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Added Benefit of the Early-Morning-Orbit Satellite Fengyun-3E on the Global Microwave Sounding of the Three-Orbit Constellation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第1期41卷 39-52页

作者： Juan LI Zhengkun QIN Guiqing LIU Jing HUANG CMA Earth System Modeling and prediction Centre Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Joint center for Data Assimilation research and Applications School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

The three-orbit constellation can comprehensively increase the spatial coverage of polar-orbiting satellites,but the polar-orbiting satellites currently in operation are only mid-morning-orbit and afternoon-orbit ***-3E(FY-3E)was launched successfully on 5 July 2021 in *** an early-morning-orbit satellite,FY-3E can help form a complete three-orbit observation system together with the mid-morning and afternoon satellites in the current mainstream operational *** this study,we investigate the added benefit of FY-3E microwave sounding observations to the midmorning-orbit Meteorological Operational satellite-B(Met Op-B)and afternoon-orbit Fengyun-3D(FY-3D)microwave observations in the Chinese Meteorological Administration global forecast system(CMA-GFS).The results show that the additional FY-3E microwave temperature sounder-3(MWTS-3)and microwave humidity sounder-2(MWHS-2)data can increase the global coverage of microwave temperature and humidity sounding data by 14.8% and 10.6%,*** enables the CMA-GFS to achieve nearly 100% global coverage of microwave-sounding observations at each analysis ***,after effective quality control and bias correction,the global biases and standard deviations of the differences between observations and model simulations are also *** on the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A and the Microwave Humidity Sounder onboard Met Op-B,and the MWTS-2 and MWHS-2 onboard FY-3D,adding the microwave sounding data of FY-3E can further reduce the errors of analysis results and improve the global prediction skills of CMA-GFS,especially for the southern-hemisphere forecasts within 96 hours,all of which are significant at the 95% confidence level.

关键词： data assimilation microwave temperature sounder MWTS-3

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Clinical prediction of insufficient vaults after implantable collamer lens implantation

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International Journal of Ophthalmology(English edition) 2024年第7期17卷 1300-1306页

作者： Jun Zhu Dan Cheng Xue-Ying Zhu Fen-Fen Li Ye Yang Yu-Feng Ye national Clinical research center for Ocular Diseases Eye HospitalWenzhou Medical UniversityWenzhou 325027Zhejiang ProvinceChina

AIM:To determine the factors related to preoperative ocular characters that are predictive of insufficient vault(<250μm)after implantable collamer lens(ICL V4c;STAAR Surgical)***:The participants underwent ICL surgery and were divided into the low(<250μm)and normal(250-1000μm)vault groups based on the postoperative vault at *** preoperative biometric parameters and clinical outcomes were compared between the two *** relationship between the 3-month vault values and preoperative ocular parameters were evaluated by Generalized estimating ***:Sixteen(23 eyes)and 36 patients(63 eyes)were in the low and normal vault groups,*** implantation procedures were uneventful with no cataract formation in the early postoperative *** sulcusto-sulcus lens rise(STSL)and iris ciliary angle(ICA)were correlated with vault at 3mo after *** 0.1 mm increase in STSL was associated with 38.9μm decrease in the postoperative 3-month vault.A rise of 1 degree in ICA is associated with a reduction of 4μm in ***:Eyes with a narrow ciliary sulcus are associated with a higher rate of low vault after ICL implantation,suggesting a need for adjustments to the ICL size in these *** the characteristics of the ciliary sulcus contributes valuable information to predict low vault after surgery.

关键词： insufficient vault implantable collamer lens ciliary body posterior chamber

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Effect of Meteorological Data Assimilation on Regional Air Quality Forecasts over the Korean Peninsula

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Journal of Meteorological research 2024年第2期38卷 262-284页

作者： Yunjae CHO Hyun Mee KIM Eun-Gyeong YANG Yonghee LEE Jae-Bum LEE Soyoung HA Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yonsei UniversitySeoul 03722Republic of Korea Air Quality Forecasting center National Institute of Environmental ResearchIncheon 22689Republic of Korea national center for Atmospheric research BoulderCO 80305USA University of Maryland Baltimore County BaltimoreMD 21250USA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMD 20771USA

The Weather research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry(WRF-Chem),a type of online coupled chemistry-meteorology model(CCMM),considers the interaction between air quality and meteorology to improve air quality *** data assimilation(DA)can be used to reduce uncertainty in meteorological field,which is one factor causing prediction uncertainty in the *** this study,WRF-Chem and three-dimensional variational DA were used to examine the impact of meteorological DA on air quality and meteorological forecasts over the Korean *** nesting model domains were configured over East Asia(outer domain)and the Korean Peninsula(inner domain).Three experiments were conducted by using different DA domains to determine the optimal model domain for the meteorological *** the meteorological DA was performed in the outer domain or both the outer and inner domains,the root-mean-square error(RMSE),bias of the predicted particulate matter(PM)concentrations,and the RMSE of predicted meteorological variables against the observations were smaller than those in the experiment where the meteorological DA was performed only in the inner *** indicates that the improvement of the synoptic meteorological fields by DA in the outer domain enhanced the meteorological initial and boundary conditions for the inner domain,subsequently improving air quality and meteorological *** to the experiment without meteorological DA,the RMSE and bias of the meteorological and PM variables were smaller in the experiments with *** effect of meteorological DA on the improvement of PM predictions lasted for approximately 58-66 h,depending on the ***,the uncertainty reduction in the meteorological initial condition by the meteorological DA contributed to a reduction of the forecast errors of both meteorology and air quality.

