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Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation:Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise

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infectious disease Modelling 2024年第1期9卷 263-277页

作者： Nanina Anderegg Mariette Slabbert Kholi Buthelezi Leigh F.Johnson centre for infectious disease epidemiology and Research School of Public HealthUniversity of Cape TownSouth Africa Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine University of BernSwitzerland Independent Consultant PretoriaSouth Africa National Sex Workers Movement in South Africa

Introduction:In sub-Saharan Africa,accurate estimates of the HIV epidemic in female sex workers are crucial for effective prevention and care *** estimates are typically derived from mathematical models that assume certain demographic and behavioural characteristics like age and duration of sex work to remain constant over *** reviewed this assumption for female sex workers in South ***:We reviewed studies that reported estimates on either the age or the duration of sex work among female sex workers in South *** used Bayesian hierarchical models to synthesize reported estimates and to study time *** a simulation exercise,we also investigated the potential impact of the"constant age and sex work duration"-assumption on estimates of HIV ***:We included 24 different studies,conducted between 1996 and 2019,contributing 42 estimates on female sex worker age and 27 estimates on sex work *** was evidence suggesting an increase in both the duration of sex work and the age of female sex workers over *** to the fitted models,over each decade the expected duration of sex work increased by 55.6%(95%-credible interval[CrI]:23.5%–93.9%)and the expected age of female sex workers increased by 14.3%(95%-CrI:9.1%–19.1%).Over the 23-year period,the predicted mean duration of sex work increased from 2.7 years in 1996 to 7.4 years in 2019,while the predicted mean age increased from 26.4 years to 32.3 *** for these time trends in the simulation exercise resulted in a notable decline in estimated HIV incidence rate among sex workers over *** decline was significantly more pronounced than when assuming a constant age and duration of sex ***:In South Africa,age and duration of sex work in female sex workers increased over *** this trend might be influenced by factors like expanding community mobilization and improved rights advocacy,the ongoing criminalisation,stigmatisation of s

关键词： Female sex workers Mathematical modelling South Africa HIV

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Small mammal community composition impacts bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) population dynamics and associated seroprevalence of Puumala orthohantavirus

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Integrative Zoology 2024年第1期19卷 52-65页

作者： Felicitas Maria BUJNOCH Daniela REIL Stephan DREWES Ulrike MROSENFELD Rainer G.ULRICH Jens JACOB Christian IMHOLT Julius Kühn-Institute Federal Research Centre for Cultivated PlantsInstitute for Epidemiology and Pathogen DiagnosticsRodent ResearchMünsterGermany University of Münster Institute for Evolution and BiodiversityMünsterGermany Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut Federal Research Institute for Animal HealthInstitute of Novel and Emerging Infectious DiseasesGreifswald-Insel RiemsGermany

Rodents are important reservoirs for zoonotic pathogens that cause diseases in *** is hypoth-esized to be closely related to pathogen prevalence through multiple direct and indirect *** example,the presence of non-host species can reduce contact rates of the main reservoir host and thus reduce the risk of transmission(“dilution effect”).In addition,an overlap in ecological niches between two species could lead to increased interspecific competition,potentially limiting host densities and reducing density-dependent pathogen transmission *** this study,we investigated the relative impact of population-level regulation of direct and indirect drivers of the prevalence of Puumala orthohantavirus(PUUV)in bank voles(Clethrionomys glareolus)during years with high *** compiled data on small mammal community composition from four regions in Germany between 2010 and *** equation modeling revealed a strong seasonality in PUUV control mechanisms in bank *** abundance of shrews tended to have a negative relationship with host abundance,and host abundance positively influenced PUUV seroprevalence,while at the same time increasing the abundance of competing non-hosts like the wood mouse(Apodemus sylvaticus)and the yellow-neckedfield mouse(Apodemusflavicollis)were associated with reduced PUUV seroprevalence in the *** results indicate that for PUUV in bank voles,dilution is associated with increased interspecific *** pressures leading to the decline of Apodemus *** a specific habitat could lead to the amplification of mechanisms promoting PUUV transmission within the host populations.

