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Agent-based model of land system:Theory,application and modelling framework

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2020年第10期30卷 1555-1570页

作者： DAI Erfu MA Liang YANG Weishi WANG Yahui YIN Le TONG Miao Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem research station Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and ModelingInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

Land change science has become an interdisciplinary research direction for understanding human-natural coupling *** a process-oriented modelling approach,agent based model(ABM)plays an important role in revealing the driving forces of land change and understanding the process of land *** paper starts from three aspects:The theory,application and modeling framework of ***,we summarize the theoretical basis of ABM and introduce some related *** we expound the application and development of ABM in both urban land systems and agricultural land systems,and further introduce the case study of a model on Grain for Green Program in Hengduan Mountainous region,*** the basis of combing the ABM modeling protocol,we propose the land system ABM modeling framework and process from the perspective of *** terms of urban land use,ABM research initially focused on the study of urban expansion based on landscape,then expanded to issues like urban residential separation,planning and zoning,ecological functions,*** terms of agricultural land use,ABM application presents more diverse and individualized *** topics include farmers’behavior,farmers’decision-making,planting systems,agricultural policy,*** to traditional models,ABM is more complex and difficult to generalize beyond specific context since it relies on local knowledge and ***,due to its unique bottom-up model structure,ABM has an indispensable role in exploring the driving forces of land change and also the impact of human behavior on the environment.

关键词： land system land use land change science land change model agent-based model modeling framework

An investigation on application potentiality of microstructure heat sinks with different flow topological morphology

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2022年第12期65卷 2895-2909页

作者： YAO XiaoLe SHI QianLei LIU Qian QIN Le JU Xing XU Chao Key Laboratory of Power station Energy Transfer Conversion and System of MOE North China Electric Power UniversityBeijing 102206China

Microstructure heat sinks have great potential for high heat flux *** this paper,we compared microchannel(MC),micro-pin-fin(MPF),manifold microchannel(MMC),and manifold micro-pin-fin(MMPF)heat sinks to figure out the pros and *** flow and manifold unit models are used to study thermal and hydrodynamic *** heat sinks with different channel/fin sizes,manifold numbers,and porosities are discussed according to the pressure drop,temperature,thermal resistance,and coefficient of *** show that MMC and MMPF heat sinks are superior to MC and MPF heat sinks,and there are also differences between MMC and MMPF heat ***,the MMPF heat sink has lower maximum temperature,temperature non-uniformity,and total thermal resistance R_(tot).In contrast,the MMC heat sink has a lower pressure drop and higher *** the MMPF heat sink,at the nozzle width of 6.75μm and the MPF width of 70.71μm(porosity=0.167),it achieves the lowest total thermal resistance of R_(tot)=2.97×10^(-6)K m^(2)/*** 10^(3)W/cm^(2)heat flux,the maximum surface temperature rise is 29.74 K,and the maximum temperature difference of the heating surface is 3.15 *** research initially provides a clear reference on the selection of single-phase cooling microstructures for ultra-high heat flux dissipation.

关键词： heat sink topology manifold microchannel micro-pin-fin high heat flux

Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2014年第4期8卷 457-471页

作者： Shuyan LIU Xin-Zhong LIANG Wei GAO Thomas J. STOHLGREN Earth System Science interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland College Park MD 20740 USA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Maryland College Park MD 20740 USA Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability Colorado State University Fort Collins CO 80523 USA Fort Collins Science Center U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins CO 80526 USA

Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model （hereafter GCM-based models） and a downscaled Regional Climate Model （hereafter, RCM-based models）. We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present （1990-1999） to the future （2046- 2055）. RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM- based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa （Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk）, GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

关键词： climate change species distribution model,Maxent downscaling

Constraining Brans–Dicke Cosmology with the CSST Galaxy Clustering Spectroscopic Survey

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research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2022年第5期22卷 190-198页

作者： Anda Chen Yan Gong Fengquan Wu Yougang Wang Xuelei Chen Key Laboratory of Space Astronomy and Technology National Astronomical ObservatoriesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China School of Astronomy and Space Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Science Center for China Space station Telescope National Astronomical ObservatoriesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Computational Astrophysics National Astronomical ObservatoriesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Center for High Energy Physics Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China

