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Snowpack variations and their hazardous effects under climate warming in the central Tianshan Mountains

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 442-451页

作者： Jian-Sheng HAO Yan WANG Lan-Hai LI key laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101China xinjiang key laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Urumqi 830011China State key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Tianshan Snowcover and Avalanche Observation and Research Station of xinjiang Xinyuan 835800China CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China

Climate change alters snowpack evolution,which in turn influences the likelihood of snow avalanches and flood *** lack of systemic observational data on key snow characteristics in high mountains remains a scientific challenge in terms of systematically elucidating the dynamic chain of variations in climate-snowpack-snow *** restricts our understanding and poses challenges in the prediction of snow-related disaster *** such,this study analysed the variations of temperature and snowfall and the physical characteristics of snowpacks based on ground-based observations from the Kunse River Valley situated in the Tianshan Mountains from 1967 to *** results reveal that the temperature increased significantly by 0.32°C per decade(pwater equivalent,thus indicating a higher frequency of extremely scarce or abundant snow *** low snowpack temperature gradient and earlier snowmelt dates in spring lead to earlier occurrences of snowmelt floods and wet *** the risks of these events increase,they pose greater threats to farmlands,road transportation,water-electricity infrastructure and several other human ***,these insights are critical for providing vital information that can deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on snowpack characteristics and improve management strategies for snow-related disaster prevention and mitigation.

关键词： Climate change Snowpack variations Snow-related disaster Tianshan Mountains

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Comparison of the water consumption levels of four shelterbelt tree species in a typical arid oasis in Northwest China

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International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering 2024年第2期17卷 169-176页

作者： Shuai Fu Bingxian Xu Yufang Leng Yuxin Peng Guogen Tao Lanhai Li School of Taxation and Public Administration Jiangxi University of Finance and EconomicsNanchang 330013China Research team of International price analysis and prediction of bulk commodities Jiangxi University of Finance and EconomicsNanchang 330013China School of Foreign Languages Jiangxi University of Finance and EconomicsNanchang 330013China laboratory of water cycle and water Use in arid Region Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Tianshan Snow Cover and Avalanche Observation and Research Station of xinjiang Xinyuan 835800XinjiangChina

The shelterbelt is an indispensable barrier to the ecological and economic development of an *** moisture,groundwater and irrigation greatly affect the shelterbelt water consumption and *** this study,the transpiration rate of shelterbelt trees,soil moisture and meteorological data were collected to determine the effects of soil moisture and meteorological factors on the water consumption of different shelterbelt tree species via multivariate statistical *** results showed that the water consumption rate was positively correlated with solar radiation,air temperature and ***,the leaf transpiration rate exhibited the trend of *** Jabl.˃***˃*** Carr.>***,while the average daily water consumption decreased in the order of ***>*** Jabl.>*** Carr.>*** average daily water consumption levels of ***,*** Jabl.,*** *** *** were(9.15±0.92)kg/(tree∙d),(6.95±1.41)kg/(tree∙d),(4.43±1.32)kg/(tree∙d),and(1.58±0.18)kg/(tree∙d),*** the growing season,the soil water consumption levels of ***,*** Jabl.,*** Carr.,and *** in each shelterbelt tree stand reached 674.8,336.9,358.1 and 161.7 kg,*** than 96%of the soil moisture lost was provided by the upper 120-cm soil *** the influence and contribution of soil water and meteorological factors to shelterbelt water consumption is beneficial for shelterbelt management and protection.

