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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 6-11页

作者： Haoyu Zhou Pang-Chi Hsu Lin Chen Yitian Qian Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis *** elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget *** findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern *** increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective *** a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection *** observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.

关键词： Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation Interannual variability Pacific Meridional Mode Moisture budget analysis

Role of the Greenland Sea ice anomaly in the late-spring drought over Northwest China

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 1-5页

作者： Yang Liu Huopo Chen Nansen-Zhu International research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past *** study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation *** analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be *** increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the *** abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest ***,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Greenland Sea North Atlantic SST Drought Northwest China

Optimizing the key parameter to accelerate the recovery of AMOC under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 39-45页

作者： Haolan Ren Fei Zheng Tingwei Cao Qiang Wang International center for climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjingChina CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences and Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)QingdaoChina

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate *** studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC *** this work,with a low-resolution earth system model,the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its *** a new optimization strategy,the extra freshwater flux(FWF)parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC’s *** traditional ensemble optimal interpolation(EnOI)data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of *** results show that,under an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing in millennial simulations,the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter ***,during the parameter adjustment process,the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC,according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.

关键词： Recovery of AMOC 4×CO_(2)forcing Key parameter Parameter estimation Data assimilation Machine learning

A Comparison of the Effects of Interannual Arctic Sea Ice Loss and ENSO on Winter Haze Days: Observational Analyses and AGCM Simulations

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Journal of Meteorological research 2017年第5期31卷 820-833页

作者： Shuanglin LI Zhe HAN Huopo CHEN Department of atmospheric Science China University of Geoscience institute of atmospheric physics/climate change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences

This study compares the impacts of interarmual Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO events on winter haze days m mare- land China through observational analyses and AGCM sensitivity experiments. The results suggest that （1） Arctic sea ice loss favors an increase in haze days in central-eastern China; （2） the impact of ENSO is overall contained within southern China, with increased （reduced） haze days during La Nifia （El Nifio） winters; and （3） the impacts from sea ice loss and ENSO are linearly additive. Mechanistically, Arctic sea ice loss causes quasi-barotropic positive height anomalies over the region from northem Europe to the Ural Mountains （Urals in brief） and weak and negative height anomalies over the region from central Asia to northeastem Asia. The former favors intensified frequency of the blocking over the regions from northern Europe to the Urals, whereas the latter favors an even air pressure distribu- tion over Siberia, Mongolia, and East Asia. This large-scale circulation pattern favors more frequent occurrence of calm and steady weather in northern China and, as a consequence, increased occurrence of haze days. In comparison, La Nifia （El Nifio） exerts its influence along a tropical pathway by inducing a cyclonic （anticyclonic） lower-tropo- spheric atmospheric circulation response over the subtropical northwestern Pacific. The northeasterly （southwesterly） anomaly at the northwestern rear of the cyclone （anticyclone） causes reduced （intensified） rainfall over southeastern China, which favors increased （reduced） occurrence of haze days through the rain-washing effect.

关键词： winter haze days Arctic sea ice loss ENSO AGCM experiments

Assessment of Temperature Extremes in China Using RegCM4 and WRF

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2019年第4期36卷 363-377页

作者： Xianghui KONG Aihui WANG Xunqiang BI Dan WANG Nansen-Zhu International research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences climate change research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

This study assesses the performance of temperature extremes over China in two regional climate models(RCMs),RegCM4 and WRF, driven by the ECMWF's 20 th century reanalysis. Based on the advice of the Expert Team on climate change Detection and Indices(ETCCDI), 12 extreme temperature indices(i.e., TXx, TXn, TNx, TNn, TX90 p, TN90 p,TX10 p, TN10 p WSDI, ID, FD, and CSDI) are derived from the simulations of two RCMs and compared with those from the daily station-based observational data for the period 1981–2010. Overall, the two RCMs demonstrate satisfactory capability in representing the spatiotemporal distribution of the extreme indices over most regions. RegCM performs better than WRF in reproducing the mean temperature extremes, especially over the Tibetan Plateau(TP). Moreover, both models capture well the decreasing trends in ID, FD, CSDI, TX10 p, and TN10 p, and the increasing trends in TXx, TXn, TNx, TNn, WSDI, TX90 p,and TN90 p, over China. Compared with observation, RegCM tends to underestimate the trends of temperature extremes,while WRF tends to overestimate them over the TP. For instance, the linear trends of TXx over the TP from observation,RegCM, and WRF are 0.53?C(10 yr)^(-1), 0.44?C(10 yr)^(-1), and 0.75?C(10 yr)^(-1), respectively. However, WRF performs better than RegCM in reproducing the interannual variability of the extreme-temperature indices. Our findings are helpful towards improving our understanding of the physical realism of RCMs in terms of different time scales, thus enabling us in future work to address the sources of model biases.

