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Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

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Journal of arid Land 2024年第3期16卷 331-354页

作者： XU Wenjie DING Jianli BAO Qingling WANG Jinjie XU Kun College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830017China Key laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modelling of Higher Education Institute Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830017China

xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Pre

关键词： precipitation estimates satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation dynamic Bayesian model averaging streamflow simulation Ebinur Lake Basin xinjiang

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Spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem services and driving factors in the Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve of xinjiang,China

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Journal of arid Land 2024年第6期16卷 816-833页

作者： ZHU Haiqiang WANG Jinlong TANG Junhu DING Zhaolong GONG Lu Key laboratory of Sustainable Development of Xingjiang's Historical and Cultural Tourism Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China College of Tourism Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China Ecological Postdoctoral Research Station Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China College of Ecology and Environment Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830017China

Nature reserves play a significant role in providing ecosystem services and are key sites for biodiversity conservation.The Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve(TBPNR),located in xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,is an important ecological barrier area in the temperate arid zone.The evaluation of its important ecosystem services is of great significance to improve the management level and ecological protection efficiency of the reserve.In the present study,we assessed the spatiotemporal variations of four ecosystem services(including net primary productivity(NPP),water yield,soil conservation,and habitat quality)in the TBPNR from 2000 to 2020 based on the environmental and social data using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.In addition,the coldspot and hotspot areas of ecosystem services were identified by hotspot analysis,and the trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services were analyzed using factor analysis in a geographic detector.During the study period,NPP and soil conservation values in the reserve increased by 48.20%and 25.56%,respectively;conversely,water yield decreased by 16.56%,and there was no significant change in habitat quality.Spatially,both NPP and habitat quality values were higher in the northern part and lower in the southern part,whereas water yield showed an opposite trend.Correlation analysis revealed that NPP showed a synergistic relationship with habitat quality and soil conservation,and exhibited a trade-off relationship with water yield.water yield and habitat quality also had a trade-off relationship.NPP and habitat quality were affected by annual average temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),respectively,while water yield and soil conservation were more affected by digital elevation model(DEM).Therefore,attention should be paid to the spatial distribution and dynamics of trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services in future ecological management.The findings of the present

关键词： net primary productivity(NPP) water yield soil conservation habitat quality Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model geographic detector Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve

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Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of ecosystem services in Central Asia

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干旱区科学:英文版 2023年第1期15卷 1-19页

作者： YAN Xue LI Lanhai State Key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Ili Station for watershed Ecosystem Research Chinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China CAS Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China xinjiang Key laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Urumqi 830011China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Land use/land cover(LULC)change and climate change are two major factors affecting the provision of ecosystem services which are closely related to human well-being.However,a clear understanding of the relationships between these two factors and ecosystem services in Central Asia is still lacking.This study aimed to comprehensively assess ecosystem services in Central Asia and analyze how they are impacted by changes in LULC and climate.The spatiotemporal patterns of three ecosystem services during the period of 2000-2015,namely the net primary productivity(NPP),water yield,and soil retention,were quantified and mapped by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA)model,Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model,and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE).Scenarios were used to determine the relative importance and combined effect of LULC change and climate change on ecosystem services.Then,the relationships between climate factors(precipitation and temperature)and ecosystem services,as well as between LULC change and ecosystem services,were further discussed.The results showed that the high values of ecosystem services appeared in the southeast of Central Asia.Among the six biomes(alpine forest region(AFR),alpine meadow region(AMR),typical steppe region(TSR),desert steppe region(DSR),desert region(DR),and lake region(LR)),the values of ecosystem services followed the order of AFR>AMR>TSR>DSR>DR>LR.In addition,the values of ecosystem services fluctuated during the period of 2000-2015,with the most significant decreases observed in the southeast mountainous area and northwest of Central Asia.LULC change had a greater impact on the NPP,while climate change had a stronger influence on the water yield and soil retention.The combined LULC change and climate change exhibited a significant synergistic effect on ecosystem services in most of Central Asia.Moreover,ecosystem services were more strongly and positively correlated with precipitation than with temperature.The greening of desert are

