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A Novel Rolling and Fractional-ordered Grey System Model and Its Application for Predicting Industrial Electricity Consumption

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2024年第2期33卷 207-231页

作者： Wenhao Zhou Hailin Li Zhiwei Zhang college of Business administration Huaqiao UniversityQuanzhou 362021China college of Business administration Capital University of Economics and BusinessBeijing 100070China

Accurate and reasonable prediction of industrial electricity consumption is of great significance for promoting regional green transformation and optimizing the energy ***,the regional power system is complicated and uncertain,affected by multiple factors including climate,population and *** paper incorporates structure expansion,parameter optimization and rolling mechanism into a system forecasting framework,and designs a novel rolling and fractional-ordered grey system model to forecast the industrial electricity consumption,improving the accuracy of the traditional grey *** optimal fractional order is obtained by using the particle swarm optimization algorithm,which enhances the model ***,the proposed model is employed to forecast and analyze the changing trend of industrial electricity consumption in Fujian *** results show that industrial electricity consumption in Fujian will maintain an upward growth and it is expected to 186.312 billion kWh in *** with other seven benchmark prediction models,the proposed grey system model performs best in terms of both simulation and prediction performance metrics,providing scientific reference for regional energy planning and electricity market operation.

关键词： Electricity consumption grey system theory prediction model fractional order

DYNAMIC PORTFOLIO CHOICE UNDER THE TIME-VARYING,JUMPS,AND KNIGHT UNCERTAINTY OF ASSET RETURN PROCESS

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2012年第5期25卷 896-908页

作者： Chaolin HE Weidong MENG School of Management Engineering Anhui Polytechnic University college of economics and Business administration Chongqing University

By introducing a stochastic element to the double-jump diffusion framework to measure the Knight uncertainty of asset return process, this paper builds the model of dynamic portfolio choice, which maximizes the expected utility of terminal portfolio wealth. Through specifying the state function of uncertainty-aversion, it utilizes the max-min method to derive the analytical solution of the model to study the effect of the time-varying, jumps, and Knight uncertainty of asset return process on dynamic portfolio choice and their interactions. Results of comparative analysis show： The time-varying results in positive or negative intertemporal hedging demand of portfolio, which depends on the coefficient of investor＇s risk aversion and the correlation coefficient between return shift and volatility shift; the jumps in asset return overall reduce investor＇s demand for the risky asset, which can be enhanced or weakened by the jumps in volatility; due to the existing of the Knight uncertainty, the investor avoids taking large position on risky asset, and the resulting is the improving of portfolio＇s steady and immunity. At last, an empirical study is done based on the samples of Shanghai Exchange Composite Index monthly return data from January 1997 to December 2009, which not only tests the theoretical analysis but also demonstrates that the proposed method in the paper is useful from the aspect of portfotio＇s equivalent utility.

关键词： Conditional characteristic function dynamic portfolio jumps Knight uncertainty spec-tral generalized method of moments time-varying.

BILATERAL RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES:POLICY PRIORITIZATION WITH THE ANP

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2013年第2期22卷 202-226页

作者： Orrin COOPER Qingxing DONG Fogelman college of Business and economics University of MemphisMemphis School of Business administration Northeastern University

Improving relations between the People＇s Republic of China （PRC） and the United States of America （US） and ensuring that they work together as allies rather than as competitors can serve as a stabilizing force against armed conflict, particularly with surrounding nations. The economic, social, and political relationships between the PRC and US have progressed along a hilly journey. As the second largest economy in the world, the PRC has continued to develop its military and is determined to climb the technological ladder. This growth has led the US and the PRC to be referred to as a G-2 of superpowers. As the US hegemony continues to weaken this G-2 relationship is becoming more important. With significant economic, political, and security issues at stake it is crucial that efforts to strengthen these relations are prioritized and implemented. A rigorous prioritization process, the Analytic Network Process （ANP） is used herein to prioritize the efforts and initiatives in the G-2 relationship. The model is presented with results and the extensive sensitivity analysis present additional insight into the suggested solutions.

关键词： The analytic network process (ANP) policy making China United States

HOW DOES THE RETAILER MAKE PRICING DECISION WHEN CONSUMERS HAVE JUSTICE REFERENCE PRICE

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2015年第4期24卷 433-449页

作者： Huimin Liu Hui Yu School of economics and Business administration Chongqing University

A series of studies demonstrate that consumers have fairness judgments about the retailer＇s price which will impact their shopping decisions. Thus, it is necessary for the retailer to take consumers＇ fairness concerns into account when setting his pricing policies. We assume that when the retailer＇s price is lower than a consumer＇s justice reference price, the consumer is likely to sense a positive price unfairness that will lead to increased consumer utility, and when the retailer＇s price is higher than a consumer＇s justice reference price, the consumer is likely to sense a negative price unfairness-that will have a negative effect on consumer utility. According to the information conditions of the consumers＇ justice reference price, the retailer should consider three situations： certain information, random information and partial information. In all situations, we show that the retailer has a unique optimal pricing strategy. Finally, through numerical examples, we find that our distribution-free policies perform almost the same as the results under the distributions that maximize the entropy. Our results reveal that it is important for the retailer to consider consumers＇ fairness concerns, otherwise he may suffer losses when Pc is very small.

