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Evaluation of Agricultural Climatic Resource Utilization During Spring Maize Cultivation in Northeast China Under Climate Change

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2013年第5期27卷 758-768页

作者：郭建平赵俊芳袁彬冶明珠 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Huafeng meteorological Media Group Xining meteorological bureau

Agricultural climatic resources （such as light,temperature,and water） are environmental factors that affect crop *** the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural *** study investigates these effects under the IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 （0.25° ×0.25°） during *** outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and *** climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring *** indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index （Isr）,an average efficacy suitability index （Ise）,and an average resource utilization index （K）,are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and *** indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global *** three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,*** Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after *** spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift ***,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning *** maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.

关键词： climate change Northeast China spring maize climatic suitability agricultural climatic resource utilization

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ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 100-hPa SOUTH ASIA HIGH AND MEI-YU IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第3期17卷 302-309页

作者：刘梅裴海瑛俞剑蔚胡洛林 Jiangsu meteorological Observatory Nanjing meteorological bureau

By analyzing the change of an index for the characteristics of South Asia High and variations of upper-air troughs in 2002–2005,we studied the impact of South Asia high on the beginning and ending of the Mei-yu(*** rain corresponding to the ripening season of plum)in Jiangsu *** verification is conducted on the relationships between the index and the Mei-yu season in 1991–2005 to examine the impacts of the SAH characteristics index on a rain intensity index of Mei-yu and regional distribution of a characteristics index for different annual patterns of *** composite is performed of the 100-hPa circulation field for these patterns using the 100-hPa geopotential height of Northern Hemisphere from 2002 to 2005 and 45-year NCEP reanalysis to study the difference in the circulation for different patterns of *** and statistic conclusions,which share much in common,have been obtained as follows.(1)The characteristics preceding to and the advancement/retreat of SAH and the movement of westerly troughs are the factors that influence the onset time of the Mei-yu season;after the Mei-yu onset,the progression/withdrawal of SAH and how farther east it extends are determining how long the Mei-yu lasts and when it ends.(2)During the Mei-yu,the general 100-hPa circulation situation and average characteristics of the SAH are well corresponding to the characteristics of the season and annual patterns of *** addition,the averages of the SAH ridgeline and east-extending index for June,July and the Mei-yu season have some implications to the forecast of the index of Mei-yu *** conclusions can be served as powerful means in determining the starting/ending dates, duration and annual pattern of the Mei-yu season.

关键词： South Asia High characteristics index Mei-yu in Jiangsu province

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Spatial and Temporal Variations of Atmospheric Angular Momentum and Its Relation to the Earth Length of Day

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Journal of meteorological Research 2014年第1期28卷 150-161页

作者：杨萍石文静肖子牛董仕任菊章 China meteorological Administration Training Center Institute of meteorological Science and Technology Yunnan Meteorological Bureau

The characteristics of atmospheric-angular-momentum （AAM） and length-of-day （LOD） on different timescales are investigated in this paper, on the basis of the NECP/NCAR reanalysis data and an LOD dataset for 1962-2010. The variation and overall trend of the AAM anomaly （AAMA） at different latitudes are presented, and the relationship between AAMA and LOD is discussed. The AAMAs in different latitude regions exhibit different patterns of variation, and the AAMA in the tropics makes a dominant contribution to the global AAMA. In the tropics, the AAMA propagates poleward to the extratropical regions. It is confirmed that a downward propagation of the AAMA occurs in the lower stratosphere. Correlation analysis shows that the relationship between AAMA and LOD varies significantly on different timescales. Specifically, the tropical AAMA is positively correlated with LOD on short timescales, but they are not obviously correlated on long timescales. This indicates that the interaction between AAM and the earth＇s angular momentum follows the conservative restriction on short timescales, but the influence of the earth angular momentum on that of the atmosphere depends on the interaction process on long timescales.

