AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST EXPERIMENT OF A LANDING TYPHOON

作     者：谭燕 梁旭东 

作者机构：Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique/CMA Institute of Urban Meteorology of CMA 

出 版 物：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 (热带气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第18卷第3期

页      面：314-321页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421500) Shanghai Science and Technology Program (10231203700) National Natural Science Foundation of China (40921160381) 

主　　题：landing typhoon ensemble forecast GRAPES-TCM breeding of growing mode method cluster analysis 

摘      要：Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which Typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall was selected for the study and the breeding of growing mode(BGM) method was used to perturb the initial conditions of the vortex field and the environment *** results of the experiment indicate that each member had a different initial status in BGM processing and they show a reasonable spread among members along with the forecast *** in the large-scale field,thermodynamic structure,and spread among members took place when Wipha made *** steering effect of the large-scale field and the interaction between the thermodynamics and the dynamics resulted in different tracks of the ***,the forecast uncertainty *** summary,the ensemble mean did not perform as well as the control forecast,but the cluster mean provided some useful information,and performed better than the control in some *** position error was 34 km for 24 h forecast,153 km for 48 h forecast,and 191 km for 66 h *** strike probability chart qualitatively described the forecast uncertainty.