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Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 124-133页

作者： Jie LIU Xiang-Zhen SHI Li YANG Chang-Yi LIU Jin-Cheng WANG Rui-Min ZHU Xue-Li SHI Qiu-Feng LIU International Business school Shanxi Normal UniversityXi'an 710062China University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Bejing 102488China school of Economics and management Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO) Bejing 100031China Hubei Enshi College Enshi 445099China CMA Earth system Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and *** study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs *** a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate *** findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature *** 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,***,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market *** a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.

关键词： Climate loss and damage Integrated assessment model(IAM) FUND model Representative concentration pathways(RCPs)scenario BCC-SESM

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Will fuel switching ever happened in China’s thermal power sector?The rule of carbon market design

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Frontiers of Engineering management 2024年第2期11卷 207-230页

作者： Anqi HE Huarong PENG Wuhan University Institute for International Studies Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430072China Climate Change and Energy Economics Study Center Economics and Management SchoolWuhan UniversityWuhan 430000China Collaborative Innovation Center for Emissions Trading system by Ministry of Education and Hubei Provincial Government Hubei University of EconomicsWuhan 430200China

To assess the effectiveness of China’s emissions trading scheme(ETS)in facilitating energy structure optimization,we constructed a fuel-switching model utilizing data from 1067 generating units under the Chinese ETS *** model simulates the fuel-switching price in China’s thermal power sector,taking into account various allowance allocation *** results show the following:1)Thermal power plants will transition from coal to gas if the current ETS auction rate surpasses 26%.2)Furthermore,in scenarios where the ETS operates independently,a transition will occur if the carbon allowance market is entirely auction-based and the carbon price attains 119.50 USD/tCO_(2).3)In a collaborative scenario involving both the ETS and a gas feed-in tariff subsidy,a carbon price of 9.39 USD/tCO_(2)will effect a transition from coal to gas,provided both the auction ratio and subsidy price are maximized.

关键词： ETS thermal power plant fuel switching allowance allocation method feed-in tariff subsidy

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A Study on the Factors Influencing Consumer Purchase Decision Under the Live-Streaming Sales Model

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Journal of Electronic Research and Application 2024年第3期8卷 185-190页

作者： Zhaoxia Zhang Yating Mo Yijun Xia Department of Convergence management Woosong UniversityDaejeon 34606Republic of Korea graduate school of Woosong University Daejeon 34606Republic of Korea

In recent years,with the rapid development and popularization of Internet information technology,many new media platforms have risen rapidly,and major e-commerce companies have begun to explore the mode of *** during the COVID-19 pandemic,due to the lockdown,live-streaming has become an important means of economic development in many *** to its remarkable characteristics of timeliness,entertainment,and interactivity,it has become the latest and trendiest sales mode of e-commerce channels,reflecting huge economic potential and commercial *** article analyzes two models and their characteristics of live-streaming sales from a practical *** on this,it outlines consumer purchasing decisions and the factors that affect consumer purchasing decisions under the live-streaming sales ***,it discusses targeted suggestions for using the live-streaming sales model to expand the consumer market,hoping to promote the healthy and steady development of the live-streaming sales industry.

关键词： Live streaming sales model Consumers Purchase decisions Influencing factors

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A dynamic exploratory hybrid modelling framework for simulating complex and uncertain system

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2024年第2期5卷 167-178页

作者： Gangqiao Wang Han Xing Yongqiang Chen Yi Liu Institute of Big Data Inteligent management and Decision-making College of ManagementShenzhen UniversityShenzhen 518060China school of Safety Science Tsinghua UniversityBejing 100084China Department of Mechanics and Engineering Science College of EngineeringPeking UniversityBejing 100871China

Complex disaster systems involve various components and mechanisms that could interact in complex ways and change over time,leading to significant deep *** to deep uncertainty,decision-makers have severe inadequacy of knowledge and often encounter unpredictable surprises that may emerge in the future,thus making it difficult to specify appropriate models and parameters to describe the system of *** this paper,we propose a dynamic exploratory hybrid modeling framework that fits data,models,and computational ex-periments together to simulate complex systems with deep *** the framework,one needs to develop multiple plausible models from a hybrid modeling perspective and perform enormous computational experi-ments to explore the diversity of future ***-time data is then incorporated into diverse forecasts to dynamically adjust the simulation *** ultimately enables an ongoing modeling and analysis process in which deep uncertainty would be gradually *** approach has been applied to a human-involved car-following system simulation under complex traffic *** results show that the proposed approach can improve the prediction accuracy while enhancing the sensitivity of the simulation system to uncertain changes in the system of interest.

