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Counterfactual analysis of the 2023 Omicron XBB wave in China

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第1期9卷 195-203页

作者： Hengcong Liu Xiangyanyu Xu Xiaowei Deng Zexin Hu Ruijia Sun Junyi Zou Jiayi Dong Qianhui Wu Xinhua Chen Lan Yi Jun Cai Juanjuan Zhang Marco Ajelli Hongjie Yu School of Public Health Fudan UniversityKey Laboratory of Public Health SafetyMinistry of EducationShanghaiChina Laboratory for Computational epidemiology and Public Health Department of Epidemiology and BiostatisticsIndiana University School of Public HealthBloomingtonINUSA

Background:China has experienced a COVID-19 wave caused by Omicron XBB variant starting in April *** aim is to conduct a retrospective analysis exploring the dynamics of the outbreak under counterfactual scenarios that combine the use of vaccines,antiviral drugs,and nonpharmaceutical ***:We developed a mathematical model of XBB transmission in China,which has been calibrated using SARS-CoV-2 positive rates per *** age-specific infection-hospitalization risk,infection-ICU risk,and infection-fatality risk were used to estimate disease burdens,characterized as number of hospital admissions,ICU admissions,and ***:We estimated that in absence of behavioral change,the XBB outbreak in spring 2023 would have resulted in 0.86 billion infections(∼61%of the total population).Our counterfactual analysis shows that the synergetic effect of vaccination(70%vaccination coverage),antiviral treatment(20%receiving antiviral treatment),and moderate nonpharmaceutical interventions(20%isolation and L1 PHSMs)could reduce the number of deaths to levels close to seasonal influenza(1.17 vs.0.65 per 10,000 individuals and 5.85 vs.3.85 per 10,000 individuals aged 60+,respectively).The maximum peak prevalence of hospital and ICU admissions are estimated to be lower than the corresponding capacities(8.6 vs.10.4 per 10,000 individuals and 1.2 vs.2.1 per 10,000 individuals,respectively).Conclusion:Our findings suggest that the capacity of the Chinese healthcare system was adequate to face the Omicron XBB wave in spring 2023 but,at the same time,supports the importance of administering highly effective vaccine with long-lasting immune response,and the use of antiviral treatments.

关键词： wave analysis starting

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Efficacy of equine-assisted psychotherapy in veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder

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Journal of Integrative Medicine 2019年第1期17卷 14-19页

作者： L.Elisabeth Burton Fares Qeadan Mark R.Burge College of Nursing University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center department of Internal Medicine/epidemiology Biostatistics & Preventive Medicine University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center department of Internal Medicine/Endocrinology University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center

Background: Posttraumatic stress disorder(PTSD) is a common and debilitating disorder among war veterans. Although complementary and alternative therapies are gaining acceptance in the treatment of PTSD, the efficacy of animal-based therapies in this disorder is unknown. The goal of equine-assisted psychotherapy(EAP) is to improve the social, emotional, and/or cognitive functions of individuals with ***: This study aims to explore the effects of EAP on PTSD symptoms. We hypothesized that veterans with PTSD who participate in a standardized EAP program for 1 h per week for 6 weeks would experience decreased PTSD symptoms and would demonstrate increased resilience as compared with individuals who do not receive EAP ***, setting, participants and interventions: We conducted a sequentially assigned, two-arm parallel group trial comparing 6 weeks of EAP with standard, previously established, ongoing PTSD *** was conducted at a community EAP facility in conjunction with an academic University Hospital. Twenty adult veterans with symptomatic PTSD completed the study. Ten adult veterans with previously diagnosed PTSD were assigned to EAP and received directed interaction with trained horses for one hour a week in groups of 3 or 4 individuals, while also continuing their previously established therapies. A certified therapist supervised the sessions, and a professional horse handler was also *** were compared with those from 10 adult veterans who only received their standard previously established PTSD care as prescribed by their *** outcome measures: Changes in salivary cortisol, scores for the PTSD Check List-Military Version(PCL-M) and the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale(CD-RISC) after 6 weeks of study were ***: Of the 20 enrolled patients, 10 served in Afghanistan, 5 served in Iraq, and 3 served in Vietnam. Subjects were(47 ± 14) years old, were predominantly male, and had a body mass index of(29

