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Local Climate Change Induced by Urbanization on a South China Sea Island

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 11-19页

作者：郝宇李磊陈柏纬孙伟戴永久 School of Atmospheric Sciences Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Sun Yatsen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of EducationSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Guangdong Provincial Marine Meteorology Science Data Center Guangzhou 510640 China Hong Kong observatory KowloonHongkong 999077 China Meteorological Bureau of Sansha City SanshaHainan 573199 China

The South China Sea is a hotspot for regional climate research.Over the past 40 years,considerable improvement has been made in the development and utilization of the islands in the South China Sea,leading to a substantial change in the land-use of the islands.However,research on the impact of human development on the local climate of these islands is lacking.This study analyzed the characteristics of local climate changes on the islands in the South China Sea based on data from the Yongxing Island Observation Station and ERA5 re-analysis.Furthermore,the influence of urbanization on the local climate of the South China Sea islands was explored in this study.The findings revealed that the 10-year average temperature in Yongxing Island increased by approximately 1.11℃from 1961 to 2020,and the contribution of island development and urbanization to the local warming rate over 60 years was approximately 36.2%.The linear increasing trend of the annual hot days from 1961–2020 was approximately 14.84 days per decade.The diurnal temperature range exhibited an increasing trend of 0.05℃per decade,whereas the number of cold days decreased by 1.06days per decade.The rapid increase in construction on Yongxing Island from 2005 to 2021 led to a decrease in observed surface wind speed by 0.32 m s^(-1)per decade.Consequently,the number of days with strong winds decreased,whereas the number of days with weak winds increased.Additionally,relative humidity exhibited a rapid decline from 2001 to 2016 and then rebounded.The study also found substantial differences between the ERA5 re-analysis and observation data,particularly in wind speed and relative humidity,indicating that the use of re-analysis data for climate resource assessment and climate change evaluation on island areas may not be feasible.

关键词： local climate climate change Yongxing Island a South China Sea island climate change induced by urbanization

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WMO TYPHOON LANDFALL FORECAST DEMONSTRATION PROJECT(WMO-TLFDP) PROGRESS AND FUTURE PLANS

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2016年第3期5卷 72-84页

作者： Xiaotu Lei Hui Yu Guomin Chen Barbara Brown Sai Tick Chan Ajit Tyagi Shanghai Typhoon Institute National Center for Atmospheric Research hongkong observatory Indian Meteorological Society

The "WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project(TLFDP)" was started in May 2010 in conjunction with the start of the Shanghai World Expo 2010. The project was successful in terms of assisting the local forecasters in providing an efficient tropical cyclone(TC) forecast service for World Expo 2010, demonstrating the performance of the most up-to-date techniques in TC forecasting, and enhancing the ability of forecasters to effectively use products based on advanced TC forecasting techniques. The first phase was completed in December 2012 and the second phase was completed in December 2015. The third phase(TLFDP-III) started in 2016.During its first(2010-2012) and second(2013-2015) phases, TLFDP collected real-time TC forecast products from 15 Typhoon Forecast Product Providers(TFPPs). The products include deterministic track and intensity forecasts, ensemble track and intensity forecasts, deterministic wind radii forecasts, wind probability forecasts, and gridded model outputs. The products were disseminated through the project's website and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center.TLFDP has made significant progress in TC forecast verification, including setting up the tools for both realtime and post-season TC forecast verification, developing and integrating several new verification techniques, carrying out a survey on the operational status of TC forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, and contributing to the WMO document "Verification of tropical cyclone forecasts". The post-season forecast verification was reported to the Session of the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee since 2013. New consensus methods for TC track and intensity forecasts were also proposed either based on Ensemble Prediction Systems(EPSs) products or multiple deterministic NWP model products. Two training workshops on TC forecasting were organized by the TLFDP and held in Shanghai, China, in May 2010 and June 2012, respectively, and seven research fellowship projects were implemented as jointly

关键词： WMO Forecast Demonstration Project typhoon landfall evaluation and assessment

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Numerical simulation of the sensor output on Macau Science Satellite-1

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2023年第1期7卷 136-143页

作者： XiZhi Li LiGang Li Kai Tang YaBing Wang JianXia Cheng Qing Yan Zhong Huang Key Laboratory of Planetary Sciences Shanghai Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Lunar and Planetary Sciences Macau University of Science and Technology

Macau Science Satellite-1(MSS-1) will be launched at the early of 2023 into a near-circular orbit. The mission is designed to measure the Earth’s geomagnetic field with unpreceded accuracy through a new perspective. The most important component installed on the satellite, to ensure high accuracy, is the deployable boom(Optical Bench). A Vector Field Magnetometer(VFM), an Advanced Stellar Compass(ASC), and a Couple Dark State Magnetometers(CDSM) are deployed on the deployable boom. In order to maximize the mission’s scientific output, a numerical simulator on MSS-1’s deployable boom was required to evaluate the adaptability of all devices on the deployable boom and assist the satellite’s data pre-processing. This paper first briefly describes the synthesis of the Earth’s total magnetic field and then describes the method simulating the output of scalar and vector magnetometers. Finally, the calibration method is applied to the synthetic magnetometer data to analyze the possible noise/error of the relevant instruments. Our results show that the simulator can imitate the disturbance of different noise sources or errors in the measuring system, and is especially useful for the satellite’s data processing group.

