振和邹春辉 Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology meteorological Observation Centre of CMA Hainan Provincial meteorological bureau Henan Provincial meteorological bureau Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences

The winter wheat late frost disaster（WFD） occurs mainly in the Yellow and Huaihe River area,of which Henan Province covers the most *** is the major area of wheat production in China,but it is severely hit by the *** this study,we construct a WFD index based on the minimum temperature and the winter wheat development period（WDP）.The WFD degrees and days at 30 agrometeorological stations in Henan Province during the period of 1981-2004 are *** the large-scale temporal variation analysis of WFD,the 24-yr WDP observation series is relatively short,so it is expanded by using the relation between the turning green date of winter wheat and the 5-day running mean temperature and that between the stem elongation phase and the effective cumulative temperature above a critical value of 2.5 ℃.The WFD data are also expanded for the last 50 years and are analyzed by using the empirical orthogonal function（EOF） and the Morlet wavelet *** in the spatial distribution and temporal variation of WFD are *** results show that the frequency of WFD is generally high,exceeding 40% in parts of Henan,and exhibits a rising trend in the period of *** variation trend of WFD degrees is similar to that of WFD days,and the areas with higher WFD degrees coincide the areas with more WFD ***,the WFD degree has a greater impact on the winter wheat yield than the WFD *** areas with high WFD degrees lie in the southeast and southwest of Henan,and the areas with low WFD degrees lie in the south of the Huaihe River and parts of western *** variations of the first and second EOF modes of the WFD degree display 16-and quasi-22-yr periodicities,*** areas of high（low） WFD frequency are distributed in the northern Henan and the southwest border of Henan（the northeast Henan and the middle part of southwest Henan）.The temporal variation of the first（second） EOF mode of WFD days exhibits a periodicity（periodicities

关键词： late frost disaster frost index EOF analysis Morlet wavelet analysis

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Evaluation of Agricultural Climatic Resource Utilization During Spring Maize Cultivation in Northeast China Under Climate Change

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2013年第5期27卷 758-768页

作者：郭建平赵俊芳袁彬冶明珠 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Huafeng meteorological Media Group Xining meteorological bureau

Agricultural climatic resources （such as light,temperature,and water） are environmental factors that affect crop *** the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural *** study investigates these effects under the IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 （0.25° ×0.25°） during *** outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and *** climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring *** indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index （Isr）,an average efficacy suitability index （Ise）,and an average resource utilization index （K）,are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and *** indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global *** three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,*** Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after *** spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift ***,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning *** maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.

关键词： climate change Northeast China spring maize climatic suitability agricultural climatic resource utilization

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Deep learning-based subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction in southwest China:Algorithm comparison and sensitivity to input features

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2023年第4期7卷 471-486页

作者： GuoLu Gao Yang Li XueYun Zhou XiaoMing Xiang JiaQi Li ShuCheng Yin Ya’an meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauYa’an Sichuan 625000China Plateau and Basin Rainstorm Drought and Flood Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu 610000China College of Atmospheric Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China meteorological Observation and Data Centre Sichuan Meteorological BureauChengdu 610072China Leshan meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauLeshan Sichuan 614000China Quanzhou meteorological Observatory Fujian Meteorological BureauQuanzhou Fujian 362000China

The prediction of precipitation at subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)timescales remains an enormous challenge because of the gap between weather and climate *** study compares three deep learning algorithms,namely,the long short-term memory recurrent(LSTM),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and recurrent neural network(RNN),and selects the optimal algorithm to establish an S2S precipitation prediction *** models were evaluated in four subregions of the Sichuan Province:the Plateau,Valley,eastern Basin,and western *** results showed that the RNN model had better performance than the LSTM and GRU *** could be because the RNN model had an advantage over the LSTM model in the transformation of climate indices with positive and negative *** the validation of test datasets,the RNN model successfully predicted the precipitation trend in most years during the wet season(May-October).The RNN model had a lower prediction bias(within±10%),higher sign accuracy of the precipitation trend(~88.95%),and greater accuracy of the maximum precipitation month(>0.85).For the prediction of different lead times,the RNN model was able to provide a stable trend prediction for summer precipitation,and the time correlation coefficient score was higher than that of the National Climate Center of ***,this study proposed a method to measure the sensitivity of the RNN model to different input features,which may provide unprecedented insights into the nonlinear relationship and complicated feedback process among climate *** results of the sensitivity distribution are as ***,the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were equally important for the prediction of wet season ***,the sensitivity of the snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau was higher than that in the Northern ***,an opposite sensitivity appeared in two different patterns of the Indian Ocean and sea ice concentrations in the Arctic and the Barents Sea.

关键词： recurrent neural network long short-term memory recurrent sensitivity analysis artificial intelligence explainability complex terrain southwest China

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