关键词： Posttraumatic stress disorder Military veterans Alternative therapy Equine-assisted psychotherapy Clinical trial

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Relationships between cell cycle pathway gene polymorphisms and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2016年第24期22卷 5558-5567页

作者： Yue-Li Nan Yan-Ling Hu Zhi-Ke Liu Fang-Fang Duan Yang Xu Shu Li Ting Li Da-Fang Chen Xiao-Yun Zeng department of epidemiology School of Public Health Guangxi Medical University Medical Scientific Research Centre Guangxi Medical University department of epidemiology and biostatistics School of Public Health Peking University Health Science Center Key Laboratory of High-Incidence-Tumor Prevention and Treatment (Guangxi Medical University) Ministry of Education

AIM: To investigate the associations between the polymorphisms of cell cycle pathway genes and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC). METHODS: We enrolled 1127 cases newly diagnosed with HCC from the Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University and 1200 non-tumor patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University. General demographic characteristics, behavioral information, and hematological indices were collected by unified questionnaires. Genomic DNA was isolatedfrom peripheral venous blood using Phenol-Chloroform. The genotyping was performed using the Sequenom Mass ARRAY i PLEX genotyping method. The association between genetic polymorphisms and risk of HCC was shown by P-value and the odd ratio(OR) with 95% confidence interval(CI) using the unconditional logistic regression after adjusting for age, sex, nationality, smoking, drinking, family history of HCC, and hepatitis B virus(HBV) infection. Moreover, stratified analysis was conducted on the basis of the status of HBV infection, smoking, and alcohol ***: The HCC risk was lower in patients with the MCM4 rs2305952 CC(OR = 0.22, 95%CI: 0.08-0.63, P = 0.01) and with the CHEK1 rs515255 TC, TT, TC/TT(OR = 0.73, 95%CI: 0.56-0.96, P = 0.02; OR = 0.67, 95%CI: 0.46-0.97, P = 0.04; OR = 0.72, 95%CI: 0.56-0.92, P = 0.01, respectively). Conversely, the HCC risk was higher in patients with the KAT2 B rs17006625 GG(OR = 1.64, 95%CI: 1.01-2.64, P = 0.04). In addition, the risk was markedly lower for those who were carriers of MCM4 rs2305952 CC and were also HBs Ag-positive and non-drinking and nonsmoking(P < 0.05, respectively) and for those who were carriers of CHEK1 rs515255 TC, TT, TC/TT and were also HBs Ag-negative and non-drinking(P < 0.05, respectively). Moreover, the risk was higher for those who were carriers of KAT2 B rs17006625 GG and were also HBs Ag-negative(P < 0.05).CONCLUSION: Of 12 cell cycle pathway genes, MCM4, CHEK1 and KAT2 B polymorphisms may be associated with t

关键词： Cell cycle pathway genes Hepatocellular carcinoma Single nucleotide polymorphism Case-control study Genetic susceptibility

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Management and Reconfiguration of a Radiology department under the Threat of Coronavirus Disease 2019:Experience from Wuhan

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Current Medical Science 2020年第4期40卷 608-613页

作者： Meng TIAN Cong-cong LIU Lu LONG Qiu-xia WANG department of Radiology Tongji HospitalTongji Medical CollegeHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430000China department of epidemiology and biostatistics West China School of Public HealthSichuan UniversityChengdu 610000China

Summary:The corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)is an emerging respiratory infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2,which first occurred in December 2019 in Wuhan,*** days,in China,chest CT is used for diagnosis of COVID-19,as an important complement to the reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR)*** of contacting with a large number of suspected or probable cases closely during chest CT examination,radiographers are easily infected with *** article included the rearrangement of CT examination room in fever clinic,the rearrangement of human resources in radiology department,and the drafting of new operating procedures for radiologists who carry out CT examination on COVID-19 *** article also introduced the emergency management procedures of the department of radiology during the outbreak,and the experience of infection prevention for the staff of the department of radiology.

