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Variation of Surface temperature during the Last millennium in a Simulation with the FGOALS-gl Climate System model

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第3期30卷 699-712页

作者：张洁 Laurent LI 周天军辛晓歌 State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences laboratoire de météorologie dynamique/CNRS Université Paris 6 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-gl） developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）. the model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced during the wintertime at higher latitudes. this may be a manifestation of polar amplification associated with sea-ice-temperature positive feedback. the climate responses to total external forcings can explain about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period, especially at decadal timescales. Surface temperature in the Antarctic shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due to the strong internal variability. the model response to specified external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing （CRF）. the CRF acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by a decrease in cloud amount in the ant hropogenic- forcing-dominant period.

关键词： last millennium external forcing surface temperature cloud radiative forcing climate system model

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Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Autumn Drought trend over China from 1961 to 2014

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Journal of meteorological Research 2022年第2期36卷 251-260页

作者： Xuyu ZHANG Jinhua YU Laurent ZXLI Wei LI Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China laboratoire de météorologie dynamique Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75252France

Understanding the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought is of great significance to the prevention of its adverse *** drought indices,standardized precipitation index(SPI)and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),are used here for the detection and attribution of autumn droughts in China,and for the exploration of the role played by the anthropogenic climate *** is only related to precipitation,but SPEI involves both precipitation and potential *** their trend’s spatial patterns,the historical simulations(including all forcings,noted as ALL)from 11 models of the Coupled model Intercomparison Project phase 6,as an ensemble,are able to reproduce their observational *** shows wetting trend in the north of 35°N and drying trend in the *** shows drying trend in almost whole *** drying trend in historical simulations ALL is significantly stronger,compared with the counterpart from the accompanying simulations(called NAt)with only natural forcings *** result clearly indicates that anthropogenic climate change plays a dominant role in the enhancement of autumn drought in China.A more rigorous detection work is also performed with the signal’s fingerprint of ALL(and NAt)projected onto the observation and assessed with the background noise from no external-forcing control *** trend pattern signal in ALL is significantly detected in observation for both SPI and SPEI,with a more pronounced signal in SPEI than in SPI,while the signal of NAt is not detected for neither SPI nor ***,extreme droughts(with indices beyond-2)are assessed in terms of probability ratio between ALL and *** is shown that the anthropogenic precipitation change plays a leading role in the south of 35°N,while the anthropogenic temperature change leads in the north.

关键词： drought anthropogenic effect detection and attribution standardized precipitation index(SPI)and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)

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Intercomparison of multi-model ensemble-processing strategies within a consistent framework for climate projection in China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第9期66卷 2125-2141页

作者： Huanhuan ZHU Zhihong JIANG Laurent LI Wei LI Sheng JIANG Panyu ZHOU Weihao ZHAO tong LI Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China laboratoire de météorologie dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75005France School of mathematics and Statistics Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Climate change adaptation and relevant policy-making need reliable projections of future *** based on multi-model ensemble are generally considered as the most efficient way to achieve the ***,their efficiency varies and inter-comparison is a challenging task,as they use a variety of target variables,geographic regions,time periods,or model ***,we construct and use a consistent framework to evaluate the performance of five ensemble-processing methods,i.e.,multimodel ensemble mean(mmE),rank-based weighting(RANK),reliability ensemble averaging(REA),climate model weighting by independence and performance(ClimWIP),and Bayesian model averaging(BmA).We investigate the annual mean temperature(tav)and total precipitation(Prcptot)changes(relative to 1995–2014)over China and its seven subregions at 1.5 and 2℃warming levels(relative to pre-industrial).All ensemble-processing methods perform better than mmE,and achieve generally consistent results in terms of median *** they show different results in terms of inter-model spread,served as a measure of uncertainty,and signal-to-noise ratio(SNR).ClimWIP is the most optimal method with its good performance in simulating current climate and in providing credible future *** uncertainty,measured by the range of 10th–90th percentiles,is reduced by about 30%for tav,and 15%for Prcptot in China,with a certain variation among *** on ClimWIP,and averaged over whole China under 1.5/2℃global warming levels,tav increases by about 1.1/1.8℃(relative to 1995–2014),while Prcptot increases by about 5.4%/11.2%,*** of projections is found dependent on investigated regions and *** projection for tav is credible across all regions,as its SNR is generally larger than 2,while the SNR is lower than 1 for Prcptot over most regions under 1.5℃*** largest warming is found in northeastern China,with increase of 1.3(0.6–1.7)/2.0(1.4–2.6)℃(ensemble’s median and range

关键词： multi-model ensemble simulation Ensemble-processing strategy Global warming targets Climate projection uncertainty assessment Regional climate change in China

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Paleoclimate and Paleoenvironment of Gonghe Basin, Qinghai-tibet Plateau, During the Lastdeglacial: Weathering, Erosion and Vegetation Cover Affect Clay mineral Formation

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2014年第2期88卷 647-660页

作者： SUN Qingfeng Christophe COLIN Faculty of Geography Northwest Normal University laboratoire des Interactions et dynamique des Environnements de Surface (IdeS) UMR 8148CNRS Université de Paris-Sud