关键词： ecosystem services land use/land cover change climate change net primary productivity water yield soil retention Central Asia

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A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

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Journal of arid Land 2024年第2期16卷 195-219页

作者： LIU Xinyu LI Xuemei ZHANG Zhengrong ZHAO Kaixin LI Lanhai Faculty of Geomatics Lanzhou Jiaotong UniversityLanzhou 730070China National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring Lanzhou 730070China Gansu Provincial Engineering laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring Lanzhou 730070China State Key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperatu

关键词： climate change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) global climate models(GCMs) shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios standardized precipitation index(SPI) Chinese Tianshan Mountains

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Projection of hydrothermal condition in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios

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Journal of arid Land 2022年第5期14卷 521-536页

作者： YAO Linlin ZHOU Hongfei YAN Yingjie LI Lanhai SU Yuan State Key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Fukang National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Desert Ecosystems Chinese Academy of SciencesFukang 831505China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Ili Station for watershed Ecosystem Research Chinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China xinjiang Key laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Urumqi 830011China

Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions,particularly in Central Asia(including Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan),resulting many environmental limitations.In this study,we projected hydrothermal condition in Central Asia based on bias-corrected multi-model ensembles(MMEs)from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway(SSP-RCP)scenarios(SSP126(SSP1-RCP2.6),SSP245(SSP2-RCP4.5),SSP460(SSP4-RCP6.0),and SSP585(SSP5-RCP8.5))during 2015-2100.The bias correction and spatial disaggregation,water-thermal product index,and sensitivity analysis were used in this study.The results showed that the hydrothermal condition is mismatched in the central and southern deserts,whereas the region of Pamir Mountains and Tianshan Mountains as well as the northern plains of Kazakhstan showed a matched hydrothermal condition.Compared with the historical period,the matched degree of hydrothermal condition improves during 2046-2075,but degenerates during 2015-2044 and 2076-2100.The change of hydrothermal condition is sensitive to precipitation in the northern regions and the maximum temperatures in the southern regions.The result suggests that the optimal scenario in Central Asia is SSP126 scenario,while SSP585 scenario brings further hydrothermal contradictions.This study provides scientific information for the development and sustainable utilization of hydrothermal resources in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change.

关键词： hydrothermal condition water-thermal product index bias correction and spatial disaggregation SSP-RCP scenarios Central Asia

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Dew amount and its long-term variation in the Kunes River Valley,Northwest China

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Journal of arid Land 2022年第7期14卷 753-770页

作者： FENG Ting HUANG Farong ZHU Shuzhen BU Lingjie QI Zhiming LI Lanhai State Key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Tianshan Station for Snowcover and Avalanche Research Chinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China xinjiang Key laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Urumqi 830011China Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Department of Bioresource Engineering McGill UniversityMontreal H3A0G4Canada

Dew is an essential water resource for the survival and reproduction of organisms in arid and semi-arid regions.Yet estimating the dew amount and quantifying its long-term variation are challenging.In this study,we elucidate the dew amount and its long-term variation in the Kunes River Valley,Northwest China,based on the measured daily dew amount and reconstructed values(using meteorological data from 1980 to 2021),respectively.Four key results were found:(1)the daily mean dew amount was 0.05 mm during the observation period(4 July-12 August and 13 September-7 October of 2021).In 35 d of the observation period(i.e.,73%of the observation period),the daily dew amount exceeded the threshold(>0.03 mm/d)for microorganisms;(2)air temperature,relative humidity,and wind speed had significant impacts on the daily dew amount based on the relationships between the measured dew amount and meteorological variables;(3)for estimating the daily dew amount,random forest(RF)model outperformed multiple linear regression(MLR)model given its larger R^(2) and lower MAE and RMSE;and(4)the dew amount during June-October and in each month did not vary significantly from 1980 to the beginning of the 21^(st) century.It then significantly decreased for about a decade,after it increased slightly from 2013 to 2021.For the whole meteorological period of 1980-2021,the dew amount decreased significantly during June-October and in July and September,and there was no significant variation in June,August,and October.Variation in the dew amount in the Kunes River Valley was mainly driven by relative humidity.This study illustrates that RF model can be used to reconstruct long-term variation in the dew amount,which provides valuable information for us to better understand the dew amount and its relationship with climate change.

