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Relationships between Terrain Features and forecasting Errors of Surface Wind Speeds in a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1161-1170页

作者： Wenbo XUE Hui YU Shengming TANG Wei HUANG Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408China Shanghai typhoon Institute/cma Shanghai 200030China Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone/cma Shanghai 200030China

Numerical weather prediction(NWP)models have always presented large forecasting errors of surface wind speeds over regions with complex *** this study,surface wind forecasts from an operational NWP model,the SMS-WARR(Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System),are analyzed to quantitatively reveal the relationships between the forecasted surface wind speed errors and terrain features,with the intent of providing clues to better apply the NWP model to complex terrain *** terrain features are described by three parameters:the standard deviation of the model grid-scale orography,terrain height error of the model,and slope *** results show that the forecast bias has a unimodal distribution with a change in the standard deviation of *** minimum ME(the mean value of bias)is 1.2 m s^(-1) when the standard deviation is between 60 and 70 m.A positive correlation exists between bias and terrain height error,with the ME increasing by 10%−30%for every 200 m increase in terrain height *** ME decreases by 65.6%when slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to larger than 3.5°for uphill winds but increases by 35.4%when the absolute value of slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to(2.5°−3.5°)for downhill *** sensitivity experiments are carried out with a model output statistical(MOS)calibration model for surface wind speeds and ME(RMSE)has been reduced by 90%(30%)by introducing terrain parameters,demonstrating the value of this study.

关键词： surface wind speed terrain features error analysis MOS calibration model

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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the cma-TRAMS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 20-28页

作者：李梦婕陈子通戴光丰田群梁卓轩林青张艳霞 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China State Key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China Guangdong Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510641 China

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon *** updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(cma-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the cma-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the cma-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the cma-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the cma-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

关键词： cma-TRAMS cyclogenesis numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone

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Predicting PM_(2.5) Concentration in the Yangtze River Delta Region Using Climate System Monitoring Indices and Machine Learning

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 249-261页

作者： Jinghui MA Shiquan WAN Shasha XU Chanjuan WANG Danni QIU Shanghai typhoon Institute Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030 Key laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-Ocean-Iice System for Weather and Climate Ministry of EducationDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438 Shanghai Key laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030 Yangzhou Meteorological Office Yangzhou 225001 Department of Physics Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225003

Changing meteorological conditions during autumn and winter have considerable impact on air quality in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)*** climatic factors,such as sea surface temperature and sea ice,together with the atmospheric circulation,directly affect meteorological conditions in the YRD region,thereby modulating the variation in atmospheric PM_(2.5) *** study used the evolutionary modeling machine learning technique to investigate the lag relationship between 144 climate system monitoring indices and autumn/winter PM_(2.5) concentration over 0-12 months in the YRD *** calculating the contribution ratios and lagged correlation coefficients of all indices over the previous 12 months,the top 36 indices were selected for model ***,the nine indices that contributed most to the PM_(2.5) concentration in the YRD region,including the decadal oscillation index of the Atlantic Ocean and the consistent warm ocean temperature index of the entire tropical Indian Ocean,were selected for physical mechanism *** evolutionary model was developed to forecast the average PM_(2.5) concentration in major cities of the YRD in autumn and winter,with a correlation coefficient of *** model testing,the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed PM_(2.5) concentrations was in the range of 0.73-0.83 and the root-mean-square error was in the range of 9.5-11.6μg m-3,indicating high predictive *** model performed exceptionally well in capturing abnormal changes in PM_(2.5) concentration in the YRD region up to 50 days in advance.

关键词： PM_(2.5)concentration machine learning evolutionary modeling seasonal prediction

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NUMERICAL ANALYSIS ON THE ROLE OF TROPICAL STORM NAMTHEUN IN THE UNUSUAL TRACKS OF THREE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2010

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2014年第4期20卷 297-307页

作者：白莉娜马雷鸣曾智华黄伟王栋梁 Shanghai typhoon Institute Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast TechniqueCMA

Tropical cyclones(TCs) Lionrock,Kompasu,and Namtheun were formed successively within 40 hours in *** the next several days afterwards,these TCs exhibited unusual movements which made operational prediction *** are performed on the forecasts of the tracks of these TCs with six operational models,including three global and three regional *** showed that the trends of TC tracks could be reproduced by these models,whereas trajectory turning points and landfall locations were not simulated *** special track of Lionrock should be associated with its direct interaction with Namtheun,according to a conceptual model of binary TC *** contrast,the relation between Kompasu and Namtheun satisfied the criteria for a semi-direct *** experiments based on the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone forecast Model(GRAPES-TCM) further confirmed the effect of Namtheun on the unusual tracks of Lionrock and ***,the physical mechanism of binary TC interaction was preliminarily proposed.