关键词： Disaster modeling and analysis Deepuncertainty Hybrid modeling Adaptivesimulation

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Experimental investigation on effective aerosol scavenging using different spray configurations with pre-injection of water mist for Fukushima Daiichi decommissioning

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Nuclear Science and Techniques 2024年第5期35卷 154-172页

作者： Rui-Cong Xu Avadhesh Kumar Sharma Erdal Ozdemir Shuichiro Miwa Shunichi Suzuki Department of Nuclear Engineering and management The University of Tokyo7‑3‑1 HongoBunkyo‑KuTokyo 113‑8656Japan Nuclear Professional school The University of Tokyo2‑2

During the decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant,it is important to consider the retrieval of resolidified debris both in air and underwater *** the subsequent retrieval of debris from the reactor building,the resolidified debris must be cut into smaller pieces using various cutting *** the cutting process,aerosol particles are expected to be generated at the submicron *** has been noted that such aerosols sizing within the Greenfield gap(0.1-1μm)are difficult to remove effectively using traditional spraying ***,to improve the aerosol removal efficiency of the spray system,a new aerosol agglomeration method was recently proposed,which involves injecting water mist to enlarge the sizes of the aerosol particles before removing them using water *** this study,a series of experiments were performed to clarify the proper spray configurations for effective aerosol scavenging and to improve the performance of the water *** experimental results showed that the spray flow rate and droplet characteristics are important factors for the aerosol-scavenging efficiency and performance of the water *** results obtained from this study will be helpful for the optimization of the spray system design for effective aerosol scavenging during the decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi plant.

关键词： Fukushima Daiichi decommissioning Aerosol scavenging Multiphase flow Spray system Aerosol-mist agglomeration

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Targeted therapeutic effects of oral magnetically driven pectin nanoparticles containing chlorogenic acid on colon cancer

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Particuology 2024年第1期84卷 53-59页

作者： Huatai Zhu Limei Zhang Fujia Kou Jingyang Zhao Jiandu Lei Jing He Beijing Key Laboratory of Lignocellulosic Chemistry Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing100083China Institute of Biopharmaceutical and Health Engineering Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate SchoolTsinghua UniversityShenzhen518055China

Oral colonic nano-drug delivery system has attracted growing attention in treating colon cancer for their excellent ***,the unique and complex structure of the gastrointestinal tract is still an obstacle to the safe delivery of drugs targeting sites in colon ***,we designed magnetically driven dual-targeted oral colonic nanoparticles loaded with chlorogenic acid using pectin and oleic acid-modified iron oxide(Fe3O4@OA).Specific degradation of pectin by pectinase produced by colonic flora and magnetic fields applied to the colon confers specific targeting of nanoparticles to the *** order to overcome the challenge of preparing magnetically driven nanoparticles with small and homogeneous particle sizes by a single conventional method,we developed the combined ultrasound-emulsification *** average particle size of the prepared nanoparticles was 81.04±1.02 nm,which showed good drug release in the simulated colonic *** vitro anticancer studies,the drug-loaded nanoparticles possess an obvious toxicity and apoptosis-inducing ability against cancer ***,the hemolysis results demonstrated the safety of the nanoplatform(PET/CGA/Fe_(3)O_(4)@OA).This work holds broad prospects as a new treatment modality for colon cancer.

关键词： Pectin Chlorogenic acid Ultrasound-emulsion Magnetically driven Colon cancer Colon targeted

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Secure state estimation for cyber-physical systems with unknown input sliding mode observer

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Control Theory and Technology 2024年第2期22卷 244-253页

作者： Panpan Zhang Yuwei Ren Yixian Fang Ang Liu school of Information Science and Engineering Shandong Normal UniversityJinan250358ShandongChina school of Information Engineering Shandong Management UniversityJinan250357ShandongChina

In recent years, cyber attacks have posed great challenges to the development of cyber-physical systems. It is of great significance to study secure state estimation methods to ensure the safe and stable operation of the system. This paper proposes a secure state estimation for multi-input and multi-output continuous-time linear cyber-physical systems with sparse actuator and sensor attacks. First, for sparse sensor attacks, we propose an adaptive switching mechanism to mitigate the impact of sparse sensor attacks by filtering out their attack modes. Second, an unknown input sliding mode observer is designed to not only observe the system states, sensor attack signals, and measurement noise present in the system but also counteract the effects of sparse actuator attacks through an unknown input matrix. Finally, for the design of an unknown input sliding mode state observer, the feasibility of the observing system is demonstrated by means of Lyapunov functions. Additionally, simulation experiments are conducted to show the effectiveness of this method.