关键词： bank vole biodiversity Puumala orthohantavirus small mammals

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Nonconserved epitopes dominate reverse preexisting T cell immunity in COVID-19 convalescents

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Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy 2024年第7期9卷 2984-2998页

作者： Xin Wang Jie Zhang Maoshun Liu Yuanyuan Guo Peipei Guo Xiaonan Yang Bingli Shang Min Li Jinmin Tian Ting Zhang Xi Wang Ronghua Jin Jikun Zhou George F.Gao Jun Liu Department of epidemiology School of Public HealthCheeloo College of MedicineShandong UniversityJinan 250012China NHC Key Laboratory of Biosafety Research Unit of Adaptive Evolution and Control of Emerging VirusesChinese Academy of Medical SciencesNational Institute for Viral Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(China CDC)Beijing 102206China Beijing Key Laboratory of Emerging infectious diseases Institute of Infectious DiseasesBeijing Ditan HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing 100015China Beijing Institute of infectious diseases Beijing 100015China National Center for infectious diseases Beijing Ditan HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing 100015P.R.China School of Laboratory Medicine and Life Sciences Wenzhou Medical UniversityWenzhou 325035China School of Ophthalmology&Optometry Wenzhou Medical UniversityWenzhou 325027China Collaborative Innovation centre of Regenerative Medicine and Medical BioResource Development and Application Co-constructed by the Province and Ministry Guangxi Medical UniversityNanningGuangxi 530021China Shijiazhuang Fifth Hospital Shijiazhuang 050011China CAS Key Laboratory of Pathogen Microbiology and Immunology Institute of MicrobiologyChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101China Savaid Medical School University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 is continuously consolidated across the world during the ongoing ***,the potential function of the nonconserved epitopes in the reverse preexisting cross-reactivity induced by SARS-CoV-2 to other human coronaviruses is not well *** our research,we assessed T cell responses to both conserved and nonconserved peptides shared by SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV,identifying cross-reactive CD8^(+)T cell epitopes using enzyme-linked immunospot and intracellular cytokine staining ***,in vitro refolding and circular dichroism were performed to evaluate the thermal stability of the HLA/peptide ***,single-cell T cell receptor reservoir was analyzed based on tetramer ***,we discovered that cross-reactive T cells targeting SARS-CoV were present in individuals who had recovered from COVID-19,and identified SARS-CoV-2 CD8^(+)T cell epitopes spanning the major structural antigens.T cell responses induced by the nonconserved peptides between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV were higher and played a dominant role in the cross-reactivity in COVID-19 ***-T cell reactivity was also observed within the identified series of CD8^(+)T cell *** representative immunodominant peptide pairs,although the HLA binding capacities for peptides from SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV were similar,the TCR repertoires recognizing these peptides were *** results could provide beneficial information for the development of peptide-based universal vaccines against coronaviruses.

关键词： immunity conserved assessed

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Treatment and prevention of epilepsy in onchocerciasis-endemic areas is urgently needed

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infectious diseases of Poverty 2024年第1期13卷 85-89页

作者： Robert Colebunders Joseph Nelson Siewe Fodjo Olivia Kamoen Luis-Jorge Amaral Amber Hadermann Chiara Trevisan Mark J.Taylor Julia Gauglitz Achim Hoerauf Yasuaki Sato Katja Polman Maria-Gloria Basanez Dan Bhwana Thomson Lakwo Gasim Abd-Elfarag Sebastien D.Pion Global Health Institute University of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium Department of Neurology Heilig Hart ZiekenhuisLierBelgium Department of Public Health Institute of Tropical MedicineAntwerpBelgium Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine LiverpoolUK Department of Computer Science University of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium Institute of Medical Microbiology Immunology and ParasitologyUniversity Hospital BonnBonnGermany German Center for Infection Research(DZIF) Partner Site Bonn-CologneBonnGermany School of Global Humanities and Social Sciences Nagasaki UniversityNagasakiJapan MRC centre for Global infectious disease Analysis and London centre for Neglected Tropicaldisease Research Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologySchool of Public HealthImperial College LondonLondonUK National Institute for Medical Research TangaTanzania Vector Control Division Ministry of HealthKampalaUganda School of Public Health University of JubaJubaSouth Sudan Access for Humanity JubaSouth Sudan French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development MontpellierFrance

