Evaluation of Agricultural Climatic Resource Utilization During Spring Maize Cultivation in Northeast China Under Climate Change

作     者：郭建平 赵俊芳 袁彬 冶明珠 

作者机构：Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Huafeng Meteorological Media Group Xining Meteorological Bureau 

出 版 物：《Acta meteorologica Sinica》 (Acta Meteorologica Sinica)

年 卷 期：2013年第27卷第5期

页      面：758-768页

核心收录：

学科分类：0707[理学-海洋科学] 09[农学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0824[工学-船舶与海洋工程] 0901[农学-作物学] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201106020) ChinaMeteorological Administration Special Climate Change Research Fund(CCSF201346) 

主　　题：climate change Northeast China spring maize climatic suitability agricultural climatic resource utilization 

摘      要：Agricultural climatic resources （such as light,temperature,and water） are environmental factors that affect crop *** the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural *** study investigates these effects under the IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 （0.25° ×0.25°） during *** outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and *** climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring *** indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index （Isr）,an average efficacy suitability index （Ise）,and an average resource utilization index （K）,are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and *** indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global *** three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,*** Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after *** spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift ***,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning *** maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.