The Brans-Dicke(BD)theory is the simplest Scalar-Tensor theory of gravity,which can be considered as a candidate of modified Einstein’s theory of general *** this work,we forecast the constraints on BD theory in the CSST galaxy clustering spectroscopic survey with a magnitude limit~23 AB mag for point-source 5σ*** generate mock data based on the zCOSMOS catalog and consider the observational and instrumental effects of the CSST spectroscopic *** predict galaxy power spectra in the BD theory from z=0 to 1.5,and the galaxy bias and other systematical parameters are also *** Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique is employed to find the best-fits and probability distributions of the cosmological and systematical parameters.A BD parameterζis introduced,which satisfiesζ=In(1+(1/ω)).We find that the CSST spectroscopic galaxy clustering survey can give|ξ|O(10^(2))and|■/G|<10^(-13),under the assumptionζ=*** constraints are almost at the same order of magnitude compared to the joint constraints using the current cosmic microwave background,baryon acoustic oscillations and TypeⅠa supernova data,indicating that the CSST galaxy clustering spectroscopic survey would be powerful for constraining the BD theory and other modified gravity theories.

关键词： cosmology -cosmological models -cosmological parameters from large-scale structure

Effects of spatial and temporal weather data resolutions on streamflow modeling of a semi-arid basin,Northeast Brazil

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International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering 2015年第3期8卷 125-139页

作者： Danielle de Almeida Bressiani Raghavan Srinivasan Charles Allan Jones Eduardo Mario Mendiondo University of São Paulo-U SP Engineering School of São Carlos-EESCSHS13566-590São Carlos/SPBrazil Department of Ecosystem Science and Management SSLTexas A&M University(TAMU)College StationTX 77843U SA Brazilian Cente r of Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters CEMADEN/MCTISão Josédos Campos/SP12247-016Brazil

One major difficulty in the application of distributed hydrological models is the availability of data with sufficient quantity and quality to perform an adequate evaluation of a watershed and to capture its *** Soil&Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)was used in this study to analyze the hydrologic responses to different sources,spatial scales,and temporal resolutions of weather inputs for the semi-arid Jaguaribe watershed(73000 km2)in northeastern *** different simulations were conducted,based on four groups of weather and precipitation inputs:Group 1-SWAT Weather Generator based on monthly data from four airport weather stations and daily data based on 124 local rain gauges;Group 2-daily local data from 14 weather stations and 124 precipitation gauges;Group 3-Daily values from a global coupled forecast model(NOAA’s Climate Forecast System Reanalysis-CFSR);and Group 4-CFSR data with 124 local precipitation *** four simulations were evaluated using multiple statistical efficiency metrics for four streamflow gauges,using:Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient(NSE),determination coefficient(R2),the ratio of the root mean square to the standard deviation of the observed data(RSR),and the percent bias(PBIAS).The Group 4 simulation performed best overall(provided the best statistical values)with results ranked as“good”or“very good”on all four efficiency metrics suggesting that using CFSR data for weather parameters other than precipitation,coupled with precipitation data from local rain gauges,can provide reasonable hydrologic *** second best results were obtained with Group 1,which provided“good”results in three of four efficiency *** 2 performed worse overall than Groups 1 and 4,probably due to uncertainty related to daily measures and a large percentage of missing *** 2 and 3 were“unsatisfactory”according to three or four of the efficiency metrics,indicating that the choice of weather data is very important.

关键词： climate data resolution hydrology SWAT model semi-arid basin Brazil

R eview of Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)applications in Brazil:C hallenges and prospects

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International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering 2015年第3期8卷 9-35,F0002,I0001页

作者： Danielle de Almeida Bressiani Philip W.Gassman Josimar Gurgel Fernandes Luis Hamilton Pospissil Garbossa Raghavan Srinivasan Nadia Bernard i Bonumá Eduardo Mario Mendiondo University of São Paulo EESCSHS-São Carlos/SP 13566-590Brazil Department of Ecosystem Science and Management SSLTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationTX 77843USA Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University-AmesIA 50011-1070USA Agronomic Institute of Pernambuco-IPA-Recife/PE 50761-000Brazil Federal University of Pernambuco-UFPE-Recife/PE 50670-901Brazil Santa Catarina Agricultural research and Extension Corporation-Epagri/Ciram-Florianópolis/SC 88034-901Brazil Federal University of Santa Catarina-UFSC-Florianópolis/SC 88040-900Brazil Brazilian Center of Monitoring and Early Wa rning of Natural Disasters CEMADEN/MCTISão Josédos Campos/SP12247-016 Brazil