Background There is increasing epidemiological evidence supporting the association between onchocerciasis and seizures, reinforcing the concept of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE). The aim of this paper is to provide an update on the new knowledge about OAE and to propose recommendations to the World Health Organization how to address this public health *** text During the 2nd International Workshop on OAE held on 19-21 September, 2023, in Antwerp, Belgium, participants recognised OAE as a substantial yet neglected public health problem, particularly in areas of sub-Saharan Africa where onchocerciasis remains hyperendemic. Evidence from prospective population-based studies suggest that strengthening onchocerciasis elimination efforts leads to a significant reduction of OAE incidence. There is a need to validate an OAE case definition to estimate the burden of disease and identify onchocerciasis-endemic areas requiring intensification of onchocerciasis elimination programmes and integration of epilepsy care. It is expected that raising awareness about OAE will boost the population uptake of ivermectin. The implementation of a community-based epilepsy treatment programme offering free anti-seizure medications (ASMs) has shown high effectiveness in reducing the frequency of seizures and improving the overall quality of life of people with *** To reduce OAE burden, enhanced collaboration between onchocerciasis and mental health programmes at community, national, and international levels is required. Urgent efforts are needed to ensure the uninterrupted provision of free ASMs in onchocerciasis-endemic areas. Furthermore, OAE should be included in the quantification of the onchocerciasis disease burden.

关键词： Onchocerciasis Morbidity Burden of disease Prevention Ivermectin Epilepsy Nodding syndrome Treatment Children Policy

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Wastewater Surveillance Provides Spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics

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Engineering 2024年第9期40卷 70-77页

作者： Xiawan Zheng Kathy Leung Xiaoqing Xu Yu Deng Yulin Zhang Xi Chen Chung In Yau Kenny W.K.Hui Eddie Pak Ho-Kwong Chui Ron Yang Hein Min Tun Gabriel Matthew Leung Joseph Tsz Kei Wu Malik Peiris Leo Lit Man Poon Tong Zhang Environmental Microbiome Engineering and Biotechnology Lab Center for Environmental Engineering ResearchDepartment of Civil EngineeringThe University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China WHO Collaborating centre for infectious disease epidemiology and Control School of Public HealthLi Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Litd.(D24H) Hong Kong 999077China The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital Hong Kong 999077China School of Public Health Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China HKU-Pasteur Research Pole The University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Drainage Services Department The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative RegionHong Kong 999077China Environmental Protection Department The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative RegionHong Kong 999077China The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China

Wastewater surveillance(WWS)can leverage its wide coverage,population-based sampling,and high monitoring frequency to capture citywide pandemic trends independent of clinical *** we conducted a nine months daily WWS for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARSCoV-2)from 12 wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs),covering approximately 80%of the population,to monitor infection dynamics in Hong Kong,*** found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus concentration in wastewater was correlated with the daily number of reported cases and reached two pandemic peaks three days earlier during the study *** addition,two different methods were established to estimate the prevalence/incidence rates from wastewater *** estimated results from wastewater were consistent with findings from two independent citywide clinical surveillance programmes(rapid antigen test(RAT)surveillance and serology surveillance),but higher than the cases number reported by the centre for Health Protection(CHP)of Hong Kong,***,the effective reproductive number(R_(t))was estimated from wastewater measurements to reflect both citywide and regional transmission *** findings demonstrate that large-scale intensive WWS from WWTPs provides cost-effective and timely public health information,especially when the clinical surveillance is inadequate and *** approach also provides insights into pandemic dynamics at higher spatiotemporal resolutions,facilitating the formulation of effective control policies and targeted resource allocation.

关键词： SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater surveillance Prevalence Effective reproductive number

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Redefining pandemic preparedness:Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases,workshop report

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infectious disease Modelling 2024年第2期9卷 501-518页