关键词： binary tropical cyclone interaction typhoon operat

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Statistics for Size and Radial Wind Profile of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第1期25卷 104-112页

作者：鲁小琴余晖雷小途 Shanghai typhoon Institute/laboratory of typhoon forecast technique CMA

The 6-yr best-track data of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the western North Pacific are used to study the statistical features of TC size and radial wind profile. A TC size is defined as the azimuthal mean radius of 34-kt surface wind. On average, the TCs in the western North Pacific have a size of 203 km, and the size is larger for stronger TCs. Further analyses show that larger TCs tend to move faster than smaller ones, with a 23–24 km difference in size corresponding to a difference of about 10 km h -1 in moving speed. The TCs that recurve from westward to eastward moving have a mean size of 218 km, significantly larger than that of those without a turning point （179 km）. Regional TC distributions demonstrate that the TCs affecting the Korean Peninsula and southwestern Japan have the largest mean size （250–280 km）. There are also some large TCs affecting southern Philippines, while TCs over the South China Sea are generally small in size. Comparison of intensity and size of all TCs during their lifespan demonstrates that a TC tends to reach its maximum size 6 h after it reaches its maximum intensity, and the decrease rate of size during the weakening stage of a TC is much smaller than the increase rate of size during its developing stage. Thus, linear regression relations between TC size and intensity are established for its developing and weakening stages respectively, which can be used as a forecast tool for TC size. Features of TC radial wind profile are studied by analyzing a parametric wind model based on the radius data of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt surface winds. The results show that the shape parameter d most frequently takes the values of 0.3, 0.4, and 0.5. It generally increases （decreases） as the TC develops （weakens）, implying a sharper （flatter） radial wind profile. Changes in d leads the tendency of intensity. The two parameters for the asymmetric model, namely p and q, are mostly 0.85–1.05 and 0–0.2, respectively, embodying the fact that the asymmetric comp

关键词： size radial wind profile tropical cyclone

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Relation of the Second Type Thermal Helicity to Precipitation of Landfalling typhoons:A Case Study of typhoon Talim

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第2期25卷 224-237页

作者：喻自凤余晖 Shanghai typhoon Institute/laboratory of typhoon forecast technique CMA

This study utilized the MM5 mesoscale model to simulate the landfalling process of typhoon *** simulated typhoon track,weather patterns,and rainfall process are consistent with the *** the simulation results,the relation of the second type thermal helicity（H2） to rainfall caused by the landfalling typhoon Talim was *** results show that H2 could well indicate the heavy inland rainfall but it did not perform as well as the helicity in predicting rainfall during the beginning stage of the typhoon *** particular,H2 was highly correlated with rainfall of Talim at 1-h lead *** 1-5-h lead time,it also had a higher correlation with rainfall than the helicity did,and thus showing a better potential in forecasting rainfall *** analyses have shown that when Talim was in the beginning stage of landfall,1） the 850-200-hPa vertical wind shear around the Talim center was quite small（about 5 m s-1）;2） the highest rainfall was to the right of the Talim track and in the area with a 300-km radius around the Talim center,exhibiting no obvious relation to low-level temperature advection,low-level air convergence,and upper-level divergence;3） the low-level relative vorticity reflected the rainfall change quite well,which was the main reason why helicity had a better performance than H2 in this ***,after Talim moved inland further,1） it weakened gradually and was increasingly affected by the northern trough;2） the vertical wind shear was enhanced as well;3） the left side of the down vertical wind shear lay in the Lushan and Dabieshan mountain area,which could have contributed to triggering a secondary vertical circulation,helping to produce the heavy rainfall over there;hence,H2 showed a better capacity to reflect the rainfall change during this stage.