关键词： atmospheric angular momentum spatial and temporal variations propagation characteristics length of day

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Application of Equivalent Black Body Temperature in the Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Intensity

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2007年第4期21卷 465-475页

作者：陈佩燕端义宏余晖胡春梅 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China meteorological Administration Chongqing meteorological bureau

Using equivalent black body temperature （TBB） data retrieved from meteorological satellite GMS-5 during 1996-2002, the correlation between the circular symmetric/asymmetric component of TBB and the intensity of tropical cyclone （TC） at various time lags from 0 to 48 h is analyzed for the Northwest Pacific （0^-50~N, 120%155~E）, excluding landed and near-coast samples. It is found that the total TBB near southeast of the eyewall, the circular symmetric component, and the sum of the amplitudes of tangential wave numbers 1-10 （SA10） of the TBB between the radii of 0.8^o and 1.7^o are significantly and negatively correlated with the TC intensity at various time lags from 0 to 48 h. Especially, the maximum 24-h lag correlation coefficients reach -0.52, -0.58, and -0.625, respectively. A statistical prediction scheme for TC intensity is developed based on climatic persistent, synoptic, and TBB factors by stepwise regression technique. It is found that the variance contribution of the averaged TBB over the ring between 1.0^o and 1.5^o from the TC center ranks the fourth in the equation for 12-h TC intensity prediction, and those of the total TBB near southeast of the eyewall and the difference between maximum and minimum TBB between 1.1^o and 1.5^o rank the third and fifth respectively in the 24-h forecast equation. It is also shown that, with TBB factors, the following predictions are improved compared to the scheme without TBB factors： 48-h prediction for severe tropical storm （STS）, 12-h prediction for TC with a weakening rate greater than 15 m s-1/12 h, 24-h intensity prediction for TC with almost no intensity change, and 48-h prediction for TC intensifying faster than 10 m s^-1/48 h.

关键词： TBB (black body temperature) asymmetry intensity prediction tropical cyclone

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Changes in Vegetation and Assessment of meteorological Conditions in Ecologically Fragile Karst Areas

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Journal of meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 172-183页

作者： Yanli CHEN Weihua MO Yonglin HUANG Jianfei MO Xiaohan HUANG Xiumei WEN Institute of meteorological Sciences Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region(GZAR)Meteorological BureauNanning 530022 Hechi meteorological Service GZAR Meteorological BureauHechi 547000 College of Geography and Planning Nanning Normal UniversityNanning 530001

meteorological conditions have an important impact on changes of vegetation in ecologically fragile karst *** study aims to explore a method for quantitative evaluation of these meteorological conditions. We analyzed the changing trend of vegetation during 2000–2018 and the correlations between vegetation changes and various meteorological factors in karst rocky areas of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China. Key meteorological factors in vegetation areas with varying degrees of improvement were selected and evaluated at seasonal timescale. A quantitative evaluation model of comprehensive influences of meteorological factors on vegetation was built by using the partial least-square regression(PLS). About 91.45% of the vegetation tended to be improved, while only the rest 8.55% showed a trend of degradation from 2000 to 2018. Areas with evident vegetation improvement were mainly distributed in the middle and northeast, and those with obvious vegetation degradation were scattered. meteorological factors affecting vegetation were significantly different among the four seasons. Overall, high air humidity, small temperature difference in spring and autumn, and low daily minimum temperature and air pressure were favorable conditions. Low temperature in winter as well as high temperature in summer and autumn were unfavorable conditions. The Climate Vegetation Index(CVI) model was established by PLS using the maximum, minimum, and average temperatures;vapor pressure;rainfall;and air pressure as key meteorological factors. The Enhanced Vegetation Index(EVI) was well fitted by the CVI model, with the average coefficient of determination(r2) and root mean square error(RMSE) of 0.856 and 0.042, respectively. Finally, an assessment model of comprehensive meteorological conditions was built based on the interannual differences in CVI. The meteorological conditions in the study area in 2014 were successfully evaluated by combining the model and selected seasonal key meteo

关键词： karst rocky area vegetation change ecologically fragile meteorological conditions

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THE EFFECTS OF STATION NETWORK DENSITY ON STATISTICAL ANALYSES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第4期24卷 421-432页

作者： LU Xiao-qin YU Hui YING Ming QI Liang-bo Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Shanghai meteorological Center Shanghai Meteorological Bureau