The geographical extent of Brazil exceeds 8.5 million km2 and encompasses a complex mix of biomes and other environmental *** decision support tools are needed to help support management of these diverse Brazilian natural resources including ecohydrological *** use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)ecohydrological watershed-scale model in Brazil has increased greatly during the past *** over 100 SWAT studies were identified in this review which have been published during 1999 to 2015 in Brazilian and international journals,conference proceedings,and as theses or dissertations,many of which are written in *** majority of these studies(102 total)are reviewed here as part of an extensive survey covering the 1999 to 2013 time *** and spatial distributions,a summary of hydrologic calibration and validation results and a synopsis of the types of applications that were performed are reported for the surveyed studies.A smaller subset of recent Brazilian studies published in English between 2012 and 2015 in scientific journals are also reviewed,with emphasis on hydrologic and sediment transport testing results as well as scenario applications that were *** majority of the surveyed SWAT studies was performed for watersheds located in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil(67%)and was conducted in the context of academic *** 50%of the surveyed studies reported only hydrologic *** trends were found for the subset of more recent English *** studies have been reported that describe applications of SWAT in Brazil by private firms or government agencies;this review indicates that the potential exists for increased numbers of such studies in the ***,there is evidence that a lack of accessibility to adequate quality input data is a possible hindrance to the more general use of SWAT for watershed applications in Brazil.

关键词： SWAT models mapping applications review Brazil

The interdependent networked community resilience modeling environment(IN-CORE)

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Resilient Cities and Structures 2023年第2期2卷 57-66页

作者： John W.van de Lind Jamie Kruse Daniel T.Cox Paolo Gardoni Jong Sung Lee Jamie Padgett Therese P.McAllister Andre Barbosa Harvey Cutler Shannon Van Zandt Nathanael Rosenheim Christopher M.Navarro Elaina Sutley Sara Hamideh Harold H.Short Endowed Chair Professor and Co-Director Center of Excellence for Risk-Based Community Resilience PlanningDepartment of Civil and Environmental EngineeringColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCO80523USA Co-Director Center of Excellence for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning and THCAS Distinguished ProfessorDepartment of EconomicsEast Carolina UniversityGreenvilleNC27858USA CH2M Hill Professor in Civil Engineering School of Civil and Construction EngineeringOregon State UniversityCorvallisOR97331USA Alfredo H.Ang Family Professor and Excellence Faculty Scholar Department of Civil and Environmental Engineeringand DirectorMid-America Earthquake(MAE)CenterUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignChampaignIL61820USA Deputy Associate Director National Center for Supercomputing ApplicationsUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignChampaignIL61820USA Professor and Chair Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringRice UniversityHoustonTX77005USA Acting Chief Materials and Structural Systems DivisionNational Institute of Standards and TechnologyGaithersburgMD20899USA Professor Department of EconomicsColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCO80523USA Professor School of ArchitectureLandscape Architecture&Urban PlanningTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationTX77843USA research Associate Professor Landscape Architecture&Urban PlanningTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationTX77843USA Lead research Software Engineer National Center for Supercomputing ApplicationsUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignChampaignIL61820USA Associate Professor and Associate Dean for Diversity EquityInclusionand BelongingDepartment of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of KansasLawrenceKansasUSA Associate Professor State University of New York-Stony BrookSchool of Marine and Atmospheric SciencesStony BrookNew YorkUSA

In 2015,the U.S National Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST)funded the Center of Excellence for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning(CoE),a fourteen university-based consortium of almost 100 col-laborators,including faculty,students,post-doctoral scholars,and NIST *** paper highlights the scientific theory behind the state-of-the-art cloud platform being developed by the CoE-the interdisciplinary Networked Community Resilience Modeling Environment(IN-CORE).IN-CORE enables communities,consul-tants,and researchers to set up complex interdependent models of an entire community consisting of people,businesses,social institutions,buildings,transportation networks,water networks,and electric power networks and to predict their performance and recovery to hazard scenario events,including uncertainty propagation through the chained *** modeling environment includes a detailed building inventory,hazard scenario models,building and infrastructure damage(fragility)and recovery functions,social science data-driven house-hold and business models,and computable general equilibrium(CGE)models of local *** important aspect of IN-CORE is the characterization of uncertainty and its propagation throughout the chained models of the *** illustrative examples of community testbeds are presented that look at hazard impacts and recovery on population,economics,physical services,and social *** overview of the IN-CORE technology and scientific implementation is described with a focus on four key community stability areas(CSA)that encompass an array of community resilience metrics(CRM)and support community resilience informed *** testbed within IN-CORE has been developed by a team of engineers,social scientists,urban planners,and *** models,begin with a community description,i.e.,people,businesses,buildings,infras-tructure,and progresses to the damage and loss of functions caused by a hazard scenario