关键词： synthesize Earth’s magnetic field simulate satellite orbit numerical simulation of satellite’s measurement system

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Projections of Extreme Rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st Century

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第6期25卷 691-709页

作者：李子祥陈建宇陈浩新郝孟骞 Hong Kong observatory

The possible changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong in the 21st century were investigated by statistically downscaling 30 sets of the daily global climate model projections （involving a combination of 12 models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, namely, A2, A1B, and B1） of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. To cater for the intermittent and skewed character of the daily rainfall, multiple stepwise logistic regression and multiple stepwise linear regression were employed to develop the downscaling models for predicting rainfall occurrence and rainfall amount, respectively. Verification of the simulation of the 1971-2000 climate reveals that the models in general have an acceptable skill in reproducing past statistics of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong. The projection results suggest that, in the 21st century, the annual number of rain days in Hong Kong is expected to decrease while the daily rainfall intensity will increase, concurrent with the expected increase in annual rainfall. Based on the multi-model scenario ensemble mean, the annual number of rain day is expected to drop from 104 days in 1980 1999 to about 77 days in 2090 2099. For extreme rainfall events, about 90% of the model-scenario combinations indicate an increase in the annual number of days with daily rainfall ~〉 100 mm （R100） towards the end of the 21st century. The mean number of R100 is expected to increase from 3.5 days in 1980 1999 to about 5.3 days in 2090 2099. The projected changes in other extreme rainfall indices also suggest that the rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st century may also become more extreme with more uneven distributions of wet and dry periods. While most of the model-emission scenarios in general project consistent trends in the change of rainfall extremes in the 21st century, there is a large divergence in the projections among different model/emission scenarios. This reflects that there are still large uncertainties in model simulations of f

关键词： extreme rainfall projections statistical downscaling climate projections climate change hongkong

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A historical re-analysis of the calamitous midget typhoon passing through Hong Kong region on 18 September 1906 and its storm surge impact to Hong Kong region

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2022年第3期11卷 174-218页

作者： Hing Yim Mok Chi Ming Shun Stephen Davies Wing Hong Lui Dick Shum Lau Kai Chun Cheung Kwan Yin Kong Sai Tick Chan Hong Kong observatory Hong KongChina Hong Kong Maritime Museum Hong KongChina US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration USA

A typhoon passed through Hong Kong region suddenly and unexpectedly on 18 September 1906(the“Typhoon 1906”)and had a disastrous impact on Victoria Harbour and its surroundings in just a couple of hours.Since the year 1906 was the“Bingwu”year in the Chinese calendar,the typhoon is also known historically as the“Bingwu Typhoon”.Tremendous loss of lives and property resulted,and the shipping and fishing communities were devastated.Two mysteries arising from this calamitous typhoon have existed to date:1)Why the Hong Kong region observatory was not able to provide any forewarning?2)whether the storm surge reported in some contemporary records is entirely credible?This paper will focus on both of these.In this paper,we re-analyse historical weather observations recorded in various historical documents and estimate the possible storm size,intensity and track of Typhoon 1906 using tropical cyclone models.Based on the re-analyses,the storm surges,storm tides and wave heights in Hong Kong region are also estimated using storm surge and wave models.The results reveal that Typhoon 1906 was a midget typhoon,with a radius of maximum winds of 11 km or smaller,during its passage through Hong Kong region.This explains why it was technically impossible for a forewarning to be given at that time when real-time weather observations from ships,meteorological satellites and radars were non-existent.We also estimate that the maximum storm surges(storm tides)in Hong Kong region were not higher than 0.82 m(2.43 mCD)and 1.98 m(4.15 mCD)in Victoria Harbour and Tolo Harbour respectively.These figures are found to be limited by the intensity and the storm size of the typhoon.Therefore,we conclude that the previously documented storm surge figures are not supported by the present study.

关键词： Bingwu typhoon Midget typhoon Storm surge Historical re-analysis Hong Kong region

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Cosmic-Ray Positrons Produced by Pulsar Winds from Mature Gamma-Ray Pulsars

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Chinese Physics Letters 2001年第5期18卷 701-704页

作者：张力 K.S.Cheng 梅冬成 Department of Physics Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091 Department of Physics University of Hong KongPokfulam RoadHongKong Yunnan observatory Chinese Academy of SciencesKunming 650011

In the frame of theγ-ray pulsar outer gap model,e^(±)pairs in the pulsar magnetosphere are produced by the cascade of e^(±)pairs through synchrotron radiation of the return current from the outer gap.These pairs are accelerated mono-energetically to relativistic energies in the pulsar wind driven by low-frequency electromagnetic waves.Using Monte Carlo simulations,we generate a sample of the matureγ-ray pulsars in our Galaxy and calculate the positron production rate from these pulsars.With a simple leaky box model,we calculate the ratio of cosmic-ray positron to total electrons.Our result indicates that the pulsar contribution to the cosmic ray positron peaks at about 40 GeV and the observed e^(+)/(e^(-)+e^(+))ratio can be explained by this model.

关键词： cosmic outer return

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