关键词： COVID-19 management reconfiguration radiology department

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Awareness of and attitudes towards infertility and its treatment： a cross-sectional survey of men in a United States primary care population

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Asian Journal of Andrology 2014年第6期16卷 858-863页

作者： Robert S Gerhard Chad WM Ritenour Michael Goodman Dipak Vashi Wayland Hsiao department of Urology School of Medicine Emory University Atlanta USA department of epidemiology and biostatistics Rollins School of Public Health Emory University Atlanta USA department of Medicine School of Medicine Emory University Atlanta USA department of Urology Kaiser Permanente Oakland Medical Center Oakland USA

Previous studies have described racial and socioeconomic disparities in the treatment of infertility. Patient factors such as attitudes and awareness may be contributing factors. Since primary care is often the setting that serves as an entry into other areas of medicine, we sought to evaluate men＇s attitudes and awareness of male infertility in the primary care setting. To do this, we performed a cross-sectional survey of men＇s attitudes toward men＇s health issues in 210 men from two primary care clinic waiting rooms in Atlanta, Georgia. The survey was self-administered with closed-ended question items and was approximately 20 min in length. Of the 310 men approached, 210 agreed to participate and returned completed surveys. Overall, 52% of men said they were ＂very＂ or ＂somewhat＂ familiar with infertility and 25% were familiar with treatments for infertility. Some men had heard of surgery （21%） and medication （35%） as treatments for male infertility. Awareness and familiarity with the condition was greater in high socioeconomic status men （i.e. college graduates or those with income 〉$100 k per year） but did not differ by race on multivariate analysis. Attitudes toward infertility varied by race with non-Caucasian men being more likely to indicate that infertility is a serious condition, to be concerned about infertility, and to believe it decreases a man＇s quality-of-life. Therefore, a lack of awareness, but not negative attitudes, may contribute to previously-described disparities in the treatment of infertility.

关键词： cross-sectional study health disparities infertility patient attitudes and awareness survey

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Linking key intervention timings to rapid declining effective reproduction number to quantify lessons against COVID-19

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Frontiers of Medicine 2020年第5期14卷 623-629页

作者： Zhihang Peng Wenyu Song Zhongxing Ding Quanquan Guan Xu Yang Qiaoqiao Xu Xu Wang Yankai Xia department of epidemiology and biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166China Key Laboratory of Modern Toxicology of Ministry of Education School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166China

Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is currently under a global pandemic *** efficiency of containment measures and epidemic tendency of typical countries should be *** this study,the efficiency of prevention and control measures in China,Italy,Iran,South Korea,and Japan was assessed,and the COVID-19 epidemic tendency among these countries was *** showed that the effective reproduction number(Re)in Wuhan,China increased almost exponentially,reaching a maximum of 3.98 before a lockdown and rapidly decreased to below 1 due to containment and mitigation strategies of the Chinese *** Re in Italy declined at a slower pace than that in China after the implementation of prevention and control *** Re in Iran showed a certain decline after the establishment of a national epidemic control command,and an evident stationary phase occurred because the best window period for the prevention and control of the epidemic was *** epidemic in Japan and South Korea reoccurred several times with the Re fluctuating *** epidemic has hardly rebounded in China due to the implementation of prevention and control strategies and the effective enforcement of *** countries suffering from the epidemic could learn from the Chinese experience in containing COVID-19.

