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A Novel Rolling and Fractional-ordered Grey System Model and Its Application for Predicting Industrial Electricity Consumption

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2024年第2期33卷 207-231页

作者： Wenhao Zhou Hailin Li Zhiwei Zhang college of Business Administration Huaqiao UniversityQuanzhou 362021China college of Business Administration Capital University of Economics and BusinessBeijing 100070China

Accurate and reasonable prediction of industrial electricity consumption is of great significance for promoting regional green transformation and optimizing the energy ***,the regional power system is complicated and uncertain,affected by multiple factors including climate,population and *** paper incorporates structure expansion,parameter optimization and rolling mechanism into a system forecasting framework,and designs a novel rolling and fractional-ordered grey system model to forecast the industrial electricity consumption,improving the accuracy of the traditional grey *** optimal fractional order is obtained by using the particle swarm optimization algorithm,which enhances the model ***,the proposed model is employed to forecast and analyze the changing trend of industrial electricity consumption in Fujian *** results show that industrial electricity consumption in Fujian will maintain an upward growth and it is expected to 186.312 billion kWh in *** with other seven benchmark prediction models,the proposed grey system model performs best in terms of both simulation and prediction performance metrics,providing scientific reference for regional energy planning and electricity market operation.

关键词： Electricity consumption grey system theory prediction model fractional order

Transforming agri-food systems for multiple wins in nutrition,inclusion and environment

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2024年第2期23卷 355-358页

作者： Shenggen Fan Qiran Zhao Jingjing Wang Academy of Global Food economics and Policy/college of economics and management China Agricultural UniversityBeijing 100083China

The call for agri-food system transformation is urgent in many global development agendas(UN 2023).Food systems have contributed to economic prosperity and feeding the world,but they are also associated with numerous challenges,including climate change,continued hunger,poor diets and malnutrition,and increasing disparities(Webb et al.2020;Fanzo et al.2021).

关键词： continued nutrition urgent

Group Decision-Making Method of Entry Policy During a Pandemic

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Tsinghua Science and Technology 2024年第1期29卷 56-65页

作者： Chunsheng Cui Baiqiu Li Xianfeng Chen college of Computer and Information Engineering Henan University of Economics and LawZhengzhou 450046China Tourism college Beijing Union UniversityBeijing 100101China

Omicron,the new mutant coronavirus,has spread rapidly globally,attracting close attention from different stakeholders *** complex and constantly changing epidemic situation has had a new impact on the ***,this paper focuses on the characteristics of the rapid spread of the COVID-19 variant ***,epidemic prevention experts conduct preliminary screening as part of the existing epidemic plan database according to the current local situation,after which they sort the alternatives deemed more suitable for the *** the decision-makers identify the most divergent expert group,plan for consultation and adjustments,and finally obtain the plan with the smallest *** article aims to integrate the experts'opinions with the method of minimizing the differences,which can maximize the expert consensus and help organize the schemes that best meet the epidemic *** experts'negotiation and iteration of the differences in the initial plan align with the current complex and dynamic epidemic situation and are of great significance to the rapid formulation of plans to achieve effective prevention and control.

关键词： epidemic prevention and control group decision-making alternative ranking control policy

The multiple roles of crop structural change in productivity,nutrition and environment in China:A decomposition analysis

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2024年第5期23卷 1763-1773页

作者： Xiangyang Zhang Yumei Zhang Shenggen Fan college of economics and management China Agricultural UniversityBejing 100083China Academy of Global Food economics and Policy China Agricultural UniversityBejing 100083China

China's crop structure has undergone significant changes in the last two decades since 2000,with an increase in the share of cereals,vegetables,and fruit,squeezing out other *** a result,land productivity,nutrient supply,and carbon emissions have *** to reallocate limited farmland among crops to achieve the multiple goals of agrifood systems becomes an important *** study explores the sources of land productivity and nutrition supply growth and carbon emissions reduction,and identifies the multiple roles of crop structural change from 2003 to 2020 based on a decomposition *** results reveal that the growth within crops is still the primary driver in land productivity and nutrition supply and the reduction in carbon ***,structural change also plays various roles at different *** 2003 to 2010,crop structural change increased the total calorie supply but lowered land productivity and contributed at least 70%of the total growth of carbon *** crop structure was relatively stable,and their effects were modest from 2010 to *** 2015 to 2020,the crop structural change began to play a greater role and generate synergistic effects in improving land productivity,micronutrient supply,and reducing carbon emissions,contributing to approximately a quarter of the growth of land productivity and 30%of total carbon emissions *** results suggest that strategies for crop structural change should comprehensively consider its multiple impacts,aiming to achieve co-benefits while minimizing trade-offs.