关键词： water consumption irrigation management shelterbelts soil moisture climatic factors

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Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of ecosystem services in Central Asia

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干旱区科学:英文版 2023年第1期15卷 1-19页

作者： YAN Xue LI Lanhai State key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Ili Station for watershed Ecosystem Research Chinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China CAS Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China xinjiang key laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Urumqi 830011China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Land use/land cover(LULC)change and climate change are two major factors affecting the provision of ecosystem services which are closely related to human ***,a clear understanding of the relationships between these two factors and ecosystem services in Central Asia is still *** study aimed to comprehensively assess ecosystem services in Central Asia and analyze how they are impacted by changes in LULC and *** spatiotemporal patterns of three ecosystem services during the period of 2000-2015,namely the net primary productivity(NPP),water yield,and soil retention,were quantified and mapped by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA)model,Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model,and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE).Scenarios were used to determine the relative importance and combined effect of LULC change and climate change on ecosystem ***,the relationships between climate factors(precipitation and temperature)and ecosystem services,as well as between LULC change and ecosystem services,were further *** results showed that the high values of ecosystem services appeared in the southeast of Central *** the six biomes(alpine forest region(AFR),alpine meadow region(AMR),typical steppe region(TSR),desert steppe region(DSR),desert region(DR),and lake region(LR)),the values of ecosystem services followed the order of AFR>AMR>TSR>DSR>DR>*** addition,the values of ecosystem services fluctuated during the period of 2000-2015,with the most significant decreases observed in the southeast mountainous area and northwest of Central *** change had a greater impact on the NPP,while climate change had a stronger influence on the water yield and soil *** combined LULC change and climate change exhibited a significant synergistic effect on ecosystem services in most of Central ***,ecosystem services were more strongly and positively correlated with precipitation

关键词： ecosystem services land use/land cover change climate change net primary productivity water yield soil retention Central Asia

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Projection of hydrothermal condition in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios

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Journal of arid Land 2022年第5期14卷 521-536页

作者： YAO Linlin ZHOU Hongfei YAN Yingjie LI Lanhai SU Yuan State key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Fukang National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Desert Ecosystems Chinese Academy of SciencesFukang 831505China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Ili Station for watershed Ecosystem Research Chinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China xinjiang key laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Urumqi 830011China

Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions,particularly in Central Asia(including Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan),resulting many environmental *** this study,we projected hydrothermal condition in Central Asia based on bias-corrected multi-model ensembles(MMEs)from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway(SSP-RCP)scenarios(SSP126(SSP1-RCP2.6),SSP245(SSP2-RCP4.5),SSP460(SSP4-RCP6.0),and SSP585(SSP5-RCP8.5))during *** bias correction and spatial disaggregation,water-thermal product index,and sensitivity analysis were used in this *** results showed that the hydrothermal condition is mismatched in the central and southern deserts,whereas the region of Pamir Mountains and Tianshan Mountains as well as the northern plains of Kazakhstan showed a matched hydrothermal *** with the historical period,the matched degree of hydrothermal condition improves during 2046-2075,but degenerates during 2015-2044 and *** change of hydrothermal condition is sensitive to precipitation in the northern regions and the maximum temperatures in the southern *** result suggests that the optimal scenario in Central Asia is SSP126 scenario,while SSP585 scenario brings further hydrothermal *** study provides scientific information for the development and sustainable utilization of hydrothermal resources in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change.

关键词： hydrothermal condition water-thermal product index bias correction and spatial disaggregation SSP-RCP scenarios Central Asia

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Dew amount and its long-term variation in the Kunes River Valley,Northwest China

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Journal of arid Land 2022年第7期14卷 753-770页

作者： FENG Ting HUANG Farong ZHU Shuzhen BU Lingjie QI Zhiming LI Lanhai State key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Tianshan Station for Snowcover and Avalanche Research Chinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China xinjiang key laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Urumqi 830011China Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Department of Bioresource Engineering McGill UniversityMontreal H3A0G4Canada