With the analysis of the sources and formation mechanism of the clay minerals in the sediment core from the Dalianhai lake in the Gonghe Basin,northeastern tibet-Qinghai Plateau,clay mineral composition proxies,grain-size and carbonate contents have been employed for high-resolution study in order to reconstruct East Asian Summer monsoon （EASm） over the northeastern tibet-Qinghai Plateau during the *** study also extended to establish a relationship between vegetation cover changes and erosion during the last 14.5 ka with pollen record and clay mineral ***/kaolinite and smectite/（illite＋chlorite） ratios allow us to assess hydrolysis conditions in lowlands and/or physical erosion process in highlands of the Gonghe *** 12.9 Cal ka BP,both mineralogical ratios show low values indicative of strong physical erosion in the basin with a dominant cold and dry *** 12.9 Cal ka BP,an increase in both mineralogical ratios indicates enhanced chemical weathering in the basin associated with a warm and humid *** beginning of Holocene is characterized by high smectite/（illite＋chlorite） and smectite/kaolinite ratios that is synchronous as with deposition of many peat laminae,implying the best warm and humid conditions specifically between 8.0 to 5.5 Cal ka *** time interval after 5.0 Cai ka BP is characterized by a return to high physical erosion and low chemical weathering with dry climate conditions in the *** variations of clay mineral assemblages with previous pollen results,we observe a rapid response in terms of chemical weathering and physical erosion intensity to a modification of the vegetation cover in the basin.

关键词： clay minerals vegetation Gonghe Basin tibet-Qinghai Plateau Asian monsoon Holocene

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Review of Chinese atmospheric science research over the past 70 years: Climate and climate change

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第10期62卷 1514-1550页

作者： Jianping HUANG Wen CHEN Zhiping WEN Guangjun ZHANG Zhaoxin LI Zhiyan ZUO Qingyun ZHAO College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou730000China Center for monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100190China department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai200438China Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of CaliforniaSan Diego92093USA laboratoire de météorologie dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéParis75005France Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing100081China

Climate and climate change have always been a research focus of atmospheric sciences. this paper summaries research efforts, achievements and international contributions of the Chinese scientific community on climate and climate change over the past 70 years. the review is based on papers published officially in national or international scientific journals,and is organized to cover six aspects:(1) general climate studies;(2) impact of the Qinghai-tibetan Plateau;(3) impact of the East Asian monsoon;(4) influences of teleconnection oscillation and westerlies;(5) climate dynamics and development of climate models;and(6) climate change. It is, however, to be noted that the present review can not be considered as an exhaustive one, since there is a huge body of literature in the field.

关键词： Climate of China Qinghai-tibetan Plateau East Asian monsoon Climate change

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Diagnosing the Dynamic and thermodynamic Effects for the Exceptional 2020 Summer Rainy Season in the Yangtze River Valley

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Journal of meteorological Research 2022年第1期36卷 26-36页

作者： Na WEN Shujie LIU Laurent Z.X.LI College of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Qingdao Engineering technology Research Center for meteorological Disaster Prevention Qingdao Meteorological BureauQingdao 266003China laboratoire de météorologie dynamique Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75252France

An exceptional rainy season occurred in the Yangtze River valley of eastern China in June-July *** relative importance of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on this unusual event is evaluated through the budget equations of moisture and moist static energy(mSE).the moisture budget analysis suggests that the thermodynamic effect contributes to the precipitation anomaly by 8.5%through the advection of abnormal water vapor by mean vertical motion,while the dynamic effect,related to water vapor advection by anomalous vertical motion,has the dominant *** mSE budget analysis further reveals that the anomalous vertical motion is both constrained by the dynamic effect related to changes in atmospheric circulation and the thermodynamic effect related to changes of the atmospheric thermal state,with a ratio of thermodynamic versus total effects estimated at 45.3%.the dynamic effect is linked to the advection of warm and humid air by the abnormal southwesterly wind,which is related with an anomalous anticyclone over the Philippine *** thermodynamic effect is partly induced by the positive advection of anomalous mSE(mainly latent energy)by the mean vertical *** analysis of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects is useful to understand the underlying physical mechanisms leading to the unusual rainy season in the Yangtze River valley in summer *** is also helpful to put forward a few speculations on the potential role of global warming whose primary effect is,after all,to change the thermal state of the atmosphere.

关键词： exceptional rainfall Yangtze River valley global warming dynamic and thermodynamic effects

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Does CmIP6 Inspire more Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第10期37卷 1119-1132页

作者： Huanhuan ZHU Zhihong JIANG Juan LI Wei LI Cenxiao SUN and Laurent LI Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China laboratoire de météorologie dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75005France

Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961–2005,the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled model Intercomparison Project(CmIP6),and 30 models from phase 5 of CmIP(CmIP5),are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual *** CmIP6 multi-model ensemble mean(CmIP6-mmE)can simulate well the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature,maximum daily maximum temperature,and minimum daily minimum ***,CmIP6-mmE has difficulties in reproducing cold nights and warm days,and has large cold biases over the tibetan *** performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices is generally lower than in simulating temperature *** to CmIP5,CmIP6 models show improvements in the simulation of climate indices over *** is particularly true for precipitation indices for both the climatological pattern and the interannual variation,except for the consecutive dry *** arealmean bias for total precipitation has been reduced from 127%(CmIP5-mmE)to 79%(CmIP6-mmE).the most striking feature is that the dry biases in southern China,very persistent and general in CmIP5-mmE,are largely reduced in *** ascent together with more abundant moisture can explain this reduction in dry *** biases for total precipitation,heavy precipitation,and precipitation intensity in the eastern tibetan Plateau are still present in CmIP6-mmE,but smaller,compared to CmIP5-mmE.