关键词： meteorological data assimilation regional air quality forecast particulate matter concentration optimal model domain forecast error WRF-Chem

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Assimilation of GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper Flash Extent Density Data in GSI 3DVar, EnKF, and Hybrid En3DVar for the Analysis and Short-Term Forecast of a Supercell Storm Case

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 263-277页

作者： Rong KONG Ming XUE Edward R.MANSELL Chengsi LIU Alexandre O.FIERRO center for Analysis and prediction of Storms Norman Oklahoma 73072U.S.A University of Oklahoma Norman Oklahoma 73072U.S.A NOAA/national Severe Storms Laboratory NormanOklahoma 73072U.S A.4Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik Department of Forecasting Models-ZAMGVienna 1190Austria

Capabilities to assimilate Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite “R-series ”(GOES-R) Geostationary Lightning Mapper(GLM) flash extent density(FED) data within the operational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation ensemble Kalman filter(GSI-EnKF) framework were previously developed and tested with a mesoscale convective system(MCS) case. In this study, such capabilities are further developed to assimilate GOES GLM FED data within the GSI ensemble-variational(EnVar) hybrid data assimilation(DA) framework. The results of assimilating the GLM FED data using 3DVar, and pure En3DVar(PEn3DVar, using 100% ensemble covariance and no static covariance) are compared with those of EnKF/DfEnKF for a supercell storm case. The focus of this study is to validate the correctness and evaluate the performance of the new implementation rather than comparing the performance of FED DA among different DA schemes. Only the results of 3DVar and pEn3DVar are examined and compared with EnKF/DfEnKF. Assimilation of a single FED observation shows that the magnitude and horizontal extent of the analysis increments from PEn3DVar are generally larger than from EnKF, which is mainly caused by using different localization strategies in EnFK/DfEnKF and PEn3DVar as well as the integration limits of the graupel mass in the observation operator. Overall, the forecast performance of PEn3DVar is comparable to EnKF/DfEnKF, suggesting correct implementation.

关键词： GOES-R lightning data assimilation EnKF EnVar

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Numerical Simulation on Production Trials by Using Depressurization for Typical Marine Hydrate Reservoirs:Well Type and Formation Dip

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第3期23卷 661-675页

作者： QIN Fanfan SUN Jiaxin GU Yuhang CAO Xinxin MAO Peixiao NING Fulong JIANG Guosheng national center for International research on Deep Earth Drilling and Resource Development Faculty of EngineeringChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Laboratory for Marine Mineral Resources Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China

Natural gas hydrate has huge reserves and is widely distributed in marine *** commercial development is of great significance for alleviating the contradiction between energy supply and *** an efficient research method,numerical simulation can provide valuable insights for the design and optimization of hydrate ***,most of the current production models simplify the reservoir as a two-dimensional(2D)horizontal layered model,often ignoring the impact of formation dip *** improve the accuracy of production prediction and provide theoretical support for the optimization of production well design,two three-dimensional(3D)geological models with different dip angles based on the geological data from two typical sites are *** vertical well,horizontal well and multilateral wells are deployed in these reservoirs with different permeabilities to perform production trial,and the sensitivity analysis of dip angles is also carried *** short-term production behaviors in high and low permeability reservoirs with different dip angles are *** simulation results show that 1)the gas and water production behaviors for different well types in the two typical reservoirs show obviously different variation laws when the short-term depressurization is conducted in the inclined formation;2)the inclined formation will reduce the gas production and increase the water extraction,and the phenomena becomes pronounced as the dip angle increases,particularly in the low-permeability reservoirs;3)and the impact of formation dip on hydrate recovery does not change significantly with the variation of well type.

关键词： natural gas hydrate inclined formation depressurization production well type

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Understanding the Low Predictability of the 2015/16 El Niño Event Based on a Deep Learning Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1313-1325页

作者： Tingyu WANG Ping HUANG Xianke YANG center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China national Space Science center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China State Key Laboratory of Space Weather National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China College of Plant Science and Technology Huazhong Agricultural UniversityWuhan 430070China

The 2015/16 El Niño event ranks among the top three of the last 100 years in terms of intensity,but most dynamical models had a relatively low prediction skill for this event before the summer ***,the attribution of this particular event can help us to understand the cause of super El Niño–Southern Oscillation events and how to forecast them *** present study applies attribute methods based on a deep learning model to study the key factors related to the formation of this event.A deep learning model is trained using historical simulations from 21 CMIP6 models to predict the Niño-3.4 *** integrated gradient method is then used to identify the key signals in the North Pacific that determine the evolution of the Niño-3.4 *** crucial signals are then masked in the initial conditions to verify their roles in the *** addition to confirming the key signals inducing the super El Niño event revealed in previous attribution studies,we identify the combined contribution of the tropical North Atlantic and the South Pacific oceans to the evolution and intensity of this event,emphasizing the crucial role of the interactions among them and the North *** approach is also applied to other El Niño events,revealing several new precursor *** study suggests that the deep learning method is useful in attributing the key factors inducing extreme tropical climate events.