Dew is an essential water resource for the survival and reproduction of organisms in arid and semi-arid *** estimating the dew amount and quantifying its long-term variation are *** this study,we elucidate the dew amount and its long-term variation in the Kunes River Valley,Northwest China,based on the measured daily dew amount and reconstructed values(using meteorological data from 1980 to 2021),*** key results were found:(1)the daily mean dew amount was 0.05 mm during the observation period(4 July-12 August and 13 September-7 October of 2021).In 35 d of the observation period(i.e.,73%of the observation period),the daily dew amount exceeded the threshold(>0.03 mm/d)for microorganisms;(2)air temperature,relative humidity,and wind speed had significant impacts on the daily dew amount based on the relationships between the measured dew amount and meteorological variables;(3)for estimating the daily dew amount,random forest(RF)model outperformed multiple linear regression(MLR)model given its larger R^(2) and lower MAE and RMSE;and(4)the dew amount during June-October and in each month did not vary significantly from 1980 to the beginning of the 21^(st) *** then significantly decreased for about a decade,after it increased slightly from 2013 to *** the whole meteorological period of 1980-2021,the dew amount decreased significantly during June-October and in July and September,and there was no significant variation in June,August,and *** in the dew amount in the Kunes River Valley was mainly driven by relative *** study illustrates that RF model can be used to reconstruct long-term variation in the dew amount,which provides valuable information for us to better understand the dew amount and its relationship with climate change.

关键词： dew amount long-term variation meteorological variables random forest model multiple linear regression model Kunes River Valley

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A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

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Journal of arid Land 2024年第2期16卷 195-219页

作者： LIU Xinyu LI Xuemei ZHANG Zhengrong ZHAO Kaixin LI Lanhai Faculty of Geomatics Lanzhou Jiaotong UniversityLanzhou 730070China National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring Lanzhou 730070China Gansu Provincial Engineering laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring Lanzhou 730070China State key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human *** and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and *** Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate *** this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional *** on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during *** further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 *** MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in *** GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the *** and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the *** the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet ***,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbal

关键词： climate change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) global climate models(GCMs) shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios standardized precipitation index(SPI) Chinese Tianshan Mountains

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Interdecadal variations of pan-evaporation at the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, China

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Journal of arid Land 2016年第6期8卷 832-845页

作者： LI Sisi WANG Quan LI Lanhai State key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China xinjiang key laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China Faculty of Agriculture Shizuoka University Shizuoka 422-8529 Japan

Evaporation controlled by meteorological parameters plays a crucial role in hydrology, meteorology and water resources management. An insight view of long-term variation in evaporation will help understanding the effects of climate change and provide useful information for rational utilization of water resources, especially in the arid land where the shortage of water resources exists. However, the lack of data on evaporation led to difficulties in assessing the impacts of climate change on evaporation, especially in arid mountainous area. This study investigated the long-term variation of the pan-evaporation （Ep） measured by E601 type evaporation pan and its influencing climatic factors at both northern and southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in xinjiang of China using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and Path analysis. The results revealed that Eps at both northern and southern slopes had obvious interdecadal variation within cycles of 3-4 and 7-8 years. Eps at both slopes sharply decreased in early 1980s, but increased after late 1990s. Path analysis showed that the 3-4 years cycle of Ep at the northern and southern slopes was mainly dependent upon actual water vapor pressure with a negative direct path coefficient of-0.515 and sunshine duration with a positive direct path coefficient of 0.370, respectively. The variation of Ep with cycle of 7-8 years at the northern slope was attributed to the wind speed with a direct path coefficient of 0.774. Average temperature had a direct path coefficient of 0.813 in 7-8 years cycle at the southern slope. The assessment of Ep variation and its causes provides information essential for a good understanding of hydrologic cycle and regional climate of arid mountainous regions in xinjiang of China and offers a theoretical reference for distribution and utilization of water resources.