关键词： CmIP6 CmIP5 intercomparison climate extremes

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Dynamic characteristics of a cyclic-periodic structure with a piezoelectric network

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2015年第5期28卷 1426-1437页

作者： Li Lin deng Pengcheng Fan Yu School of Energy and Power Engineering Beihang University Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Aero-Engine laboratoire de tribologie et dynamique des Systemes Ecole Centrale de Lyon – 36Avenue Guy de Collongues Ecully 69134 France

this paper deals with a cyclic-periodic structure with a piezoelectric network. In such a system, there is not only mechanical connection but also electrical connection between adjacent periodic sectors. the objective is to learn whether the presence of a piezoelectric network would change the dynamic characteristics of the system. the background of the research is about vibration reduction of a bladed disk in an aero-engine, and the system is simulated by a lumped parameter model. the dynamic equations of the system are derived, and then the analytical solution corresponding to the eigenvalue problem is given. the vibration responses to single traveling wave excitations （EO excitations） and multiple traveling wave excitations （NEO excitations） are studied. the results show that the presence of a piezoelectric network would change the natural frequencies of the system compared with those of the system with the piezoelectric shunt circuit. the forced response is sensitive to the connection type and the elements of the network. An energy analysis of the electro-mechanical coupling system has been performed to understand its dynamic behavior, and the following conclusion is obtained： a vibration reduction to excitations whose primary har- monic component is not zero can be achieved by a parallel piezoelectric network, while a reduction to other excitations should be based on a series piezoelectric network.

关键词： Cyclic-periodic structures Electro-mechanical dynamicbehavior Energy analysis Piezoelectric networks Vibration reduction

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multi-model Ensemble Projection of Precipitation Changes over China under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2℃ with Consideration of model Performance and Independence

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Journal of meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 184-197页

作者： tong LI Zhihong JIANG Lilong ZHAO Laurent LI Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEmD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/CIC-FEMDNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China laboratoire de météorologie dynamique L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace(IPSL)Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique(CNRS)Sorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75005France

A weighting scheme jointly considering model performance and independence(PI-based weighting scheme) is employed to deal with multi-model ensemble prediction of precipitation over China from 17 global climate models. Four precipitation metrics on mean and extremes are used to evaluate the model performance and independence. the PIbased scheme is also compared with a rank-based weighting scheme and the simple arithmetic mean(Am) scheme. It is shown that the PI-based scheme achieves notable improvements in western China, with biases decreasing for all parameters. However, improvements are small and almost insignificant in eastern China. After calibration and validation, the scheme is used for future precipitation projection under the 1.5 and 2℃ global warming targets(above preindustrial level). there is a general tendency to wetness for most regions in China, especially in terms of extreme precipitation. the PI scheme shows larger inhomogeneity in spatial distribution. For the total precipitation PRCPtOt(95 th percentile extreme precipitation R95 P), the land fraction for a change larger than 10%(20%) is 22.8%(53.4%)in PI, while 13.3%(36.8%) in Am, under 2℃ global warming. most noticeable increase exists in central and east parts of western China.

关键词： model performance and independence multi-model ensemble mean and extreme precipitation future projection 1.5 and 2℃global warming

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Hysteresis and the nonlinear equivalent piezoelectric coefficient of mFCs for actuation

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2017年第1期30卷 88-98页

作者： Xue Zheng Li Lin m.N.Ichchou Li Chao School of Energy and Power Engineering Beihang University Beijing China Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Aero-Engine Beijing China laboratoire de tribologie et dynamique des Systemes (LtDS) UMR 5513 Ecole Centrale de Lyon Ecully France

the hysteretic behavior and nonlinearity of the equivalent material coefficient of macro fiber composites（mFC） under staircase input conditions are investigated using the Preisach *** on a database of first order reversal curves, formulas are derived to predict the hysteresis of strain output and nonlinearity of the equivalent piezoelectric coefficient of mFCs. Formulae are verified by comparing the predicted strains with the measured strains of three mFC specimens,which are driven by a random sequence of staircase voltage inputs. the coefficients obtained by the formulae and experimentation coincide. Further results indicate that the equivalent piezoelectric strain coefficient depends greatly on the value of drive voltage across the entire input range, and the coefficient is asymmetric across the negative and positive input ranges. deflection testing of an mFC composite cantilever demonstrates the importance of taking the nonlinearity of the equivalent piezoelectric coefficient into consideration in the application of actuation.

关键词： Hysteresis macro fiber composite Nonlinear piezoelectric coef-ficients Piezoelectric materials Preisach model

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