关键词： dew amount long-term variation meteorological variables random forest model multiple linear regression model Kunes River Valley

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Impact of climate factors on runoff in the Kaidu River watershed:path analysis of 50-year data

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Journal of arid Land 2011年第2期3卷 132-140页

作者： XueMei LI LanHai LI LingPeng GUO FeiYun ZHANG Suwannee ADSAVAKULCHAI Ming SHANG xinjiang laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Acad-emy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China School of Engineering University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Bangkok 10400 Thailand

Runoff formation is a complex meteorological-hydrological process impacted by many factors,especially in the inland river basin.Based on the data of daily mean air temperature,precipitation and runoff during the period of 1958-2007 in the Kaidu River watershed,this paper analyzed the changes in air temperature,precipitation and runoff and revealed the direct and indirect impacts of daily air temperature and precipitation on daily runoff by path analysis.The results showed that mean temperature time series of the annual,summer and autumn had a significant fluctuant increase during the last 50 years（P 0.05）.Only winter precipitation increased significantly（P 0.05） with a rate of 1.337 mm/10a.The annual and winter runoff depthes in the last 50 years significantly increased with the rates of 7.11 mm/10a and 1.85 mm/10a,respectively.The driving function of both daily temperature and precipitation on daily runoff in annual and seasonal levels is significant in the Kaidu River watershed by correlation analysis.The result of path analysis showed that the positive effect of daily air temperature on daily runoff depth is much higher than that of daily precipitation in annual,spring,autumn and winter,however,the trend is opposite in summer.

关键词： climate factors runoff formation inland river Kaidu River watershed path analysis

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Alkaloids of Nitraria sibirica Pall. decrease hypertension and albuminuria in angiotensin II-salt hypertension

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Chinese Journal of Natural Medicines 2014年第4期12卷 266-272页

作者： Mahinur Bakri YI Yang CHEN Ling-Dan Haji Akber Aisa WANG Mong-Heng The Key laboratory of Plant Resources and Chemistry of arid zone Xinjiang Technical Institute of Physics and ChemistryChinese Academy of Sciences State Key laboratory Basis of xinjiang Indigenous Medicinal Plants Resource utilization Xinjiang Technical Institute of Physics and ChemistryChinese Academy of Sciences Department of Physiology Georgia Regents University

In traditional Chinese medicine, Nitraria sibirica Pall.(Nitrariaceae) is used to treat hypertension. This study determined the effects of the total alkaloids of the leaves of Nitraria sibirica(NSTA) on blood pressure and albuminuria in mice treated with angiotensin II and a high-salt diet(ANG/HS). Adult mice were divided into three groups: control; infused with angiotensin II and fed a diet containing 4% NaCl(ANG/HS; and ANG/HS plus injection of NSTA(1 mg·kg-1·d-1, i.p.). After treatment of these regimens, daily water and food intake, kidney weight, blood pressure, urinary albumin excretion, renal concentrations of inflammatory markers, including soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1(sICAM-1) and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1(MCP-1), and the expression of renal fibrosis markers were determined. Compared to the control group, the ANG/HS group had higher blood pressure and urinary albumin excretion. Treatment with NSTA in ANG/HS mice for three weeks significantly reduced blood pressure and urinary albumin excretion. ANG/HS treatment caused elevated levels of sICAM-1 and MCP-1, as well as increased fibrosis markers. Concurrent treatment with ANG/HS and NSTA attenuated the levels and expression of renal inflammatory and fibrosis markers. Treatment with NSTA effectively reduces hypertension-induced albuminuria through the reduction of renal inflammatory and fibrosis markers.