关键词： IN-CORE Community Resilience Natural hazards Disasters Risk Uncertainty propagation Decision-support Mitigation Adaptation Tornado Tsunami Earthquake Hurricane

Aerosol Optical Properties and Radiative Impacts in the Pearl River Delta Region of China during the Dry Season

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第2期35卷 195-208页

作者： Boru MAI Xuejiao DENG Zhanqing LI Jianjun LIU Xiang'ao XIA Huizheng CHE Xia LIU Fei LI Yu ZOU Maureen CRIBB Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510640 China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China Earth System Science interdisciplinary Center and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Maryland College Park Maryland MD 20740 USA Laboratory for Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China School of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 511430 China

Aerosol optical properties and direct radiative effects on surface irradiance were examined using seven years （2006-2012） of Cimel sunphotometer data collected at Panyu--the main atmospheric composition monitoring station in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region of China. During the dry season （October to February）, mean values of the aerosol optical depth （AOD） at 550 nm, the Angstrom exponent, and the single scattering albedo at 440 nm （SSA） were 0.54, 1.33 and 0.87, respectively. About 90% of aerosols were dominated by fine-mode strongly absorbing particles. The size distribution was bimodal, with fine-mode particles dominating. The fine mode showed a peak at a radius of 0.12 μm in February and October （- 0.10 μm3 μm-2）. The mean diurnal shortwave direct radiative forcing at the surface, inside the atmosphere （FATM）, and at the top of the atmosphere, was -33.4± 7.0, 26.1 ± 5.6 and -7.3 ±2.7 W m-2, respectively. The corresponding mean values of aerosol direct shortwave radiative forcing per AOD were -60.0 ±7.8, 47.3 ± 8.3 and -12.8 ±3.1 W m-2, respectively. Moreover, during the study period, FATM showed a significant decreasing trend （p 〈 0.01） and SSA increased from 0.87 in 2006 to 0.91 in 2012, suggesting a decreasing trend of absorbing particles being released into the atmosphere. Optical properties and radiative impacts of the absorbing particles can be used to improve the accuracy of inversion algorithms for satellite-based aerosol retrievals in the PRD region and to better constrain the climate effect of aerosols in climate models.

关键词： aerosol properties radiative forcing Pearl River Delta region dry season

Constraints on Dark Energy from the CSST Galaxy Clusters

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research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2023年第4期23卷 110-120页

作者： Yufei Zhang Mingjing Chen Zhonglue Wen Wenjuan Fang CAS Key Laboratory for research in Galaxies and Cosmology Department of AstronomyUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China School of Astronomy and Space Science University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China CAS Key Laboratory of FAST NAOCChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

We study the potential of the galaxy cluster sample expected from the Chinese Space station Telescope(CSST)survey to constrain dark energy *** modeling the distribution of observed cluster mass for a given true mass to be log-normal and adopting a selection threshold in the observed mass M_(200m)≥0.836×10^(14)h^(-1)M_(⊙),we find about 4.1×10^(5)clusters in the redshift range 0≤z≤1.5 can be detected by the *** construct the Fisher matrix for the cluster number counts from CSST,and forecast constraints on dark energy parameters for models with constant(w_(0)CDM)and time dependent(w_(0)w_(a)CDM)equation of *** the self-calibration scheme,the dark energy equation of state parameter w_(0)of the w_(0)CDM model can be constrained toΔw_(0)=*** w_(a)is added as a free parameter,we obtainΔw_(0)=0.077 andΔw_(a)=0.39 for the w_(0)w_(a)CDM model,with a Figure of Merit for(w_(0),w_(a))of *** we have perfect knowledge of the observable-mass scaling relation("known SR"scheme),we would obtainΔw_(0)=0.012 for the w_(0)CDM model,andΔw_(0)=0.062 andΔw_(a)=0.24 for the w_(0)w_(a)CDM *** dark energy Figure of Merit of(w_(0),w_(a))increases to *** indicates again the importance of calibrating the observable-mass scaling relation for optically selected galaxy *** extending the_(max)imum redshift of the clusters from z_(max)~1.5 to Z_(max)~2,the dark energy Figure of Merit for(w_(0),w_(a))increases to 89.72(self-calibration scheme)and 610.97("known SR"scheme),improved by a factor of~1.30 and~1.78,*** find that the impact of clusters’redshift uncertainty on the dark energy constraints is negligible as long as the redshift error of clusters is smaller than 0.01,achievable by *** also find that the bias in logarithm mass must be calibrated to be 0.30 or better to avoid significant dark energy parameter bias.

关键词： (cosmology:)dark energy-galaxies clusters general-(cosmology:)cosmological parameters