作者： Marta C.Nunes Edward Thommes Holger Fröhlich Antoine Flahault Julien Arino Marc Baguelin Matthew Biggerstaff Gaston Bizel-Bizellot Rebecca Borchering Giacomo Cacciapaglia Simon Cauchemez Alex Barbier--Chebbah Carsten Claussen Christine Choirat Monica Cojocaru Catherine Commaille-Chapus Chitin Hon Jude Kong Nicolas Lambert Katharina B.Lauer Thorsten Lehr Cédric Mahe Vincent Marechal Adel Mebarki Seyed Moghadas Rene Niehus Lulla Opatowski Francesco Parino Gery Pruvost Andreas Schuppert Rodolphe Thiébaut Andrea Thomas-Bachli Cecile Viboud Jianhong Wu Pascal Crépey PascalCrepey Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens(CERP) Hospices Civils de Lyon(HCL)and Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie(CIRI)Équipe SantéPubliqueÉpidémiologie etÉcologieÉvolutive des Maladies Infectieuses(PHE3ID)Inserm U1111CNRS UMR5308ENS de LyonUniversitéClaude Bernard Lyon 1LyonFrance South African Medical Research Council Vaccines&Infectious Diseases Analytics Research UnitFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa New Products and Innovation(NPI) Sanofi Vaccines(Global)TorontoOntarioCanada Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of GuelphGuelphOntarioCanada Fraunhofer Institute for Algorithms and Scientific Computing(SCAI) Department of BioinformaticsSchloss BirlinghovenSankt AugustinGermany University of Bonn Bonn-Aachen International Center for IT(b-it)BonnGermany Institute of Global Health Faculty of MedicineUniversity of GenevaGenevaSwitzerland and Swiss School of Public HealthZürichSwitzerland Department of Mathematics University of ManitobaWinnipegManitobaCanada MRC centre for Global infectious disease Analysis School of Public HealthImperial College LondonLondonUK centre for Mathematical Modelling of infectious diseases Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyLondon School of Hygiene&Tropical MedicineLondonUK National Center for Immunization and Respiratory diseases(NCIRD) US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)AtlantaGAUSA Departement of Computational Biology Departement of Global HealthInstitut PasteurParisFrance Institut de Physique des Deux Infinis de Lyon(IP2I) UMR5822IN2P3/CNRSUniversitéClaude Bernard Lyon 1VilleurbanneFrance Mathematical Modelling of infectious diseases Unit Institut PasteurUniversitéParis CitéUMR2000 CNRSParisFrance Decision and Bayesian Computation Institut PasteurUniversitéParis CitéCNRS UMR 3571France Fraunhofer-Institute for Translational Medicine and Pharmacology HamburgGermany Institute of Global Health Faculty of MedicineUniversity of

In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 *** report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the *** workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data,social media,and wastewater *** advancements were noted in the development of predictive models,with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease *** role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed,advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic.A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing,which is crucial for global pandemic ***,the workshop underscored the need for robust,adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors,as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.

关键词： Modelling Covid-19 infectious diseases Pandemic preparedness Workshop

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Combatting anthrax outbreaks across Nigeria's national land borders: need to optimize surveillance with epidemiological surveys

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infectious diseases of Poverty 2024年第1期13卷 100-100页

作者： Hammed O.Mogaji Babatunde Adewale Stella I.Smith Ehimario U.Igumbor Chidumebi J.Idemili Andrew W.Taylor-Robinson Yale School of Public Health Yale University New Haven USA Parasitology and epidemiology Unit Federal University Oye-Ekiti Oye-Ekiti Nigeria Department of Public Health and epidemiology Nigerian Institute of Medical Research Lagos Nigeria Department of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology Nigerian Institute of Medical Research Lagos Nigeria centre for infectious disease Research Nigerian Institute of Medical Research Lagos Nigeria Department of Public Health Walter Sisulu University Mthatha South Africa Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation University of Toronto Toronto Canada College of Health Sciences Vin University Hanoi Vietnam Center for Global Health Perelman School of Medicine University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia USA

Background Anthrax is a non-contagious zoonotic disease caused by the Gram-positive,spore-forming bac-terium Bacillus *** is common in livestock and wild animals such as cattle,goats,sheep,camels,and *** humans,anthrax may occur after contact with contaminated carcasses or animal products like milk and *** best method to prevent anthrax in people is to ensure livestock are vaccinated,which significantly limits the risk of zoonotic spread to ***,the rate of vaccination of domesticated animals kept by nomadic pastoralists in West Africa is *** groups regularly cross over national boundaries with their grazing *** is a country that historically has done comparatively well to contain this public health ***,in 2023 several outbreaks of human disease appear linked to the consumption of anthrax-contaminated animal products brought into Nigeria by pastoralists from neighboring *** manifestations include skin sores or ulcers,nausea,vomiting,and *** article aims to raise awareness of recent outbreaks of anthrax in West Africa and to callfor a renewed focus on measures to combat this neglected public health concern to the *** body The imperative to pinpoint pivotal issues relating to the ongoing emergence of anthrax cases in Nigeria cannot be *** delving into the prevalence of anthrax in both livestock and human populations residing along Nigeria's borders,unraveling the genetic diversity and potential sources of *** strains,and identify-ing the primary animal host(s)responsible for transmission,we stand to enhance our understanding of this critical ***,investigating the multifaceted factors contributing to anthrax transmission,assessing community knowledge and practices,mapping common migratory routes of pastoralists,and formulating targeted interven-tion strategies tailored to the challenges of border communities,are each crucial steps towards eff

关键词： border Combat doubt

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Advances in technology for the laboratory diagnosis of individuals with HIV/AIDS coinfected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis

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Biosafety and Health 2024年第3期6卷 133-142页