In this paper, 1416 conventional ground-based meteorological observation stations on the mainland of China were subdivided into groups of differing spatial density. Data from each subgroup were then used to analyze variations in the tropical cyclone(TC) precipitation statistics derived from each subgroup across the mainland of China(excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao), as well as in two regions(east China and south China) and three provinces(Guangdong, Hainan, and Jiangxi) between 1981 and 2010. The results showed that for the mainland of China, total precipitation, mean annual precipitation, mean daily precipitation, and its spatial distribution were the same regardless of the spatial density of the stations. However, some minor differences were evident with respect to precipitation extremes and their spatial distribution. Overall, there were no significant variations in the TC precipitation statistics calculated from different station density schemes for the mainland of China. The regional and provincial results showed no significant differences in mean daily precipitation, but this was not the case for the maximum daily precipitation and torrential rain frequency. The maximum daily precipitation calculated from the lower-density station data was slightly less than that based on the higher-density station schemes, and this effect should be taken into consideration when interpreting regional climate statistics. The impact of station density on TC precipitation characteristics was more obvious for Hainan than for Guangdong or Jiangxi provinces. In addition, the effects were greater for south China(including Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces) than east China(including Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces). Furthermore, the analysis proved that the statistical climatic characteristics began to change significantly when the station spacing was between 40 and 50 km,which are close to the mean spa

关键词： station density tropical cyclone precipitation climatic characteristic

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Deep learning-based subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction in southwest China:Algorithm comparison and sensitivity to input features

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2023年第4期7卷 471-486页

作者： GuoLu Gao Yang Li XueYun Zhou XiaoMing Xiang JiaQi Li ShuCheng Yin Ya’an meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauYa’an Sichuan 625000China Plateau and Basin Rainstorm Drought and Flood Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu 610000China College of Atmospheric Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China meteorological Observation and Data Centre Sichuan Meteorological BureauChengdu 610072China Leshan meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauLeshan Sichuan 614000China Quanzhou meteorological Observatory Fujian Meteorological BureauQuanzhou Fujian 362000China

The prediction of precipitation at subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)timescales remains an enormous challenge because of the gap between weather and climate *** study compares three deep learning algorithms,namely,the long short-term memory recurrent(LSTM),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and recurrent neural network(RNN),and selects the optimal algorithm to establish an S2S precipitation prediction *** models were evaluated in four subregions of the Sichuan Province:the Plateau,Valley,eastern Basin,and western *** results showed that the RNN model had better performance than the LSTM and GRU *** could be because the RNN model had an advantage over the LSTM model in the transformation of climate indices with positive and negative *** the validation of test datasets,the RNN model successfully predicted the precipitation trend in most years during the wet season(May-October).The RNN model had a lower prediction bias(within±10%),higher sign accuracy of the precipitation trend(~88.95%),and greater accuracy of the maximum precipitation month(>0.85).For the prediction of different lead times,the RNN model was able to provide a stable trend prediction for summer precipitation,and the time correlation coefficient score was higher than that of the National Climate Center of ***,this study proposed a method to measure the sensitivity of the RNN model to different input features,which may provide unprecedented insights into the nonlinear relationship and complicated feedback process among climate *** results of the sensitivity distribution are as ***,the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were equally important for the prediction of wet season ***,the sensitivity of the snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau was higher than that in the Northern ***,an opposite sensitivity appeared in two different patterns of the Indian Ocean and sea ice concentrations in the Arctic and the Barents Sea.

关键词： recurrent neural network long short-term memory recurrent sensitivity analysis artificial intelligence explainability complex terrain southwest China

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Variation in Summer Rainfall in North China during the Period 1956-2007 and Links with Atmospheric Circulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第2期28卷 363-374页