关键词： ENSO attribution deep learning ENSO prediction extreme El Niño

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Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s national Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 767-776页

作者： Guo DENG Xueshun SHEN Jun DU Jiandong GONG Hua TONG Liantang DENG Zhifang XU Jing CHEN Jian SUN Yong WANG Jiangkai HU Jianjie WANG Mingxuan CHEN Huiling YUAN Yutao ZHANG Hongqi LI Yuanzhe WANG Li GAO Li SHENG Da LI Li LI Hao WANG Ying ZHAO Yinglin LI Zhili LIU Wenhua GUO China Meteorological Administration Earth System Modeling and prediction Centre Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China national Meteorological center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Environmental Modeling center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA College ParkMD 20740USA Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Tsinghua University Beijing 100084China

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and *** made providing meteorological services for this event particularly *** China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical *** key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was *** of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in *** meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and *** included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 *** 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting *** accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the *** program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather

关键词： Beijing Winter Olympic Games CMA national forecasting system data assimilation ensemble forecast bias correction and downscaling machine learning-based fusion methods

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Local Torrential Rainfall Event within a Mei-Yu Season Mesoscale Convective System:Importance of Back-Building Processes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 847-863页

作者： Honglei ZHANG Ming XUE Hangfeng SHEN Xiaofan LI Guoqing ZHAI Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences Hangzhou 310017China center for Analysis and prediction of Storms and School of MeteorologyUniversity of OklahomaNormanOklahoma 73072USA Department of Atmospheric Science School of Earth SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310027China Hangzhou Weather Bureau Hangzhou 310007China

An extreme rainfall event occurred over Hangzhou,China,during the afternoon hours on 24 June *** event occurred under suitable synoptic conditions and the maximum 4-h cumulative rainfall amount was over 150 *** rainfall event had two major *** was caused by a quasi-stationary convective line,and the other by a backbuilding convective line related to the interaction of the outflow boundary from the first rainband and an existing low-level mesoscale convergence line associated with a mei-yu frontal *** rainfall event lasted 4 h,while the back-building process occurred in 2 h when the extreme rainfall center *** far,few studies have examined the back-building processes in the mei-yu season that are caused by the interaction of a mesoscale convergence line and a convective cold *** two rainbands are successfully reproduced by the Weather research and Forecasting(WRF)model with fourlevel,two-way interactive *** the model,new cells repeatedly occur at the west side of older cells,and the backbuilding process occurs in an environment with large CAPE,a low LFC,and plenty of water *** from older cells enhance the low-level convergence that forces new *** precipitation efficiency of the back-building training cells leads to accumulated precipitation of over 150 *** experiments without evaporation of rainwater show that the convective cold pool plays an important role in the organization of the back-building process in the current extreme precipitation case.

关键词： torrential rainfall back-building processes numerical simulation trigger mechanism convergence line convective cold pool

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UniBind:a novel artificial intelligence-based prediction model for SARS-CoV-2 infectivity and variant evolution

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Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy 2024年第1期9卷 14-15页

作者： Qihong Yan Jincun Zhao State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory DiseaseGuangzhou Institute of Respiratory Healththe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityGuangzhouChina

In a recent study published in Nature Medicine,Wang et *** an excellent framework called UniBind based on artificial intelligence(AI),which enables accurately predicting infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 variants and evolutionary trends of future viral variants.1 This computational method holds the possibility to not only serve as a valuable early-warning tool for monitoring potential pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 variants but also facilitate fundamental research on protein-protein interactions(PPIs).

关键词： artificial Bind prediction

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Pulses in ground motions identified through surface partial matching and their impact on seismic rocking consequence

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earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2024年第1期23卷 35-50页

作者： Tang Yuchuan Wang Jiankang Wu Gang School of Civil Engineering Southeast UniversityKey Laboratory of Concrete and Prestressed Concrete Structures of the Ministry of EducationNanjing 211102China national and Local Joint Engineering research center for Intelligent Construction and Maintenance Nanjing 211102China

In seismology and earthquake engineering,it is fundamental to identify and characterize the pulse-like features in pulse-type ground *** capture the pulses that dominate structural responses,this study establishes congruence and shift relationships between response spectrum surfaces.A similarity search between spectrum surfaces,supplemented with a similarity search in time series,has been applied to characterize the pulse-like features in pulse-type ground *** identified pulses are tested in predicting the rocking consequences of slender rectangular blocks under the original ground ***,the prediction is promising for the majority of the ground motions where the dominant pulse is correctly identified.

关键词： velocity pulse ground motion surface similarity rocking overturning

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