关键词： Justice reference price certain information random information partial information,pricing strategy

Simplifying the Nonlinear Continuous Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2017年第4期30卷 901-920页

作者： SU Zhixiong QI Jianxun WEI Hanying Business administration college Nanchang Institute of Technology School of economics and Management North China Electric Power University

Equivalent simplification is an effective method for solving large-scale complex problems. In this paper, the authors simplify a classic project scheduling problem, which is the nonlinear continuous time-cost tradeoff problem(TCTP). Simplifying TCTP is a simple path problem in a critical path method(CPM) network. The authors transform TCTP into a simple activity float problem and design a complex polynomial algorithm for its solution. First, the authors discover relationships between activity floats and path lengths by studying activity floats from the perspective of path instead of ***, the authors perform simplification and improve the efficiency and accuracy of the solution by deleting redundant activities and narrowing the duration intervals of non-redundant activities. Finally,the authors compare our method with current methods. The relationships between activity floats and path lengths provide new approaches for other path and correlative project problems.

关键词： Activity floats CPM networks operational research simplification time-cost tradeoff.

PATH PROBLEM SIMPLIFICATION WITH DESIRED BOUNDED LENGTHS IN ACYCLIC NETWORKS

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2015年第4期24卷 500-519页

作者： Zhixiong Su Jianxun Qi Hanying Wei Business administration college Nanchang Institute of Technology School of economics and Management North China Electric Power University

Path determination is a fundamental problem of operations research. Current solutions mainly focus on the shortest and longest paths. We consider a more generalized problem; specifically, we consider the path problem with desired bounded lengths （DBL path problem）. This problem has extensive applications; however, this problem is much harder, especially for large-scale problems. An effective approach to this problem is equivalent simplification. We focus on simplifying the problem in acyclic networks and creating a path length model that simplifies relationships between various path lengths. Based on this model, we design polynomial algorithms to compute the shortest, longest, second shortest, and second longest paths that traverse any arc. Furthermore, we design a polynomial algorithm for the equivalent simplification of the is O（m）, where m is the number of arcs. DBL path problem. The complexity of the algorithm

关键词： Operations research path problem with desired bounded lengths equivalent simplification,path length model acyclic network

Production scheduling problems of steelmaking-continuous casting process in dynamic production environment

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Journal of Iron and Steel Research International 2017年第6期24卷 586-594页

作者： Zhong Zheng Jian-yu Long Xiao-qiang Gao college of Materials Science and Engineering Chongqing University Chongqing 400045 China college of economics and Business administration Chongqing University Chongqing 400044 China

A concept of production scenario for the steelmaking continuous casting production process and the mathe- matical description of such concept were proposed. The production scenario was described with the varia- tion of the equipment status and the production material properties based on the executing production schedule. Then, the dynamic characteristics of the production process could be described with the evolu tion process of production scenario. Through analyzing the influence of the dynamic production scenario on production scheduling, three key points about the scheduling problems were identified： the problem for integrating the schedules of different batches that is non-neglected when making a schedule, the problem for matching the material flow with the schedule that should be solved when implementing a schedule, and the problem for eliminating the deviations between the initial schedule and implemented schedule that should be solved when rescheduling in a disturbed environment. Finally, a set of experiments were con- ducted, and the results demonstrated that making the production schedule and solving the rescheduling problem for steelmaking continuous casting process with addressing the above three problems improve the adaptability of the schedule in dynamic environment.

关键词： SchedulingReschedulingSteelmakingContinuous castingDisturbanceProduction scenario

Human-cyber-physical system for production and operation decision optimization in smart steel plants

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2022年第2期65卷 247-260页

作者： ZHENG Zhong ZHANG KaiTian GAO XiaoQiang college of Materials Science and Engineering Chongqing UniversityChongqing 400045China college of economics and Business administration Chongqing UniversityChongqing 400045China

Based on the core developmental demands of smart steel manufacturing plants, this review analyzes the essential characteristics of the steel manufacturing process and its implications for production and operation decision optimization(PODO). A discussion on the potential application of technologies, including the Industrial Internet, big data, cloud computing, and 5 G, in the PODO of smart steel plants based on the Industry 4.0 intelligent manufacturing and human-cyber-physical system(HCPS) is also presented. An adaptive update conception for a new dual-level cyber system(for management control and unit operation) of a flatstructured HCPS for steel plants is proposed to eliminate issues such as the hierarchical structure of the cyber system, the occurrence of data islands, and weak intelligence in PODO ability. Additionally, the review provided an in-depth analysis of the closed-loop decision logic of a dual-level HCPS. The critical technologies required for developing the HCPS model include data platforms and their associated application technologies, intelligent modeling, human-machine collaboration, and platform-based integration. Finally, suggestions are proposed to develop smart steel plants, including concept renewal, technological integration,and talent training.

关键词： HCPS smart steel plants PODO management control unit operation

Dynamic Pricing Model of E-Commerce Platforms Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2021年第4期127卷 291-307页

作者： Chunli Yin Jinglong Han college of economics and administration Tonghua Normal UniversityJilin130000China Department of administration Section Tonghua Normal UniversityJilin130000China

With the continuous development of artificial intelligence technology,its application field has gradually *** further apply the deep reinforcement learning technology to the field of dynamic pricing,we build an intelligent dynamic pricing system,introduce the reinforcement learning technology related to dynamic pricing,and introduce existing research on the number of suppliers(single supplier and multiple suppliers),environmental models,and selection algorithms.A two-period dynamic pricing game model is designed to assess the optimal pricing strategy for e-commerce platforms under two market conditions and two consumer participation *** first step is to analyze the pricing strategies of e-commerce platforms in mature markets,analyze the optimal pricing and profits of various enterprises under different strategy combinations,compare different market equilibriums and solve the Nash ***,assuming that all consumers are naive in the market,the pricing strategy of the duopoly e-commerce platform in emerging markets is *** comparing and analyzing the optimal pricing and total profit of each enterprise under different strategy combinations,the subgame refined Nash equilibrium is ***,assuming that the market includes all experienced consumers,the pricing strategy of the duopoly e-commerce platform in emerging markets is analyzed.

关键词： Deep reinforcement learning e-commerce platform dynamic evaluation game model pricing strategy