关键词： crop structural change land productivity nutrition carbon emissions

Repositioning fertilizer manufacturing subsidies for improving food security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2024年第2期23卷 430-443页

作者： Zongyi Wu Xiaolong Feng Yumei Zhang Shenggen Fan Academy of Global Food economics and Policy China Agricultural UniversityBeijing 100083China college of economics and management China Agricultural UniversityBeijing 100083China

China removed fertilizer manufacturing subsidies from 2015 to 2018 to bolster market-oriented reforms and foster environmentally sustainable ***,the impact of this policy reform on food security and the environment remains inadequately ***,although green and low-carbon technologies offer environmental advantages,their widespread adoption is hindered by prohibitively high *** study analyzes the impact of removing fertilizer manufacturing subsidies and explores the potential feasibility of redirecting fertilizer manufacturing subsidies to invest in the diffusion of these *** the China Agricultural University Agri-food Systems model,we analyzed the potential for achieving mutually beneficial outcomes regarding food security and environmental *** findings indicate that removing fertilizer manufacturing subsidies has reduced greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from agricultural activities by 3.88 million metric tons,with minimal impact on food *** fertilizer manufacturing subsidies to invest in green and low-carbon technologies,including slow and controlled-release fertilizer,organic-inorganic compound fertilizers,and machine deep placement of fertilizer,emerges as a strategy to concurrently curtail GHG emissions,ensure food security,and secure robust economic ***,we propose a comprehensive set of government interventions,including subsidies,field guidance,and improved extension systems,to promote the widespread adoption of these technologies.

关键词： food security fertilizer manufacturing subsidies agri-food systems greenhouse gas emissions

Predicting carbon storage of mixed broadleaf forests based on the finite mixture model incorporating stand factors,site quality,and aridity index

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Forest Ecosystems 2024年第3期11卷 276-286页

作者： Yanlin Wang Dongzhi Wang Dongyan Zhang Qiang Liu Yongning Li college of Forestry Hebei Agricultural UniversityBaoding071001China college of economics and management Hebei Agricultural UniversityBaoding071001China

The diameter distribution function(DDF)is a crucial tool for accurately predicting stand carbon storage(CS).The current key issue,however,is how to construct a high-precision DDF based on stand factors,site quality,and aridity index to predict stand CS in multi-species mixed forests with complex *** study used data from70 survey plots for mixed broadleaf Populus davidiana and Betula platyphylla forests in the Mulan Rangeland State Forest,Hebei Province,China,to construct the DDF based on maximum likelihood estimation and finite mixture model(FMM).Ordinary least squares(OLS),linear seemingly unrelated regression(LSUR),and back propagation neural network(BPNN)were used to investigate the influences of stand factors,site quality,and aridity index on the shape and scale parameters of DDF and predicted stand CS of mixed broadleaf *** results showed that FMM accurately described the stand-level diameter distribution of the mixed *** and *** forests;whereas the Weibull function constructed by MLE was more accurate in describing species-level diameter *** combined variable of quadratic mean diameter(Dq),stand basal area(BA),and site quality improved the accuracy of the shape parameter models of FMM;the combined variable of Dq,BA,and De Martonne aridity index improved the accuracy of the scale parameter *** to OLS and LSUR,the BPNN had higher accuracy in the re-parameterization process of ***,LSUR,and BPNN overestimated the CS of *** but underestimated the CS of *** in the large diameter classes(DBH≥18 cm).BPNN accurately estimated stand-and species-level CS,but it was more suitable for estimating stand-level CS compared to species-level CS,thereby providing a scientific basis for the optimization of stand structure and assessment of carbon sequestration capacity in mixed broadleaf forests.

