Projection of hydrothermal condition in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios

作     者：YAO Linlin ZHOU Hongfei YAN Yingjie LI Lanhai SU Yuan YAO Linlin;ZHOU Hongfei;YAN Yingjie;LI Lanhai;SU Yuan

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis EcologyXinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Fukang National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Desert EcosystemsChinese Academy of SciencesFukang 831505China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Ili Station for Watershed Ecosystem ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central AsiaUrumqi 830011China Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid ZoneUrumqi 830011China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Arid Land》 (干旱区科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第14卷第5期

页      面：521-536页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Pan-Third Pole Environment Study for a Green Silk Road(Pan-TPE)of China(XDA2004030202) Shanghai Cooperation and the Organization Science and Technology Partnership of China(2021E01019) 

主　　题：hydrothermal condition water-thermal product index bias correction and spatial disaggregation SSP-RCP scenarios Central Asia 

摘      要：Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions,particularly in Central Asia(including Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan),resulting many environmental *** this study,we projected hydrothermal condition in Central Asia based on bias-corrected multi-model ensembles(MMEs)from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway(SSP-RCP)scenarios(SSP126(SSP1-RCP2.6),SSP245(SSP2-RCP4.5),SSP460(SSP4-RCP6.0),and SSP585(SSP5-RCP8.5))during *** bias correction and spatial disaggregation,water-thermal product index,and sensitivity analysis were used in this *** results showed that the hydrothermal condition is mismatched in the central and southern deserts,whereas the region of Pamir Mountains and Tianshan Mountains as well as the northern plains of Kazakhstan showed a matched hydrothermal *** with the historical period,the matched degree of hydrothermal condition improves during 2046-2075,but degenerates during 2015-2044 and *** change of hydrothermal condition is sensitive to precipitation in the northern regions and the maximum temperatures in the southern *** result suggests that the optimal scenario in Central Asia is SSP126 scenario,while SSP585 scenario brings further hydrothermal *** study provides scientific information for the development and sustainable utilization of hydrothermal resources in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change.