关键词： COVID-19 epidemic control comparison Chinese experience

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Predictions of mortality related to four major cancers in China,2020 to 2030

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Cancer Communications 2021年第5期41卷 404-413页

作者： Ning Li Peng Wu Yubing Shen Cuihong Yang Luwen Zhang Yali Chen Zixing Wang Jingmei Jiang department of epidemiology and biostatistics Institute of Basic Medicine SciencesChinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic MedicinePeking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100005P.R.China

Background:Cancer has become a global health problem,and assessments of cancer mortality are important for effective public health policy-making and adequate resource *** this study,we aimed to predict the mortality rates and numbers of deaths related to four common cancers(lung,liver,stomach,and esophagus)in China from 2020 to 2030 and to estimate the corresponding cancer burden caused by population aging and tobacco ***:Cancer mortality data(2004-2017)were extracted from China’s death surveillance datasets,and China’s population figures(2020-2030)were obtained from the United Nations population *** prevalence data were retrieved from a World Health Organization global report,and relative risks of smoking and cancers were derived from large-scale Asian *** predicted the deaths related to the four major cancers and age-standardized mortality rates using joinpoint regression and linear regression *** tobacco smoking related burden of these four major cancers was estimated using the population attributable ***:Unlike lung cancer mortality which was predicted to continue to increase,the age-standardized mortality rates for digestive cancers(liver,stomach,and esophageal cancers)are predicted to decline over the next *** number of deaths caused by the four major cancers is predicted to increase from 1,490,304 in 2020 to 1,823,960 in *** age-specific mortality rates of the four major cancers are predicted to increase with age after 40-45 years,peaking in the age groups of 80-84 and ≥85 *** 2030,the combined number of deaths from the four examined cancers among adults aged ≥65 years is predicted to be 1,167,153,accounting for 64% of all deaths from these *** smoking is predicted to contribute to nearly 29% of deaths fromthese cancers,corresponding to 527,577 ***:The overall trend in the combined total mortality from four major cancers is predicted to decline over th

关键词： cancer mortality China esophageal cancer liver cancer lung cancer population aging prediction smoking stomach cancer

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The malaria transmission in Anhui province China

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第1期8卷 1-10页

作者： Eric Kamana Di Bai Heidi E.Brown Jijun Zhao Complexity Science Institute Qingdao UniversityQingdaoChina department of epidemiology and biostatistics Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public HealthThe University of ArizonaTucsonAZUSA

Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum cases have opposite trends in Anhui China in the past *** term and seasonal trends in the transmission rate of *** in Africa has been well studied,however that of *** transmitted by Anopheles sinensis in China has not been *** is a lot of work on the relationship between *** cases and climatic factors in China,with sometimes contradicting ***,how climatic factors affect transmission rate of *** in China is *** used Anhui province as an example to analyze the recent transmission dynamics where two types of malaria have been reported with differing *** examined breakpoints of the *** and *** malaria long term dynamics in the recent *** locally transmitted *** malaria,we analyzed the transmission rate and its seasonality using the combined human and mosquitos SIR-SI model with time-varied mosquito biting *** identified the effects of meteorological factors on the seasonality in transmission rate using a GAM *** the imported *** ma-laria,we analyzed the potential reason for the observed increase in *** breakpoints of *** and *** dynamics happened in a same year,*** seasonality in the transmission rate of *** malaria was high(42.4%)and was linearly associated with temperature and nonlinearly with *** abrupt increase in im-ported *** cases after the breakpoint was significantly related to the increased annual Chinese investment in *** the conditions of the existing vectors of malaria,long-term trends in climatic fac-tors,and increasing trend in migration to/from endemic areas and imported malaria cases,we should be cautious of the possibility of the reestablishment of malaria in regions where it has been eliminated or the establishment of other vector-borne diseases.

关键词： Breakpoint Transmissionrate Biting rate Seasonality Climatic factors

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Identifying prognostic factors for conservative treatment outcomes in servicemen with chronic exertional compartment syndrome treated at a rehabilitation center

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Military Medical Research 2018年第3期5卷 199-206页

作者： Mariette Z.Meulekamp Peter van der Wurff Alfred van der Meer Cees Lucas Research and Development Military Rehabilitation CentreAardenburgDoomthe Netherlands department of Physiotherapy HU University of Applied SciencesUtrechtthe Netherlands department of Clinical epidemiology Biostatistics and BioinformaticsAcademic Medical CentreUniversity of AmsterdamAmsterdamthe Netherlands