关键词： Nitraria sibirica Alkaloids Blood pressure High salt diet Hypertension Albuminuria

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Interdecadal variations of pan-evaporation at the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, China

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Journal of arid Land 2016年第6期8卷 832-845页

作者： LI Sisi WANG Quan LI Lanhai State Key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China xinjiang key laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China Faculty of Agriculture Shizuoka University Shizuoka 422-8529 Japan

Evaporation controlled by meteorological parameters plays a crucial role in hydrology, meteorology and water resources management. An insight view of long-term variation in evaporation will help understanding the effects of climate change and provide useful information for rational utilization of water resources, especially in the arid land where the shortage of water resources exists. However, the lack of data on evaporation led to difficulties in assessing the impacts of climate change on evaporation, especially in arid mountainous area. This study investigated the long-term variation of the pan-evaporation （Ep） measured by E601 type evaporation pan and its influencing climatic factors at both northern and southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in xinjiang of China using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and Path analysis. The results revealed that Eps at both northern and southern slopes had obvious interdecadal variation within cycles of 3-4 and 7-8 years. Eps at both slopes sharply decreased in early 1980s, but increased after late 1990s. Path analysis showed that the 3-4 years cycle of Ep at the northern and southern slopes was mainly dependent upon actual water vapor pressure with a negative direct path coefficient of-0.515 and sunshine duration with a positive direct path coefficient of 0.370, respectively. The variation of Ep with cycle of 7-8 years at the northern slope was attributed to the wind speed with a direct path coefficient of 0.774. Average temperature had a direct path coefficient of 0.813 in 7-8 years cycle at the southern slope. The assessment of Ep variation and its causes provides information essential for a good understanding of hydrologic cycle and regional climate of arid mountainous regions in xinjiang of China and offers a theoretical reference for distribution and utilization of water resources.

关键词： interdecadal variation pan-evaporation Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition path analysis Tianshan Mountains

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Spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of the intensity of agricultural water footprint in xinjiang, China

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International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering 2023年第3期16卷 262-272页

作者： Yanyun Wang Aihua Long Xiaoya Deng Abuduaini Abulizi Jie Wang Pei Zhang Yang Hai Cai Ren Ji Zhang Yundong Liu Weiming Zhao Postdoctoral Workstation China ReinsuranceBeijing 100032China State Key laboratory of water cycle Simulation and Regulation Department of Water ResourcesChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijing 100038China College of water Conservancy and Architectural Engineering Shihezi UniversityShihezi832003XinjiangChina Aketao County water Conservancy Bureau of Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture 845500XinjiangChina Hunan Institute of water Resources and Hydropower Research Changsha 410001China

xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,the largest agricultural high-efficiency water-saving arid area in China,was adopted to explore the coupling relationship between agricultural water consumption and economic benefits,which is of great significance to guiding the efficient utilization and sustainable development of agricultural water resources.This study utilizes an indicator,termed the Agricultural water Footprint Intensity(short as AWFI,which means the amount of water resource consumed per unit of agricultural GDP),to study the economic benefits of agricultural water in xinjiang from 1991-2018.In addition,the Theil index,a measure of the imbalance between individuals or regions,was used to study the evolution in the spatial differences in water efficiency,and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method was applied to quantify the factors driving the AWFI.The results showed that AWFI in xinjiang has experienced three stages:obvious decline,stable and slow decline,which decreased from 16114 m^(3)/10^(4) CNY to 2100 m^(3)/10^(4) CNY,decreasing by 86.97%.The Theil index indicated that the spatial evolution of 14 prefectures(cities)resembled an inverted N-shaped Kuznets curve over time.Among the influencing factors,the contributions of water-saving technology and planting structure to the change in the AWFI in xinjiang,China from 1991 to 2018 were 154.03%and−37.98%,respectively.The total contribution to AWFI of the total population,urbanization rate,and production scale was−16.06%.This study concluded that further improvements in the economic benefits of agricultural water consumption can be obtained by continuing to promote more efficient or“water-conservation”irrigation technologies(engineering aspects),adjusting the planting structure(policy guidance aspects),and intensive management of cultivated land(management aspects).

关键词： agricultural water footprint intensity theil index logarithmic mean divisia index xinjiang

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