作者： Jin Sun Xiaoxu Han Hongxia Yan Xin Zhang Taiyi Jiang Tong Zhang Hao Wu Grigory Kaminskiy Yingmin Ma Eduard Karamov Bin Su Beijing Key Laboratory for HIV/AIDS Research Clinical and Research Center for Infectious DiseasesBeijing Youan HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing 100069China State Health Organization Tula Regional Center for Control and Prevention of AIDS and infectious diseases Tula 300002Russia Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Beijing Youan HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing 100069China Gamaleya National Research centre for epidemiology and Microbiology of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation Moscow 123098Russia

The high morbidity and mortality rate of individuals with human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)coinfected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis(MTB)is a tough challenge for current global tuberculosis prevention and control ***/MTB coinfection is more complex than a single infection,and the interaction between the two diseases aggravates the deterioration caused by the disease,resulting in increased hospitalizations and *** screening and early diagnosis facilitate the timely initiation of anti-tuberculosis treatment in HIV/MTB coinfected individuals,thereby reducing transmission and the incidence of adverse *** date,pathogenic detection has remained the gold standard for diagnosing tuberculosis,but its sensitivity and specificity are greatly affected by the body's immune status,which limits its application in the diagnosis of HIV/MTB ***,immunology and molecular detection technology has developed *** detection technologies,such as interferon-γ release assays,interferon-gamma inducible protein 10,and GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay have overcome the limitations of traditional detection methods,significantly improved the sensitivity and specificity of tuberculosis diagnosis,and brought new hope to the detection of HIV/MTB *** this article,the principle,scope of application,and latest research progress of relevant detection methods are reviewed to provide a reference for the early diagnosis of HIV/MTB coinfection.

关键词： Human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) Mycobacterium tuberculosis(MTB)coinfection Mycobacterium tuberculosis(MTB) Early diagnosis

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The relationship between intimate partner violence and HIV:A model-based evaluation

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infectious disease Modelling 2017年第1期2卷 71-89页

作者： Simon W.Rigby Leigh F.Johnson centre for infectious disease epidemiology and Research University of Cape TownCape TownSouth Africa

Background:Many studies have shown that women who have experienced intimate partner violence(IPV)are at a greater risk of HIV,but the factors accounting for this association are unclear,and trials of interventions to reduce IPV have not consistently reduced HIV ***:This study uses an agent-based model,calibrated to South African data sources,to evaluate hypotheses about likely causal pathways linking IPV,HIV,and other confounding *** about associations between IPV and HIV risk behaviours were based on reviews of international ***:There is an association between past IPV experience and HIV incidence even when no causal effects are assumed(IRR 1.28,95%CI 1.23e1.34),because women with a propensity for multiple partners are more likely to have ever been in a relationship with a violent ***,in addition,men with a propensity for concurrent relationships are more likely to perpetrate IPV,the IRR increases to 1.42(95%CI 1.36e1.48),consistent with empirical IRR *** scenarios in which experience of IPV is assumed to cause changes in women's sexual behaviour have little effect on the *** intervention that reduces IPV by 50%could be expected to reduce HIV incidence by at most 1.3%.Interpretation:Much of the observed association between IPV and HIV is likely to be due to confounding behavioural *** interventions to reduce IPV are important,these interventions alone are unlikely to have a substantial impact on HIV incidence.

关键词： epidemiology Gender HIV Modelling Violence

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Public Awareness and Mask Usage during the COVID-19 Epidemic:A Survey by China CDC New Media

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Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2020年第8期33卷 639-645页

作者： SUN Cheng Xi HE Bin MU Di LI Pei Long ZHAO Hong Ting LI Zhi Li ZHANG Mu Li FENG Lu Zhao ZHENG Jian Dong CHENG Ying CUI Ying LI Zhong Jie Shandong Center for disease Control and Prevention Jinan 250014ShandongChina Health Communication Center Chinese Centre for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China Division of infectious disease Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious DiseaseChinese Centre for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China Division of epidemiology National Center for AIDS/STD Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China

An online survey conducted March 18–19,2020 on the official China CDC WeChat account platform was used to evaluate the effect of public education about masks usage during the new coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)*** nationals older than 18 were eligible for the *** survey collected 5,761 questionnaires from the 31 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions of China's Mainland.99.7%and 97.2%of the respondents answered correctly that respiratory droplets and direct contact were the main transmission routes.73.3%of the respondents considered COVID-19 to be‘serious’or‘very serious’.

关键词： mainland autonomous education

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