A Review of Seasonal Climate Prediction Research in China

作     者：WANG Huijun FAN Ke SUN Jianqi LI Shuanglin LIN Zhaohui ZHOU Guangqing CHEN Lijuan LANG Xianmei LI Fang ZHU Yali CHEN Hong ZHENG Fei 

作者机构：Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第32卷第2期

页      面：149-168页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41130103 and 41210007) 

主　　题：seasonal prediction climate variability predictability 

摘      要：The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.