关键词： dynamical downscaling extreme-temperature index observation RegCM WRF

Hindcast Experiment of Extraseasonal Short-Term Summer climate Prediction over China with RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第3期25卷 376-385页

作者：鞠丽霞郎咸梅 climate change research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences International center for climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

The regional climate model RegCM3 has been one-way nested into IAP9L-AGCM, the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model of the institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, to perform a 20-yr （1982-2001） hindcast experiment on extraseaonal short-term prediction of China summer climate. The nested prediction system is referred to as RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM in this paper. The results show that hindeasted climate fields such as 500-hPa geopotential height, 200- and 850-hPa zonal winds from RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM have positive anomaly correlation coefficients （ACCs） with the observations, and are better than those from the stand-alone IAP9L-AGCM. Except for the 850-hPa wind field, the positive ACCs of the other two fields with observations both pass the 90% confidence level and display a zonal distribution. The results indicate that the positive correlation of summer precipitation anomaly percentage between the nested prediction system and observations covers most parts of China except for downstream of the Yangtze River and north of Northeast and Northwest China. The nested prediction system and the IAP9L-AGCM exhibit different hindcast skills over different regions of China, and the former demonstrates a higher skill over South China than the latter in predicting the summer precipitation.

关键词： RegCM3 nested regional climate model hindcast experiment extraseasonal short-term prediction

Variability of Northeast China River Break-up Date

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2009年第4期26卷 701-706页

作者：王会军孙建奇 institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences climate change research center(CCRC) Chinese Academy of Sciences

This paper investigates the variability of the break-up dates of the rivers in Northeast China from their icebound states for the period of 1957-2005 and explores some potential explanatory mechanisms. Results show that the break-up of the two major rivers （the Heilongjiang River and Songhuajiang River） was about four days earlier, and their freeze-up was about 4-7 days delayed, during 1989 2005 as compared to 1971 1987. This interdecadal variation is evidently associated with the warming trend over the past 50 years. In addition, the break-up and freeze-up dates have large interannual variability, with a standard deviation of about 10-15 days. The break-up date is primarily determined by the January February-March mean surface air temperature over the Siberian-Northeast China region via changes in the melting rate, ice thickness, and snow cover over the ice cover. The interannual variability of the break-up date is also significantly connected with the Northern Annular Mode （NAM）, with a correlation coefficient of 0.35-0.55 based on the data from four stations along the two rivers. This relationship is attributed to the fact that the NAM can modulate the East Asian winter monsoon circulation and Siberian-Northeast China surface air temperature in January February-March.

关键词： river icebound season interdecadal variation interannual variability northern annular mode

Integrated assessment of air quality and climate change for policy-making: highlights of IPCC AR5 and research challenges

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National Science Review 2014年第2期1卷 176-179页

作者： Hong Liao Wenyuan Chang institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences climate change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences

Recently,air quality in China has received signiicant atention,especially since the unprecedented heavily polluted haze episodes were observed in populated areas of central and eastern China[1].Major atmospheric air pollutants include tropospheric ozone(O3)and aerosols(small liquid or solid particles,also called PM2.5 when referring to particles with diameters of 2.5μm or

关键词： IPCC Integrated assessment of air quality and climate change for policy-making highlights of IPCC AR5 and research challenges AR

A Review of Seasonal climate Prediction research in China

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2015年第2期32卷 149-168页

作者： WANG Huijun FAN Ke SUN Jianqi LI Shuanglin LIN Zhaohui ZHOU Guangqing CHEN Lijuan LANG Xianmei LI Fang ZHU Yali CHEN Hong ZHENG Fei Nansen-Zhu International research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences climate change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences National climate center China Meteorological Administration

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World climate research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.

关键词： seasonal prediction climate variability predictability

The Relationship between the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Precipitation and Its Interannual Variability over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2015年第3期8卷 127-133页

作者： FU Yuan-Hai climate change research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The intensity of summer precipitation interannual variability is strongest over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley(MLYRV). The variability is larger than 1.5 mm d–1 and up to 35%–40% of the climatological mean summer precipitation. The relationship between the interdecadal change in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability over this area is investigated, by analyzing five gauged and re-constructed precipitation datasets. The relationship is found to be very weak over the MLYRV, with a correlation coefficient of only approximately 0.10. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation influences the western North Pacific subtropical high, which is responsible for the interdecadal change in summer precipitation over the MLYRV. However, the precipitation interannual variability is closely related to the ENSO events in the preceding winter due to its impact on the meridional displacement of the East Asian westerly jet. Different physical mechanisms cause different interdecadal variation in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability, and thus result in a poor relationship.

关键词： interdecadal variation interannual variability summer precipitation