作者：梁丰陶诗言卫捷布和朝鲁 Beijing meteorological bureau China meteorological Administration Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Using gauge precipitation data and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the interdecadal changes in summer precipitation during the period 1956-2007 in North China and the link with atmospheric circulation change over Eurasia are studied. Results show that precipitation amounts decreased by 16.2 mm per decade, which was attributable to a significant reduction in precipitation frequency. Contrary wave trains were found in the subtropical westerly jet （wave guide） over Eurasia for the wet and dry years of North China. When the wave trains had a ridge （trough） around the Korean Peninsula, conditions favored （disfavored） the westward and northward extension of the West Pacific subtropical high. The westward and northward extension of the West Pacific subtropical high is, and was, beneficial to rainfall in North China. The downstream propagation of Rossby waves was found to favor the maintenance of these wave trains. Sensible heating in the south of Lake Baikal and latent heating from the Korean Peninsula to the south of Japan increased during the period 1980-2007, as compared to that during 1957-1979. the wet period. These changes had positive influences on the maintenance of Anticyclonic-Cyclonic anomaly centers in the wave trains. Furthermore, northerly winds were prevalent in the lower troposphere during the dry period （1980-2007）. which prohibited the transportation of water vapor to North China from the seas and thereby led to a decrease in rainfall in North China. The weakening of the Indian Monsoon during the dry period might be one of reasons for the reduction in water vapor transportation.

关键词： North China precipitation frequency wave trains downstream development water vapor transportation latent heat sensible heat

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SYNOPTIC-CLIMATIC STUDIES OF DUST FALL IN CHINA SINCE HISTORIC TIMES

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Science China Chemistry 1984年第8期27卷 825-836页

作者：张德二 National meteorological bureau Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing

Based on ancient Chinese records of dust rain, historic climate information and recentweather reports, the map of places of dust fall for the last 3000 years and the fre-quency curve of dust fall year for the last 1700 years have been obtained. These indicatethat (i) the places where historical dust rain occurred nearly coincide with the distribu-tions of loess of China and the mean number of days with modern floating dust, (ii) thefrequent spells of dust fall concentrate in the cold and/or dry periods, (iii) dust fall iscaused by synoptic system, (iv) the ascension-transport-settling of dust is closely related tovertical flow and horizontal stream field, (v) the source areas of dust are deserts of north-western China, and (vi) the fine dust of loess of China has been transported by wind force.

关键词： SYNOPTIC-CLIMATIC STUDIES OF DUST FALL IN CHINA SINCE HISTORIC TIMES

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A Numerical Study of the Severe Heavy Rainfall Associated with Typhoon Haitang (2005)

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2008年第2期22卷 224-238页

作者：余贞寿倪东鸿高守亭闵锦忠任鸿翔 Wenzhou meteorological bureau Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster NUIST Institute of Atmosphelic Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Zhejiang Provincial meteorological bureau

Typhoons landing in the central and north of Fujian Province often seriously impact Zhejiang Province. Much attention has been given to exceptionally torrential rain in the South/North Yandang mountainous regions in the southeast of Zhejiang Province associated with typhoon-landing. Typhoon Haitang （2005） is a typical case of such a category, which landed in Huangqi Town of Lianjiang County in Fujian Province, and meanwhile greatly impacted Southeast Zhejiang. A numerical simulation has been performed with the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic model MM5V3 to study the torrential rain associated with Typhoon Haitang. The comparison of simulated and observed rainfalls shows that the MM5V3 was able to well simulate not only the intensity but also the locations of severe heavy rain of Typhoon Haitang, especially the locations of the south/north heavy rain center areas in the South/North Yandang mountainous regions. Meanwhile, the diagnostic analysis has been also carried out for better understanding of the severe heavy rain mechanism by using the model output data of high resolution. The diagnostic analysis indicates that the westward tilt of the axis of vorticity from lower layer to upper layer over the south heavy rain center area and the coupled structure of convergence in the lower layer and divergence in the upper level over the north heavy rain center area, were both propitious to stronger upward motion in the layers between the mid and upper atmosphere, and the secondary circulation induced by the vertical shear of the ambient winds further strengthened the upward motion in the heavy rain areas. After Haitang passed through Taiwan Island into the Taiwan Strait, the water vapor east of Taiwan Island was continuously transferred by typhoon circulation towards South Wenzhou, leading to the torrential rainfall in the South Yandang mountainous region south of Wenzhou. Subsequently~ Haitang moved northwards, the water vapor belt east of Taiwan Island slowly advanced northwards,

关键词： typhoon torrential rain vertical shear unstable stratification effect of terrain

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