关键词： Sparse attacks Cyber-physical systems Unknown input sliding mode Secure state estimation Adaptive switching mechanism

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Socio-economic vulnerability level in the Jeneberang watershed in Gowa Regency,South Sulawesi Province,Indonesia

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Regional Sustainability 2024年第1期5卷 69-79页

作者： Andi Rachmat ARFADLY Hazairin ZUBAIR MAHYUDDIN Andang Suryana SOMA graduate school Hasanuddin UniversityMakassar90245Indonesia Faculty of Agriculture Hasanuddin UniversityMakassar90245Indonesia

Jeneberang watershed is vital,particularly for people living in Gowa Regency(South Sulawesi Province,Indonesia),who benefit from its many *** and floods occur every year in the Jeneberang watershed,so it is imperative to understand the socio-economic vulnerability of this *** research aims to identify the vulnerability level of the Jeneberang watershed so that the government can prioritize areas with high vulnerability level and formulate effective strategies to reduce these the ***,this study was conducted in 12 districts located in the Jeneberang *** primary data were collected from questionnaires completed by community members,community leaders,and various stakeholders,and the secondary data were from the Landsat satellite imagery in 2020,the Badan Push Statistic of Gowa Regency,and some governmental *** socio-economic vulnerability variables were determined using the Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis(MCDA)method,and each variable was weighted and analyzed using the Geographical Information system(GIS).The study reveals that the levels of socio-economic vulnerability are affected by variables such as population density,vulnerable groups(disabled people,elderly people,and young people),road network and settlement,percentage of poor people,and productive land area in the Jeneberang ***,all of the 12 districts in the Jeneberang watershed are included in the medium vulnerability level,with the mean percentage of socio-economic vulnerability around 50.92%.The socio-economic vulnerability of Bajeng,Pallangga,and Somba Opu districts is categorized at high level,the socio-economic vulnerability of Bungaya,Parangloe,and Tombolo Pao districts is classified as medium level,and the remaining 6 districts(Barombong,Bontolempangan,Bontomarannu,Manuju,Parigi,and Tinggimoncong)are ranked as low socio-economic *** study can help policy-makers to formulate strategy that contributes t

关键词： Socio vulnerability Economic vulnerability Population density Vulnerable groups Road network and settlement Productive land area Jeneberang watershed

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Factors Impacting Participatory Post‑Disaster Relocation and Housing Reconstruction:The Case of Tsholotsho District,Zimbabwe

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第1期15卷 58-72页

作者： Nombulelo Kitsepile Ngulube Hirokazu Tatano Subhajyoti Samaddar Department of Social Informatics Graduate School of InformaticsKyoto UniversityKyoto 606-8507Japan Disaster Prevention Research Institute(DPRI) Kyoto UniversityKyoto 611-0011Japan

Relocation is not typically considered the best planning option for post-disaster reconstruction and rehabilitation,but it may be necessary if the site has suffered severe damage or is at imminent *** is a growing recognition that strong community participation is necessary in the post-disaster relocation decision-making process since relocation can have detrimental effects on a community’s livelihood,cultural system,and way of life,among ***,the realization of this still needs to be *** of yet,few studies have examined a comprehensive account of meaningful community engagement in post-disaster relocation and reconstruction,particularly in developing *** study investigated what factors influenced local communities’ participation in post-disaster relocation and reconstruction works after the 2017Cyclone Dineo flood disaster in the Tsholotsho District of *** research methods such as face-to-face interviews,observations,and focus groups were used to collect qualitative data from a purposive sample of 25 community members and 6 *** empirical investigation showed that despite the fact that the relocation project was conceived as a community-centered project,there was no meaningful community engagement,due to the absence of a participatory framework or planning guidelines for stakeholder engagement,as well as the lack of political willingness among government *** study concluded that the lack of community involvement led to local communities abandoning the reconstruction sites because relocation projects failed to accommodate the cultural beliefs,place attachments,and livelihood concerns of local *** study suggested that it is imperative to enhance the awareness of government officials and other stakeholders about the importance of community participation for the effective implementation of post-disaster relocation *** community participation can also provide avenues fo

关键词： Community rehabilitation Housing reconstruction-Participatory relocation Zimbabwe

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Central environmental protection inspection and carbon emission reduction: A tripartite evolutionary game model from the perspective of carbon neutrality

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Petroleum Science 2024年第3期21卷 2139-2153页

作者： Zhen-Hua Zhang Dan Ling Qin-Xin Yang Yan-Chao Feng Jing Xiu school of Economics Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000GansuChina Institute of Green Finance Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000GansuChina school of management Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000GansuChina school of Business Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001HenanChina Institute of Economics Jilin Academy of Social SciencesChangchun130033JilinChina

Since the carbon neutrality target was proposed,many countries have been facing severe challenges to carbon emission reduction *** study is conducted using a tripartite evolutionary game model to explore the impact of the central environmental protection inspection(CEPI)on driving carbon emission reduction,and to study what factors influence the strategic choices of each party and how they interact with each *** research results suggest that local governments and manufacturing enterprises would choose strategies that are beneficial to carbon reduction when CEPI *** the initial willingness of all parties increases 20%,50%—80%,the time spent for the whole system to achieve stability decreases from 100%,60%—30%.The evolutionary result of“thorough inspection,regulation implementation,low-carbon management”is the best strategy for the tripartite evolutionary ***,the smaller the cost and the larger the benefit,the greater the likelihood of the three-party game stability strategy *** study has important guiding significance for other developing countries to promote carbon emission reduction by environmental policy.

关键词： Central environmental protection inspection Local government Manufacturing enterprise Tripartite evolutionary game Carbon emission reduction

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