Background: Chronic exertional compartment syndrome(CECS) is a condition of pain induced by exercise, and it is characterized by muscle swelling and impaired muscle function in the lower leg. Given the diversity in the diagnosis and treatment of CECS, it is desirable to determine variables pertaining to prognosis and recovery. The purpose of this study is to identify prognostic factors for conservative treatment outcomes in servicemen with CECS who were treated at a Military Rehabilitation ***: Patients from all military services were referred from the special unit for lower leg pain at the Central Military Hospital, Utrecht, the Netherlands. Descriptive analysis was used to report the characteristics of the participants and their baseline measurements. Group differences were analyzed using a Student's t-test or MannWhitney U test, according to the normality of the data distribution. Differences between the pre-and postintervention outcomes were evaluated using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. To evaluate the magnitude of prognostic factors, a univariate logistic regression analysis was performed. The prognostic factors included age, body mass index, body fat percentage, self-efficacy beliefs, foot malalignment, intramuscular pressure, other comorbidities, protein and creatine use, smoking, alcohol use, complaint duration, physical demands, and duration of military ***: After the rehabilitation period, we observed 25 patients with a successful outcome, which was defined as a reduction in pain(≥2 points) during the capacity test measured using a verbal rating scale and 20 patients with an unsuccessful outcome. Factors demonstrating a limited increased odds ratio for an unsuccessful outcome included smoking, alcohol use, intramuscular pressure, a complaint duration of more than 6 months, and physical demands of service. However, these factors did not reach ***: This study did not identify any prognostic factors that predict the

关键词： Lower leg pain Observational study Rehabilitation

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Risk of second primary cancers after testicular cancer in East and West Germany： a focus on contralateral testicular cancers

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Asian Journal of Andrology 2014年第2期16卷 285-289,I0010,I0011页

作者： Carsten Rusner Brigitte Streller Christa Stegmaier Pietro Trocchi Oliver Kuss Katherine A McGlynn Britton Traberts Andreas Stang Institute of Clinical epidemiology Medical Faculty Martin-Luther-University of Halle-Wittenberg Halle (Saale) Common Cancer Registry of Berlin Berlin Saarland Cancer Registry Saarbrucken Institute of Medical epidemiology Biostatistics and Informatics Medical Faculty Martin-Luther-University of Halle-Wittenberg Halle (Saale) Germany Division of Cancer epidemiology and Genetics National Cancer Institute National Institutes of Health Bethesda MD department of epidemiology Scfloof of Public Heaftfl Boston University Boston MA USA.

Testicular cancer survival rates improved dramatically after cisplatin-based therapy was introduced in the 1970s. However, chemotherapy and radiation therapy are potentially carcinogenic. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of developing second primary cancers including the risk associated with primary histologic type （seminoma and non-seminoma） among testicular cancer survivors in Germany. We identified 16 990 and 1401 cases of testicular cancer in population-based cancer registries of East Germany （1961-1989 and 1996-2008） and Saarland （a federal state in West Germany; 1970-2008）, respectively. We estimated the risk of a second primary cancer using standardized incidence ratios （SIRs） with 95% confidence intervals （95% Cls）. To determine trends, we plotted model-based estimated annual SIRs. In East Germany, a total of 301 second primary cancers of any location were observed between 1961 and 1989 （SIR： 1.9; 95% Ch 1.7-2.1）, and 159 cancers （any location） were observed between 1996 and 2008 （SIR： 1.7; 95% Ch 1.4-2.0）. The SIRs for contralateral testicular cancer were increased in the registries with a range from 6.0 in Saarland to 13.9 in East Germany. The SIR for seminoma, in particular, was higher in East Germany compared to the other registries. We observed constant trends in the model-based SIRs for contralateral testicular cancers. The majority of reported SIRs of other cancer sites including histology-specific risks showed low precisions of estimated effects, likely due to small sample sizes. Testicular cancer patients are at increased risk especially for cancers of the contralateral testis and should receive intensive follow-ups.

关键词： cancer registry incidence neoplasms second primary testicular neoplasms

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