关键词： second type thermal helicity typhoon rainfall diagnosis

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DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第2期18卷 127-134页

作者：雷小途汤杰许晓林占瑞芬于润玲黄荣成吴联要 Shanghai typhoon Institute and laboratory of typhoon forecast technique CMA Guangxi Meteorological Observatory

Intensity variation of tropical cyclones(TCs),especially that of coastal or landfalling TCs,is of great concern in current *** of the research papers,however,focus on intensification processes of TCs;only a few discuss decay processes in the lifetime of a *** the daily weather operation related to TCs,it is challenging when a TC weakens and/or disappears suddenly,because it brings more difficulties than the forecast of intensifying TCs *** of a decaying landfalling TC would lead to over-preparation of defensive measures and result in"crying wolf"mentality with adverse *** study summarized physical mechanisms that dominate the decaying process of TCs and listed several possible dynamical factors:reduced level of air temperature,too large or too small speed,contraction of TC size amplification of TC's core,and lightning number in a TC.

关键词： tropical cyclone offshore intensity decay

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ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF LANDING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EAST CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2013年第2期19卷 145-153页

作者：鲁小琴赵兵科 laboratory of typhoon forecast technique Shanghai Typhoon Institute China MeteorologicalAdministration Shanghai typhoon Institute CMA

The intensity, landing time, track trend and intensity variation of tropical cyclones (TCs) afterlandfall are analyzed using the TCs data (of best track from the China Meteorological Administration)between 1949 and 2006 for the western North Pacific and South China Sea. The trend differences of trackand intensity between the TCs that directly land in East China and those making the second landfall in EastChina after landing in Taiwan Island are categorically discussed. The results show that the first kind oflanding TCs are more likely to go northward or turn while the second kind of TCs have a larger tendency tokeep going northwest. The intensity of the first kind of TCs is more persistent than the second one. There isa higher percentage for the intensity to be weakened significantly if the TCs keep going west to northwest orsouthwest after landing.

关键词： tropical cyclone climatic characteristics landing in China

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AN ENSEMBLE forecast EXPERIMENT OF A LANDING typhoon

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第3期18卷 314-321页

作者：谭燕梁旭东 Shanghai typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration(cma) laboratory of typhoon forecast technique/cma Institute of Urban Meteorology of cma

Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall was selected for the study and the breeding of growing mode(BGM) method was used to perturb the initial conditions of the vortex field and the environment *** results of the experiment indicate that each member had a different initial status in BGM processing and they show a reasonable spread among members along with the forecast *** in the large-scale field,thermodynamic structure,and spread among members took place when Wipha made *** steering effect of the large-scale field and the interaction between the thermodynamics and the dynamics resulted in different tracks of the ***,the forecast uncertainty *** summary,the ensemble mean did not perform as well as the control forecast,but the cluster mean provided some useful information,and performed better than the control in some *** position error was 34 km for 24 h forecast,153 km for 48 h forecast,and 191 km for 66 h *** strike probability chart qualitatively described the forecast uncertainty.

关键词： landing typhoon ensemble forecast GRAPES-TCM breeding of growing mode method cluster analysis

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Verification of tropical cyclones(TC)wind structure forecasts from global NWP models and ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2022年第2期11卷 88-102页

作者： Xiaoqin Lu Wai Kin Wong Kin Chung Au-Yeung Chun Wing Choy Hui Yu Shanghai typhoon Institute and laboratory of typhoon forecast technique China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina

forecasting wind structure of tropical cyclone(TC)is vital in assessment of impact due to high winds using Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)*** usual verification technique on TC wind structure forecasts are based on grid-to-grid comparisons between forecast field and the actual ***,precision of traditional verification measures is easily affected by small scale errors and thus cannot well discriminate the accuracy or effectiveness of NWP model *** this study,the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE),which has been widely adopted in verifying precipitation fields,is utilized in TC’s wind field verification for the first *** TC wind field forecast of deterministic NWP model and Ensemble Prediction System(EPS)of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather forecasts(ECMWF)over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2020 were evaluated.A MODE score of 0.5 is used as a threshold value to represent a skillful(or good)*** is found that the R34(radius of 34 knots)wind field structure forecasts within 72 h are good regardless of DET or *** performance of R50 and R64 is slightly worse but the R50 forecasts within 48 h remain good,with MODE exceeded *** R64forecast within 48 h are worth for reference as well with MODE of around *** study states that the TC wind field structure forecast by ECMWF is skillful for TCs over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea.

关键词： Verification Tropical cyclones wind structure forecasts Numerical weather prediction models Ensemble prediction system

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