关键词： Weibull function Finite mixture model Linear seemingly unrelated regression Back propagation neural network Carbon storage

Carbon Abatement Cost-Sharing Strategy for Electric Power Sector Based on Incentive and Subsidy Mechanisms

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Energy Engineering 2024年第10期121卷 2907-2935页

作者： Hui Wang Wen Wang Wenhui Zhao college of economics and management Shanghai University of Electric PowerShanghai200090China

The green and low carbon transition and development of the electricity industry is the most crucial task in realizing the“dual-carbon target”,and it is urgent to explore the incentive and subsidy mechanism to promote green electricity consumption and the cost-sharing strategy of carbon reduction,to alleviate the pressure of carbon abatement cost of each subject of the electricity supply *** this background,this paper takes into account the low-carbon subsidies provided by the government and the incentive subsidies for users,and studies the optimal decision-making of each subject in the electricity supply chain,so that each of them can obtain the optimal profit and achieve carbon emission reduction at the same ***,taking into account the direct power purchase mode of large users and the electricity-selling companies emerging after the reform of the power sales side,we have established a cooperative mechanism for sharing the cost of carbon emission reduction in the electricity supply chain and clarified the relationship between the supply and demand of electricity among the main ***,considering government low-carbon subsidies and user incentive subsidies,the optimal decisionmaking model is established under two scenarios of decentralized and centralized cooperative games in the supply chain,respectively,with the objective of maximizing profits and carbon reduction *** for the optimal proportion of carbon abatement costs shared by each participant in the electricity supply chain in achieving game ***,we analyze the role of the government’s low-carbon subsidies,users’incentive subsidies,and other factors on the profit and carbon reduction effect of the electricity industry through the example analysis and further analyze the impact of carbon abatement cost-sharing measures to provide recommendations for the electricity industry to realize low-carbon abatement and make decisions.

关键词： Electricity supply chain incentive subsidy mechanisms carbon abatement cost-sharing green electricity consumption

Downstream Competition and Upstream Innovation:Theory and Evidence from China

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China Finance and Economic Review 2024年第1期13卷 67-87页

作者： Jing Dai Guanchun Liu Ziqi Ye Haiou Mao Yongwei Ye School of Finance Hubei University of Economics Lingnan college Sun Yatsen University School of Business Administration Zhongnan University of Economics and Law college of economics and management Huazhong Agricultural University School of Public economics and management Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Competition is the catalyst of corporate innovation,which is the foundation of a country's core *** the view of vertical industrial chain,this paper examines how downstream competition affects upstream firms'innovation *** innovation helps reduce the production cost of each product,increasing demand of intermediate products caused by downstream competition enhances the marginal revenue of upstream firms'innovation,thus leading to an innovation incentive *** identify causality,we utilize China's WTO accession,a quasinatural experiment,to calculate downstream competition combined with import tariff reduction and input-output table,and then run a difference-in-difference *** the data of Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and State Intellectual Property Office,our results find that downstream competition has a significantly positive impact on upstream firms'innovation,and this effect is more pronounced in firms with less industry competition,greater initial innovation capacity and weaker financial ***,the number of firms,the degree of industry competition and the scale of intermediate products in the downstream sector increase,confirming the market size *** sum,our findings document that downstream competition can motivate upstream firms to innovate through vertical industrial chain,providing some useful insights for China to build a fair market competition environment and promote innovation-driven growth regime.

关键词： downstream competition upstream firms'innovation vertical industrial chain market size effect

The impact of supply chain resilience on customer satisfaction and financial performance:A combination of contingency and configuration approaches

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Journal of management Science and Engineering 2024年第1期9卷 38-52页

作者： Baofeng Huo Dan Li Minhao Gu college of management and economics Tianjin UniversityTianjin300072China

Supply chain resilience(SCR)refers to a supply chain's(SC's)ability to recover from disruptions timely and *** study uses a combination of contingency and configuration approaches to examine the direct and contingent relationships between SCR dimensions(i.e.,internal,supplier,and customer resilience)and *** analyzes survey data collected from 206 Chinese *** results show that the three SCR dimensions are positively related to customer satisfaction,whereas customer resilience has no direct contribution to financial *** resilience moderates the relationship between supplier resilience and performance(negative for customer satisfaction and positive for financial performance).A taxonomy for SCR was developed based on internal,supplier,and customer resilience,providing a holistic perspective for examining the performance discrepancies among four different SCR patterns:high externalleaning,high uniform,medium uniform,and low *** findings offer insights for managers in building SCR from the crisis-management process.

关键词： Supply chain resilience Risk management Taxonomy Performance China