关键词： interdecadal variation pan-evaporation Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition path analysis Tianshan Mountains

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A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin

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Journal of arid Land 2013年第1期5卷 118-131页

作者： ShanShan DAI LanHai LI HongGang XU XiangLiang PAN XueMei LI Faculty of Hospitality and Tourism Management Macao University of Science and Technology Macao 999078 China State key laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China xinjiang key lab of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China School of Tourism Management Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China

The Manas River Basin in xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the te

关键词： water resources management sustainable development system dynamics modeling water stress arid river basin

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Impact of climate factors on runoff in the Kaidu River watershed:path analysis of 50-year data

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Journal of arid Land 2011年第2期3卷 132-140页

作者： XueMei LI LanHai LI LingPeng GUO FeiYun ZHANG Suwannee ADSAVAKULCHAI Ming SHANG xinjiang laboratory of water cycle and utilization in arid zone Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Acad-emy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China School of Engineering University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Bangkok 10400 Thailand

Runoff formation is a complex meteorological-hydrological process impacted by many factors,especially in the inland river *** on the data of daily mean air temperature,precipitation and runoff during the period of 1958-2007 in the Kaidu River watershed,this paper analyzed the changes in air temperature,precipitation and runoff and revealed the direct and indirect impacts of daily air temperature and precipitation on daily runoff by path *** results showed that mean temperature time series of the annual,summer and autumn had a significant fluctuant increase during the last 50 years（P 0.05）.Only winter precipitation increased significantly（P 0.05） with a rate of 1.337 mm/*** annual and winter runoff depthes in the last 50 years significantly increased with the rates of 7.11 mm/10a and 1.85 mm/10a,*** driving function of both daily temperature and precipitation on daily runoff in annual and seasonal levels is significant in the Kaidu River watershed by correlation *** result of path analysis showed that the positive effect of daily air temperature on daily runoff depth is much higher than that of daily precipitation in annual,spring,autumn and winter,however,the trend is opposite in summer.

关键词： climate factors runoff formation inland river Kaidu River watershed path analysis

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Spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of the intensity of agricultural water footprint in xinjiang, China

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International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering 2023年第3期16卷 262-272页

作者： Yanyun Wang Aihua Long Xiaoya Deng Abuduaini Abulizi Jie Wang Pei Zhang Yang Hai Cai Ren Ji Zhang Yundong Liu Weiming Zhao Postdoctoral Workstation China ReinsuranceBeijing 100032China State key laboratory of water cycle Simulation and Regulation Department of Water ResourcesChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijing 100038China College of water Conservancy and Architectural Engineering Shihezi UniversityShihezi832003XinjiangChina Aketao County water Conservancy Bureau of Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture 845500XinjiangChina Hunan Institute of water Resources and Hydropower Research Changsha 410001China

xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,the largest agricultural high-efficiency water-saving arid area in China,was adopted to explore the coupling relationship between agricultural water consumption and economic benefits,which is of great significance to guiding the efficient utilization and sustainable development of agricultural water *** study utilizes an indicator,termed the Agricultural water Footprint Intensity(short as AWFI,which means the amount of water resource consumed per unit of agricultural GDP),to study the economic benefits of agricultural water in xinjiang from *** addition,the Theil index,a measure of the imbalance between individuals or regions,was used to study the evolution in the spatial differences in water efficiency,and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method was applied to quantify the factors driving the *** results showed that AWFI in xinjiang has experienced three stages:obvious decline,stable and slow decline,which decreased from 16114 m^(3)/10^(4) CNY to 2100 m^(3)/10^(4) CNY,decreasing by 86.97%.The Theil index indicated that the spatial evolution of 14 prefectures(cities)resembled an inverted N-shaped Kuznets curve over *** the influencing factors,the contributions of water-saving technology and planting structure to the change in the AWFI in xinjiang,China from 1991 to 2018 were 154.03%and−37.98%,*** total contribution to AWFI of the total population,urbanization rate,and production scale was−16.06%.This study concluded that further improvements in the economic benefits of agricultural water consumption can be obtained by continuing to promote more efficient or“water-conservation”irrigation technologies(engineering aspects),adjusting the planting structure(policy guidance aspects),and intensive management of cultivated land(management aspects).

关键词： agricultural water footprint intensity theil index logarithmic mean divisia index xinjiang

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